MLB Odds, Picks, Expert Predictions: Red Sox vs. Yankees Betting Preview (September 25)

MLB Odds, Picks, Expert Predictions: Red Sox vs. Yankees Betting Preview (September 25) article feature image

Jim McIsaac/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Judge

  • The Yankees are home favorites on Sunday Night Baselabll against the Red Sox.
  • Aaron Judge continues his quest for history with a home run tonight, but will the Red Sox pitchers instead pitch around him?
  • Nick Martin breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Red Sox vs. Yankees Odds

Red Sox Odds+140
Yankees Odds-165
Time7:08 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

All eyes will be Aaron Judge Sunday night as the Yankees bomber continues his pursuit of Roger Maris's AL home-run record, and what better time to hit #62 than against the rival Red Sox on Sunday Night Baseball.

Brayan Bello will look to avoid being on the wrong side of history as the Red Sox starting pitcher. He will match up against Nestor Cortes, leading to a low total for a Sox-Yankees matchup of just eight runs.

Where might the betting value lie in what could be a memorable chapter of this historic rivalry?

Can Bello and the Red Sox Avoid Giving Up the Longball?

Bello has continued to trend into more dominant form as his first stint in the big leagues has run along. He has shaken off a very tough start to his career with a series of excellent outings.

In September, he has pitched to an ERA of just 1.69 over 21 innings as he certainly appears to be settling in, even if part of his early struggles was just seeing batted-balls get down for hits at a notably high rate.

Bello features a quality four-pitch mix, and it's easy to see why the 23-year-old comes into the league with high expectations considering the arsenal at hand.

His 4.75 ERA overall still comes with a notably high BABIP of .400, a mark which should continue to trend down moving forward.

However, his 0.19 HR/9 is shockingly low, and one would have to expect that mark to rise moving forward, which is notable entering this matchup where backing a Judge homer is going to be a very popular play.

Boston has been in surprisingly strong offensive form over the last 30 days, playing to a wRC+ of 119, and the Sox also feature strong splits versus lefties, with a 115 wRC+ on the season.

Nestor and the Yankees Look to Stay Strong at Home

The Sox may be in strong form offensively of late, but a matchup with Cortes will still offer a very formidable challenge Sunday.

Cortes has remained in elite form down the stretch this season, pitching to an ERA of 2.57 throughout September and 2.74 since the All-Star break.

Cortes's xERA of 2.82 suggests his dominance has been far from luck. His tremendous command and ability to throw off hitters' timing make for an excellent watch, especially as overpowering velocity becomes more and more common across the league.

Pitching at Yankee Stadium has been especially good to Cortes, who has thrived in front of the Bronx faithful to an ERA of 2.30 while allowing a stellar slug-rate of just .273.

Judge has faced off against Bello three times in his career, with all at bats coming on September 14th in Boston, resulting in a 82-MPH (exit velocity) single, a walk, and a 102-mph fly-out.

Red Sox-Yankees Pick

A Judge homer can be had at +185, and I feel that if you really have the itch to back this historic moment finally happening, I think there are definitely worse bets out there.

A part of me really thinks tonight is the night Judge pulls it off, and I almost want to put a play on it myself.

However it is important to consider that the Red Sox will likely essentially just pitch around Judge, and the last thing any of their pitchers will want tonight is to end up being the guy on the wrong side of a highlight which will be watched a zillion times back.

Both of these pitchers have been in very strong form of late, especially Bello, who is clearly someone to get excited about for Red Sox fans moving forward.

This could set up to be a lower scoring affair considering each starter's recent form, and I believe that a play on the under is a good way to get involved in this contest.

Pick: Under 8 -115 (Play 8 to -120)

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