Yankees vs. Orioles Odds & Picks: Back Bronx Bombers On Monday

The Orioles bounced off to a head start to the season over the rest of the American League East, sweeping the Red Sox at Fenway Park over three games. The Yankees underwhelmed fans in the first weekend of baseball, only scoring eight runs in their first three games played against Toronto.

Jorge López battles Jordan Montgomery in a pairing of back-end starters, as the Yankees look to get back on track with last season’s success, while the Orioles look to keep surprising AL East fans.

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Baltimore Orioles

López was amongst the league’s worst in allowed exit velocity in 2020 (92.8 mph, according to Statcast). His most redeeming quality is the lack of walks while he is on the hill, but that could be due to the amount of hard hits he will allow. This has been a trend outside of the shortened 2020. His barrel percentage in 2019 was 11.9%, leading to an adjusted slugging percentage (xSLG) of .509. All in all, these are rough indicators as he heads into facing a Yankee lineup ready to awaken.

That said, the Orioles' lineup looked ready to feast on Sunday mixing together 17 hits and 11 runs off of Red Sox pitching. Cedric Mullins put together a 5-for-5 day with three doubles, but the chances of this same lineup stringing together this many hits against a pitcher with a ground-ball percentage over 40% seems tough to match.

New York Yankees

Montgomery, in a complete contrast to López, only allowed an exit velocity of 84.6 MPH in 44 innings last season, which is about as impeccable as you can get on the hill. The sinker-baller should have a slight pitching advantage between the two, especially if he can keep the ball low in the strike zone.

Thus far, Gary Sánchez and Clint Frazier are the only two Yankee hitters who have hit up to Bronx standards in the early going. This will not continue. Eventually, the other juggernauts in the lineup (DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Gleybar Torres) will get going, and I believe López is the player who can permit that to happen.

Bear in mind, the Yankees still have a solid bullpen, even with Zack Britton and Justin Wilson sidelined. Aroldis Chapman, Darren O’Day and Chad Green are good options out in relief after Montgomery induces grounders for five-plus innings. Giving the Orioles' lineup different looks from a soft-tossing sinker-baller, a side-armer in O’Day and an absolute flamethrower in Chapman will keep them off balance.

In addition, the Orioles like to swing the bat. They ranked third-last in walk percentage (7.3%) in MLB in 2020. Yes, they do not have exactly the same batting order, but this is something to watch with those who returned to the order.

Pairing this issue with a starting pitcher for the Yankees who wants hitters to swing early seems like an absolute nightmare for an impatient Baltimore lineup. If the Orioles are swinging early in the count and not waiting for their pitch to drive in the air, it could be a long day for them. Montgomery also only walked 4.7% of hitters last year, so opponents should be prepared to have the ball in the zone.

Orioles-Yankees Pick

This Yankees lineup is too powerful to continue to struggle against López. Montgomery is the antithesis of the type of pitcher this Baltimore lineup can beat. If he can force the Orioles to pound the ball into the dirt and swing early, it could be a long night for them. This would allow Montgomery to go deeper into the game and hand a lead off to three strong ‘pen pieces to close the game.

We'll back New York's run line against Baltimore on Monday night.

Pick: Yankees -1.5 -113 (play to -125)