Brewers vs. Cubs Betting Guide: Odds & Predictions

MLB Odds: Brewers vs. Cubs

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The Brewers were held in check as Kyle Hendricks pitched a three-hit complete game shutout on Friday night. Orlando Arcia was the only Brewer to get on base, so the rest of their lineup will need to wake up if they want to win this three-game series.

The Brewers and Cubs are both looking to navigate through a loaded NL Central, and in a 60-game season, division matchups like this one are crucial for determining playoff spots.

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Brewers Projected Lineup

The Brewers had some key departures over the offseason with Yasmani Grandal, Jesus Aguilar and Mike Moustakas all leaving via free agency.

That’s a decent chunk of their 2019 lineup, so they'll need Justin Smoak and Avisail Garcia to pick up the production and provide support behind Yelich, who rates out as the second-best hitter in my model.

The Brewers will need to forget about Friday night and get back on track if they want to win this series.

Advanced Stats Glossary

FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP  is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.

wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.

wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA. xwOBA is a regressed version of wOBA that accounts for variables like park factors.

Brewers Probable Stater

Corbin Burnes, RHP

Projected Stats (ZIPS) (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Corbin Burnes really only has one good pitch, and its his slider. His fastball got rocked in 2019, allowing a .533 wOBA against. He has a lot of velocity on it, but has trouble with location around the plate.

His slider mainly stays down and away to righties and uses it as his put away pitch. It's pretty effective, generating a 58% whiff rate and only a .191 against. If he's going to shut down the Cubs lineup, he'll have to use his slider a lot.

Cubs Projected Lineup

Cubs Probable Starter

Yu Darvish, RHP

Projected Stats (ZIPS) (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Darvish gets a lot of undeserved slack for his lack of success in the playoffs, but he has some of the best stuff in the game. He has a ton of different pitches, but he mainly uses his sinker, which has drop-off-the-table action. He had great success with it in 2019, only allowing a .196 average and a .253 wOBA against.

The Brewers' success last season came against fastballs, and they really struggled against off speed. Look for Darvish to utilize his sinker and other secondary pitches to get through their lineup.

Brewers & Cubs Bullpens

The bullpens are basically a wash, though it’s worth noting that I project that Burnes won't last late in the game, meaning the Brewers will most likely have to rely on their bullpen earlier in the game than the Cubs.

Cubs-Brewers Projections

Based on the current line, I don't see any value in backing either team.