MLB Betting Odds & Picks for Astros vs. Yankees: Bet Wednesday’s Over (May 5)

MLB Betting Odds & Picks for Astros vs. Yankees: Bet Wednesday’s Over (May 5) article feature image
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Alex Trautwig/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Giancarlo Stanton

  • Two top-end lineups combined with two untrustworthy pitchers presents an over opportunity.
  • MLB betting analyst Mike Ianniello breaks down his pick on the total for Astros-Yankees on Tuesday night.

Astros vs. Yankees Odds

Astros Odds +115
Yankees Odds -140
Over/Under 9
Time Wednesday, 7:05 p.m. ET
TV YES
Odds as of Wednesday morning and via BetMGM.

On Tuesday night, baseball fans finally got the most anticipated matchup of the regular season: The Astros’ first trip to Yankees Stadium since Houston’s sign stealing cheating scandal became public in 2019.

The Bronx crowd was on their feet and yelling for the entire game to help power the Yankees to a 7-3 win. The New York faithful chanted expletives at Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa for the entire night as the two went a combined 0-for-8.

New York and Houston each sit third in their respective divisions, but I would not expect either to stay down there very long. The Yankees are 7-3 over their last 10 and have won four straight as their bats seem to have finally found life while the Astros are 6-4 over their last 10, though their +28 run differential is tied for the most in the AL and a pretty good indicator they’re playing much better than their record.

Houston Astros

After making only one start last season, 24-year-old Luis Garcia has made three this season, as well as two appearances out of the bullpen. Despite just a 2.70 ERA, Garcia has an 0-3 record — he’s allowed six runs on 15 hits and racked up 20 strikeouts over 20 innings.

In his most recent start, he allowed just one run and three hits over five innings but earned the loss.

Garcia throws four main pitches: A fastball, slider, cutter and changeup with the occasional curveball. He’s had success with his cutter and slider, but the fastball and changeup.

The Astros’ strength is once again their bats, as they sit fifth in the league in runs per game. They rank in the top 10 in average, OPS, wOBA and wRC+. Yuli Gurriel and Michael Brantley have been their two best hitters, batting .333 and .327 respectively. Correa, Yordan Alvarez and Alex Bregman have all been solid as well.

For the second straight season (since they stopped using trash cans?), Altuve has struggled at the plate. He’s batting .247 with a .338 slugging percentage and has just one home run all season. He has just one hit in his last 25 at bats.

New York Yankees

Jordan Montgomery will make his sixth start of the season for the Yankees and has struggled against everybody except Baltimore. In his two starts against the Orioles he allowed two runs in 11 innings. In his three other starts, he surrendered 11 runs over 15 2/3 innings.

The 28-year-old lefty has just never really seemed to put it all together. His 4.39 ERA is actually an improvement from last season but his 8.10 K/9 is down from the past two years. Montgomery throws his changeup, sinker, cutter and curveball all around 22% of the time, and while his curveball has been excellent, his changeup and cutter have both been hit hard this season.

After a painfully bad start to the season, the Yankees have finally looked like the Bronx Bombers against over the past two weeks. Over the span, the Yanks rank ninth in runs, sixth in OPS, fifth in wOBA, third in wRC+ and second in home runs.

Giancarlo Stanton has been absolutely on fire recently, he is batting .420 and slugging .720 in his last 15 games, and batting an astonishing .609 and slugging .826 over the last seven games. He leads the league in hits over both time frames.

In game one of this series last night, Stanton went 4-5 with a double, home run and three RBIs.

Astros-Yankees Pick

It took a while for them to get going, but the Yankees are finally swinging the bats like the preseason American League favorites everybody expected to see this season.

Stanton has been playing like a man possessed while Aaron Judge and DJ LeMahieu are finally starting to look like their normal selves.

Luis Garcia has just four career starts under his belt, and now has to go into Yankee Stadium and deal with an angry and hostile crowd. Garcia has not pitched very long into games and the Astros bullpen ranks just 16th in ERA and used four relievers in last night’s game.

Montgomery has looked sub-par against any team not named the Orioles and has given up the long ball. The Astros’ lineup is deep enough that they are capable of putting up plenty of runs, even with a struggling Altuve.

With two top-end lineups and two untrustworthy pitchers, the over 9 runs is the best play for this one.

Pick: Over 9 (-114)

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