MLB Odds, Picks and Predictions: Chicago Cubs vs. Detroit Tigers (Tuesday, Aug. 25)
Duane Burleson/Getty Images. Pictured: Javy Baez
Chicago Cubs vs. Detroit Tigers Betting Odds
|Cubs Odds||-134 [Bet Now]|
|Tigers Odds||+115 [Bet Now]|
|Over/Under||9.5 (-108/-112) [Bet Now]|
|First Pitch||7:10 p.m. ET|
The Cubs and Tigers play the second game of their three-game series tonight at Comerica Park. The Cubs defeated the Tigers, 9-3, yesterday but it was more about how they did it than the actual scoreline. They seemed to play angry in the game and I think it suited them well.
Chicago put up a crooked number in each frame that it scored. It was how an assembly line of a Major League Baseball team would actually look: move the guy over and go from first to third, then comes the big bat with a two-run home run. With a three-run lead in the ninth the Cubs still added another three-spot on the board.
In hindsight, yesterday felt like a letdown spot for the Tigers after they enjoyed a good weekend, taking two out of three from the Indians while snapping a 20-game losing streak against them.
As for the Cubs, they looked like a team with renewed vigor, and that’s a dangerous thing to have to contend with if you’re the Tigers.
Spencer Turnbull will get the start in tonight’s game for the Tigers. He’s 2-2 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.38 WHIP on the season. In his last start, Turnbull went only two innings before being pulled after issuing four walks in a 9-0 Tigers loss.
Turnbull’s numbers are actually decent, but his lack of control continues to be a major flaw that is holding him back.
Last year he had a 3.58 BB/9 ratio and this season it’s up to 5.47 BB/9. As for his other numbers, he has a 3.50 FIP which is pretty much in line with his ERA.
In spite of all the stats, the key metric to evaluating Turnbull is wins and losses. The Tigers have won only 10 of the last 35 games he’s started since 2019, and who could forget that stretch between June and September when the Tigers lost 13 straight games in which he started.
This will be his first time facing the Cubs, but he has history with Josh Phegley and Jason Kipnis, whom he previously faced when both players were on a previous team. Combined, they’re 7 for 15 off Turnbull with two home runs eight RBIs and a .467 BAA / .500 OBP / .1000 SLG slash line.
The Cubs will counter with right-hander Tyler Chatwood, who will be making his first start since August 6. Chatwood is returning from a back injury and will look to regain his form from earlier in the season, when he put together back-to-back quality starts.
Chatwood is 2-1 with a 5.40 ERA, but his 2.60 FIP and 2.71 xFIP suggest he’s been a bit unlucky in his starts thus far this year. In three appearances against the Tigers, he’s 0-1 with a 4.61 ERA. Only four current Tigers hitters have faced him and in 11 at bats they’ve managed three hits with no home runs and one RBI.
The Cubs bullpen figures to play a role in this matchup, as Chatwood will be on an innings limit. They should be well-rested, however, as Monday’s starter was able to complete seven full innings.
This matchup seems pretty straightforward. You’ve got the better team in the Cubs, whose price is being discounted a bit because they’re the road team.
I was obviously impressed by the Cubs offensive barrage yesterday. And an even bigger problem arises for opposing teams if Cubs shortstop, Javier Baez, starts to heat up. Baez is hitting .219 and had just three home runs going into yesterday’s game before hitting two out of the park. The kind of hitting the Cubs displayed yesterday is contagious and I’ve got a feeling it could be a long night for Turnbull.
As for the Tigers, I just can’t get near this team and especially if it means backing Turnbull on the mound. Two hitters in the Cubs lineup already have eight RBIs against him in only 15 at bats. I’ve got to think this group is licking its chops and raring to go.
By the look of things yesterday, it seemed to me like Detroit was still in the clouds off its series win over the Indians. I think its malaise continues for another night. DraftKings is offering the Cubs at -134 on the moneyline. That’s pretty cheap if you ask me. Don’t overthink this one. Take the Cubbies on the road tonight in Comerica.
The PICK: Cubs -134 (play up to -145) [Bet the Cubs at -132 with a 10% profit boost at DraftKings (now online in Illinois!)]