Today’s MLB Picks, Odds, Predictions on Wednesday, April 5 for Rays vs Nationals, Guardians vs Athletics, More
Ezra Shaw/Getty Images. Pictured: Esteury Ruiz
- Wednesday's MLB slate gets going this afternoon with a host of games starting as early as 12:30 p.m.
- Among those games are Cubs-Reds, Marlins-Twins and more, and our analysts are all over them.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of our best bets from the MLB slate on Wednesday, April 5th.
Wednesday in Major League Baseball means day baseball, and day baseball means day betting.
There are 13 games on today’s slate and a whopping 12 of them will get going before the sun goes down. Of those 12, we have bets on three, with four bets in total on Rays vs. Nationals, Twins vs. Marlins and Guardians vs. Athletics.
Here are our best bets from the MLB slate on Wednesday, April 5th.
Wednesday’s MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today’s slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
|Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.|
Rays vs. Nationals
By D.J. James
The Tampa Bay Rays get the luxury on Wednesday of facing the most fade-worthy pitcher in MLB: Patrick Corbin.
In 2022, Corbin ranked in the fourth percentile in Average Exit Velocity, the first percentile in xSLG, the first percentile in xBA and the seventh percentile in Hard Hit Rate. He had an abysmal season, which looks like it is going to continue in 2023 until the Washington Nationals maybe cut ties with him.
In his first start, he only managed to go three innings and allowed seven hits, four runs (two earned) and three walks. This time, he faces another great team against left-handed pitching. In the final two months of last season, the Rays posted a 112 wRC+ against lefties while striking out only around 20% of the time.
This is virtually the same lineup the Rays ended 2022 with and while it doesn’t make the headlines of AL East rivals like the Yankees or Blue Jays, the Rays’ offense remains dangerous and should have little issue against Corbin.
Even if Corbin somehow turns over the lineup a time or two with minimal damage, the Natioanls’ bullpen is far from an asset – as was demonstrated on Tuesday night. In 2022, the Nats’ bullpen ranked 25th in xFIP at 4.20. Kyle Finnegan – who blew up in Tuesday’s loss – and Carl Edwards Jr. have proven effective at times, but this is a subpar bullpen through and through.
There will be plenty of opportunities for the Rays to score on Wednesday afternoon. Take their team total up to 5.
Pick: Rays Team Total Over 4.5 (-125)
Twins vs. Marlins
It’s a day that ends in ‘Y’, meaning it’s a beautiful day to bet on our Fish.
Jesus Luzardo is a guy I’ve come around on. He probably won’t replicate Sandy Alcantara’s surreal 100-pitch complete game shutout Tuesday night, but he’s got a good shot against this Twins offense.
The Twins don’t hit that well against southpaws. They finished 2022 with the sixth-highest wRC+ against righties and the 13th-lowest wRC+ against lefties.
Four of Minnesota’s top seven hitters are lefties, so the Twins can get platooned easily. Meanwhile, Luzardo’s career xFIP is over a point lower facing left-handed batters (3.07) than right-handed ones (4.18).
Luzardo matched up with the Twins once in his career, in April of 2021. He allowed just two hits and one walk with six strikeouts over 5 ⅓ scoreless.
Current Twins hitters are 6-for-28 lifetime off Luzardo, with Donovan Solano having the most (only) success (4-for-7).
Meanwhile, Pablo Lopez makes his return to loanDepot. The Fish know Lopez’s stuff, and the Marlins should be comfortable staring down their ex-teammate.
The one non-ex-teammate Lopez will be staring down on Tuesday? Luis Arraez, who is cooking to start the season and will take advantage of Lopez’s platoon splits (he has a career 3.25 xFIP against RHBs but a 4.29 xFIP against LHBs).
Plus, there’s a non-zero chance Lopez is a little shaky in his return start, and I’m willing to factor that into my handicap.
(That, or Lopez shoves in a revenge start, and I will probably bet the under because of that angle).
Both squads are solid fielding teams, and I trust neither bullpen, so both those angles are a wash. But I’ll bank on the Marlins’ starting pitching advantage and take the Fish as short home underdogs (-102) at FanDuel.
I’d bet on our Fish at -110 or better.
Pick: Marlins -102
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Twins vs. Marlins
By Nick Shlain
Minnesota Twins starter Pablo Lopez spent his entire five-year career before this season with the Miami Marlins, and on Wednesday he’ll be back in town to face his former club.
In Lopez’s first start of the year, which came on the road against the Kansas City Royals, he had no trouble racking up the strikeouts as he tallied eight punchouts in just 5 1/3 innings. One of my favorite bets of the day Wednesday is for Lopez to go over 6.5 strikeouts at +118 on FanDuel.
Not only was Lopez flashing the strikeout stuff in his first start, but the Marlins have been striking out at a high rate against right-handed pitchers so far in this young season already. Max Scherzer, Tylor Megill, Kodai Senga, Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda have all struck out at least six Marlins in their games against Miami.
Lopez has been a solid strikeout pitcher over his career with a 23% strikeout percentage last year and 23% strikeout percentage overall in his career. The 38% strikeout percentage from his first game is unsustainable for him, but does lead to the possibility that he could see an uptick in strikeouts this year.
Like I mentioned, though, there is additional strikeout upside coming from the Marlins side of things here. That’s why at +118 the odds are too good to pass up taking the over on Lopez in his first start against his former team.
Pick: Pablo Lopez Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+118)
Guardians vs. Athletics
By Jim Turvey
The Oakland Athletics are undoubtedly one of the worst teams in baseball, so playing a minus money bet on them might seem like a crazy play. But there’s value on them Wednesday.
The A’s will turn to Kyle Muller, who was solid in his 2023 debut, going five innings and allowing just one run on four hits and a walk, while striking out three in a game the A’s would go on to win over the Angels.
But this is more about Cleveland. The Guardians had one of the biggest handedness splits in baseball last season, posting a 104 wRC+ against righties vs. just an 84 wRC+ against southpaws. The Guardians did add Mike Zunino, who is strong against lefties, but he’s just one batter in a lineup that still struggles with lefties.
Early sharp money has come in on both the A’s and the under, which leads me to their run line first five run line specifically. Even a tie through five innings would win this bet, and while the A’s offense ranks among the worst in the league, they’ll get to hit off of Hunter Gaddis and his 15.55 ERA in three career starts.
His true talent ERA is obviously far lower but combined with the handedness advantage for the A’s, it’s time to bet on arguably the worst team in baseball!
Pick: Athletics F5 Run Line +0.5 (-134)
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