We have a shorter 11-game slate today, starting early with Rockies vs. Pirates at 12:35 p.m. ET at PNC Park on MLB.TV, and closing with Giants vs. Dodgers at 10:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium on MLB Network.
Our experts have analyzed the matchups and found great options for Thursday.
Below are five expert MLB best bets today.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12:35 PM | |
  | 2:10 PM | |
  | 10:10 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Mike Ianniello's Rockies vs Pirates Prediction
The Rockies are clearly the worst team in the league, but they are a lot more competitive than they were last season.
On May 14 last season, they were just 7-36 with a .163 winning percentage. They have already more than doubled that mark this year.
Chase Dollander has a significant pitching advantage in this one. He was the Rockies’ top prospect and a top 10 prospect in baseball last year for a good reason. His fastball averages 99, and he pairs that with a sinker and a nasty slider. In just one season, Dollander has raised his K/9 rate from 7.53 to 9.84.
On the season, his 3.35 ERA and 3.43 xERA are both strong, but that even includes his starts at Coors Field. On the road this season, Dollander has a 2.63 ERA, and opponents are hitting just .198 against him.
Carmen Mlodzinski has a 4.50 ERA on the season, and his 4.71 xERA is even higher. His 53.3% hard-hit rate allowed is one of the highest in the league, and opponents have been hammering his fastball.
That could spell trouble against a Colorado team that actually crushes fastballs.
While the Rockies' hyper-aggressive approach at the plate has led to more strikeouts, it has allowed them to jump on fastballs. They rank in the top 10 in the league against fastballs this season. Moniak has been the team's best offensive player, hitting .310 with a .619 slugging percentage against fastballs this season.
But once the starters leave, things will begin to shift in the Pirates' favor.
Therefore, I'm going to back the Rockies in the first half, banking on Dollander proving himself as Colorado's future ace.
Pick: Rockies F5 ML (+120 or Better)
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Tanner McGrath's Mariners vs Astros Best Bet
I project the Astros as -121 ML favorites in this matchup, and therefore believe the wrong team is favored.
I just don’t think Luis Castillo is very good. He typically takes a long time to ramp up into full form, but he’s seemingly been pitching worse as the season has progressed.
He posted a 103 Stuff+ rating and 115 Pitching+ rating over his first four starts, but that’s dropped to 92 Stuff+ and 101 Pitching+ over the past four starts. He posted a season-low average fastball velocity mark in his most recent start (94.1 MPH). He’s allowed 15 earned runs over his past 15 innings.
Seattle needs to have a pitching advantage in this series because Houston boasts one of the league’s most dangerous lineups, and my power ratings don’t look favorably upon the Mariners’ defense (-0.35 DEF rating, 30th).
Of course, the Mariners will have a significant bullpen advantage, as they boast one of the league’s better relief staffs, while the Astros have negative pitching.
Still, I’m willing to take a shot with Houston on Thursday because I want to fade Castillo.
I’m no Mike Burrows fan, but he’s a comparable pitcher to Castillo by the underlying metrics. Burrows has a 3.79 xERA, 4.07 xFIP, and 4.44 botERA, while Castillo has a 5.76 xERA, 4.35 xFIP, and 3.86 botERA. Both pitchers are also running similar strikeout minus walk rates and ground-ball rates.
I feel that taking the Astros in the first half might be the better move, just because of Houston’s horrific bullpen situation.
Pick: Astros F5 ML (-110 or Better)
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Evan Abrams's Giants vs Dodgers Prediction
By Evan Abrams
This game triggered one of our Action PRO betting systems:
This system targets Unders in games with high strikeout starting pitchers (home: 23%+, visitor: 27%+ K rates).
With fewer balls in play and more missed bats, these games trend Under, especially in regular-season settings with moderately priced totals.
This model capitalizes on pitching dominance to limit run production.
Giants starter Landen Roupp is running a 3.13 xFIP behind a 29% strikeout rate, while Dodgers young breakout starter Emmet Sheehan is running a 2.93 xFIP behind a 28% strikeout rate.
Pick: Under 8 (-110 or Better)
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