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Yankees vs. Blue Jays Odds & Picks: How To Find Betting Value Tuesday Night

Yankees vs. Blue Jays Odds & Picks: How To Find Betting Value Tuesday Night article feature image

Jim McIsaac/Getty Images. Pictured: Jameson Taillon.

  • Both the Blue Jays and Yankees potentially have strong matchups against the opposing pitcher on Tuesday night.
  • Jameson Taillon is looking to regain his past form while Hyun-Jin Ryu shut down the Yanks on Opening Day.
  • MLB betting analyst BJ Cunningham breaks down how he'd bet both teams in this AL East matchup.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays Odds

Yankees Odds +108
Blue Jays Odds -125
Over/Under 9
Time Tuesday, 7:07 p.m. ET
Odds as of Monday and via DraftKings

The Yankees opened up this series in Dunedin, Fla., against the Blue Jays with a 3-1 win on Monday night thanks to a dominant performance from Gerrit Cole.

The Yankees have gotten off to a slow start, going 5-5 after dropping a series to the Rays over the weekend. With the Bronx Bombers coming into the season as heavy favorites, this is not the start Aaron Boone wanted for his team.

However, New York will get another chance to face Hyun Jin Ryu, who shut them down on Opening Day, on Tuesday night.

Toronto has gotten off to a similar start to that of the Yankees. However, the Blue Jays have one of the most powerful lineups in the American League this season, filled with young talent and seasoned veterans. They showed that on Sunday against the Angels when they plated 15 runs.

Offensive Matchup

New York Yankees

Through the first 10 games of the season, the Yankees’ lineup that was supposed to be stacked in 2021 after finishing inside the top 10 in pretty much every statistical category in 2020 has been average.

New York only has a .313 wOBA and 99 wRC+, which are both outside the top 10 in MLB. The Yankees didn’t make any upgrades to their offense during the offseason, but they also kept their entire lineup together. It does seem like they are missing MLB’s home run leader from last season, Luke Voit, who is out for the first month of the season.

The Yankees really struggled versus left-handed pitching in 2020 and that carried over into their first game of the season against Ryu. New York only hit .226 with a .313 wOBA in 2020 against southpaws and only were able to get four hits off of Ryu earlier this month at Yankee Stadium.

Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays have a stacked lineup from top to bottom. During the shortened 2020 season, Toronto finished in the top half of MLB in home runs, runs, wOBA, wRC+ and a whole lot of other categories. Most of that success came against right-handed pitching, as well, as they were 10th in MLB in wOBA and wRC+.

Toronto will have a good matchup against right-hander Jameson Taillon. The Blue Jays crushed fastballs and curveballs last season, which are two of Taillon’s main pitches.

Starting Pitching Matchup

Jameson Taillon vs. Hyun Jin Ryu

2021 ZIPS Projected Stats (via Fangraphs)

Yankees Starting Pitcher

Jameson Taillon, RHP

2019 Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Taillon missed most of the 2019 season and all of last year after having Tommy John surgery. If the former No. 2 overall pick can return to his former glory, he’s going to be a steal for the Yankees.

He somewhat struggled in his first start, only going 4 2/3 innings, giving up two runs on three hits.

Taillon has some electric stuff when he’s on. He mainly uses his fastball and sinker around the zone with a slider and changeup as put away pitches. However, his velocity on his fastball has gone down by almost 2 mph since 2018, so don’t be surprised if we see him go to his off-speed pitches more often.

He’ll need to use his slider a lot tonight because that is the only pitch in his arsenal that the Blue Jays struggled against last season.

Blue Jays Starting Pitcher

Hyun Jin Ryu, LHP

2020 Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Ryu is your classic soft-tossing lefty. He mainly uses a changeup/cutter/fastball combination, but none of his pitches average over 90 mph.

Ryu’s changeup and cutter each produced a whiff-rate over 30% last season and combined to hold hitters to a .191 batting average. Ryu’s fastball is a sore spot, though, as hitters posted a .404 wOBA against it. That was his main issue against the Yankees on Opening Day when Gary Sanchez took his fastball deep.

Ryu was one of the more underrated pitchers in MLB in 2020, when he posted a 3.32 xFIP and 3.11 xERA. The reason he was so good is he severely decreased his hard-hit percentage to 24%, which is almost a 10% decrease from 2019.

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Bullpen/Defensive Matchup

The Yankees will have the advantage in the bullpen, but only slightly. Adam Ottavino is on the Red Sox and Zack Britton is hurt for an extended period of time, so that leaves the back end of the Yankees bullpen really exposed once you get past Aroldis Chapman and Chad Green. To make matters even worse for the Yankees, Green is likely not going to be available tonight after pitching the past two days.

The Blue Jays’ bullpen rated in the bottom half of the league in 2020 and is likely to be the same boat in 2021. However, the front end of their bullpen is pretty talented with guys like Jordan Romano, David Phelps and Rafael Dolis. Once you get past those guys though things get pretty dicey for Toronto. Losing Kirby Yates to Tommy John surgery during the spring was a tough blow.

Yankees-Blue Jays Pick

Based on the current line, I don’t see much value in the moneyline or total for this game. However, if the Blue Jays drop to plus money, I would place a bet on them. On the flip side, if the Yankees get to +125 or better I would place a bet on the Bronx Bombers.

Pick: Blue Jays +100 or better | Yankees +125 or better

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