Sunday MLB Betting Odds & Picks for Rockies vs. Giants: Back the Under With Marquez Away From Coors (Sunday, April 11)
Dustin Bradford/Getty Images. Pictured: German Marquez of the Rockies.
- To no one's surprise the Rockies' offense has been poor away from Denver.
- However, Colorado will be aided Sunday by starting pitcher German Marquez, who has been impressive on the road.
- Tanner McGrath breaks down the game between the Rockies and Giants, with the expectation both offenses will falter at Oracle Park.
Rockies vs. Giants Odds
| Rockies Odds | +104 |
| Giants Odds | -112 |
| Over/Under | 9 (-109/-109) |
| Time | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLBTV |
| Odds as of Saturday evening and via PointsBet. | |
The Giants barely held their ground in this series, winning the first two games at home by just three total runs.
The Rockies have now fallen to 3-6 on the year, and are still in contention as one of the worst teams in baseball.
The Rockies offense continues to stall. However, I like their starter today in German Marquez, and I think he can keep Colorado competitive.
The Giants will be looking to sweep this series and move to 6-3 on the young season. However, will Anthony DeSclafani and Co. be able to do it?
Let's dive into this series' rubber match.
Colorado Rockies
The Rockies are, predictably, not a good offensive team away from Coors Field.
On the road in 2020, the Rockies finished 27th in wRC+ and 23rd against right-handed pitchers (San Francisco’s DeSclafani is a righty). In this series, the Rockies have managed just four runs on 12 hits over 13 2/3 innings against righties Johnny Cueto and Logan Webb.
As mentioned, Colorado is on the brink of being the worst team in baseball. However, the starting pitching has kept them alive recently.
The Rockies starters have posted a 3.4 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in early-season play so far. The numbers aren’t great on the surface, but they also played seven games at Coors Field, and three of them were against the Dodgers.
Hopefully, Marquez can give Colorado a chance in this one.
Starting Pitcher: German Marquez
The most important thing to know about Marquez is his home vs. away splits. This seems obvious given he plays for Colorado, but it’s more impressive once you see it.
Here are his splits since the beginning of 2019:
- Home: 116 1/3 IP, 5.72 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, .346 wOBA, 124 Ks, 38 BBs
- Away: 131 1/3 IP, 3.43 ERA, .99 WHIP, .247 wOBA, 115 Ks, 24 BBs
It’s clear that a Rockies pitcher would have better numbers away from the hitter’s paradise that is Coors Field, but to have a sub-1.0 WHIP over 131 road innings is really good. Plus, Marquez has just a 4.6 BB% in those starts, which would’ve been the fifth-best in baseball last season.
Marquez can flat-out pitch, his numbers are just inflated in Denver. However, in two home starts this season, he’s been pretty good. Marquez has allowed four runs on 11 hits through 10 innings this season.
Given Marquez’s home start, I have high expectations for his road debut.
San Francisco Giants
The Giants are a particularly dominant offense at home against right-handed pitching. At home in 2020, San Francisco finished third in wRC+ and sixth in wRC+ against righties.
The Giants have an exciting lineup. Evan Longoria (who may be out of the lineup again due to illness) has hit three home runs this season already, and Buster Posey has hit two long-balls himself.
The most exciting player in the Giants lineup, Mike Yastrzemski, has yet to break out in 2021. He's recorded just three hits and three walks in 28 PAs this season, and outside of a home-run has recorded zero extra-base hits this season.
After a breakout 2020 season, Giants fans are looking forward to Yastrzemski's bat getting hot again.
Starting Pitcher: Anthony DeSclafani
DeSclafani made his 2021 debut with the Giants last Monday after having the worst season of his career in 2020 with Cincinnati.
Descalfani posted career highs in ERA, WHIP, FIP and walks per nine innings last season. He started seven games and managed just 33 and 2/3 innings.
However, he pitched solid against the Padres last Monday, where he allowed just one run on four hits over five innings. Plus, that’s building off a spring training where he allowed just three runs on 9 2/3 innings while striking out 12 and walking just three.
So, DeSclafani is riding a mini hot streak coming into this one.
Rockies-Giants Pick
I'm playing the under in this matchup.
While the Giants are a great home offense, Marquez has been nails at Oracle Park in recent years. In three starts at San Francisco, Marquez has thrown 20 innings and posted a 1.35 ERA, a 3.06 FIP and a .80 WHIP. He's allowed just 20 hits in those innings.
Moreover, I don't think DeSclafani is a great pitcher, but I think his slider could give the Rockies trouble. Not only were the Rockies a bottom-10 team in wSL last season, per FanGraphs, but the slider is DeSclafani's putaway pitch. He threw the slider more than any other pitch in 2020, and his putaway percentage was 22.7% on the slider, per Baseball Savant.
Also, the Giants and Rockies haven't been scoring a lot coming into this matchup. After last night's game, the Giants are now 6-2 to the under this season while the Rockies are 6-3.
There were just four runs scored in the first game of this series and seven in the second game. I'm banking on these pitchers working their strengths and keeping the bats at bay in this series' rubber match.
Pick: Under 8 (-109)
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