MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: 2 Best Bets for Dodgers vs. Marlins & Red Sox vs. Angels (Monday, July 5)
Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images. Pictured: Xander Bogaerts.
- There's plenty of baseball after dark tonight.
- Our staff took advantage of the action by picking two best bets from Monday's slate, including Marlins vs. Dodgers and Red Sox vs. Angels.
- Check out both picks and breakdowns with full betting analysis below.
What’s more American than the Fourth of July? There aren’t many things, but baseball the day after Independence Day is certainly near the top of the list.
With a lot of games starting later in the day, our baseball staff hand-picked two best bets for Monday’s slate. The action starts with Dodgers vs. Marlins at 6:40 p.m. ET and concludes with Red Sox vs. Angels at 9:38 p.m. ET.
Check out both breakdowns below, and use the table below to navigate to either game.
MLB Odds & Picks
Dodgers vs. Marlins
Kenny Ducey: I don’t want to come across as lazy fading the Dodgers against a lefty once again, but I really do like this spot.
For starters, Walker Buehler was already in the midst of a strange season prior to the league’s crackdown on foreign substances.
Buehler has an expected ERA a full run higher than his real-life mark of 2.35, and that’s because in 2021, he’s allowed more hard contact and struck out fewer hitters. He simply hasn’t been the dominating presence he’s been in years’ past for Los Angeles, failing to pitch well with leads and locate at times.
Now, things have really gone belly up for Buehler. He’s seen a big drop in his spin rates over the last two starts, roughly 300 RPMs, and while it didn’t affect him against the Giants, he was knocked around by the Cubs in his first start post-sticky stuff.
The point here is that Buehler more than likely won’t make it out of here unscathed. On the other side of the coin, Trevor Rogers has been cruising right through the crackdown, seeing steady spin rates and will draw the 16th-ranked team against lefties judging by wRC+.
It’s always scary betting the Marlins because it’s never evident where their offense will come from, but a 90 wRC+ over the last two weeks is certainly a decent sign, and they have a few boppers in the lineup who can take advantage when Buehler misses a spot. This is pretty nice value.
Red Sox vs. Angels
Brad Cunningham: Martin Perez hasn’t been great for the Red Sox this season, posting and xERA and xFIP over 4.5. He’s really been struggling with his cutter, allowing a wOBA over .550, which is a problem since he goes to it over 30% of the time and this Angels lineup ranks fifth against cutters
Jose Suarez, however, has been good in mop-up duty out of the bullpen this season. But in his 110.2 innings in the big leagues, he has an ERA over 6 and an xFIP over 5, and this Red Sox lineup absolutely crushes left-handed pitching. Boston ranks top-10 in home runs, runs scored, wOBA, and wRC+ against lefties.