Rockies vs. Diamondbacks Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (Thursday, August 27)
Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images. Pictured: Charlie Blackmon, right, celebrate with Garrett Hampson, center, and Drew Butera.
Rockies vs. Diamondbacks Odds
|Rockies Odds||+140 [Bet Now]|
|Diamondbacks Odds||-162 [Bet Now]|
|Over/Under||8 (-114/-106) [Bet Now]|
|First Pitch||6:10 p.m. ET|
I’m not sure there’s a more compelling game on the Major League Baseball card than Thursday’s finale of a four-game series between the Colorado Rockies and the Arizona Diamondbacks. This game should have everything and the streaks that have been on the line are absolutely mind-bending.
At the start of the series, both teams came in on a losing streak. Colorado was on a seven-game skid, but snapped that in the opener and has now won three consecutive games.
In contrast, Arizona came in on a five-game losing streak and that number has stretched to eight consecutive defeats.
Another interesting in this series is the fact Colorado has eked out consecutive one-run victories in all three games thus far.
That said, the Diamondbacks hope right-hander Zac Gallen can be there streak stopper Thursday on the mound.
Gallen has gotten the ball once in his career looking to end a losing streak of three or more games and that occurred earlier this season when he tossed six innings of one-run ball. However, Arizona ended up dropping that game after giving up four runs the very next inning following Gallen’s departure.
Tonight, the Diamondbacks opened up around minus-150 and have already been bet up to -165 at the sports books.
I’m just not sure the opening price or the steam move is warranted in this spot.
Kyle Freeland, who gets the start for the Rockies, has had six outings already this season and each has been a quality start. He’s gotten a no-decision his last two appearances, but in both instances his team ended up scoring one less run than the opposition.
Freeland enters Thursday’s game with a 2-1 record and 2.87 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP. In his previous start, I broke down Freeland’s numbers this year and what has made him an effective pitcher in 2020 compared to 2019.
Today, I’ll look to focus on how he’s fared against the Diamondbacks.
In his career, Freeland is 3-4 against the Diamondbacks with a 5.27 ERA in 14 starts, but at Chase Field he’s 2-1 with a 3.42 ERA in five starts. In those five games, the Rockies are 4-1 with a return of +4.5 units. Fading Freeland in this spot has cost his detractors -4.88 units.
Arizona’s current lineup is only hitting .262 against him with a .317 OBP. They have managed a .510 slugging percentage against him with nine home runs and 20 RBI’s in 149 at-bats.
However, it’s important to note that the majority of those at-bats took place at the hitter’s oasis that is Coors Field.
Freeland is also leftie, which means he’ll be facing a Diamondbacks team that is hitting just .228 from the left side of the plate vs. .248 from the right. Their on-base percentage and slugging is also far worse: .282 OBP from the left vs. .324 from the right and .321 SLG from the left vs. .397 SLG from the right.
As previously mentioned, it’s all riding on the shoulders of Gallen on Thursday as the Diamondbacks hope he can put an end to their eight-game slide.
Gallen has a 2.25 ERA on the season, but he’s yet to factor in any decision this year. The Diamondbacks are 4-2 in his starts and they’ve alternated wins and losses in his last four outings, with the most recent one being a road loss to the San Francisco Giants. You might think that pattern might continue, but some caution is warranted with that thought. The Rockies current lineup is hitting .339 against Gallen with a .406 OBP and .853 OPS ins 56 at-bats.
Gallen has faced the Rockies three times in his career with two of those starts coming on the road. Against the Rockies, he’s also yet to factor in a decision as he’s 0-0 with a 2.65 ERA.
One other piece of relevant information in this matchup is that Gallen has made eight starts at Chase Field, with the Diamondbacks going 7-1 in those starts and winning in his last three outings.
I started out by wanting to tell you about all the reasons to back the Rockies, but now I’m torn. I’ll be honest. I didn’t expect to learn what I did about Gallen, particularly in regard to his stellar home record. And I guess now would be a good time to mention that this will be Gallen’s 23rd major league start and he’s allowed three or fewer runs in each of his outings thus far.
Here’s one more nugget of interest for you. In his eight starts at home, opponents are hitting .187 against him and he’s got 56 strikeouts in just under 48 innings.
In spite of all that, I still think the price is too steep. I punched this matchup into my model and I’ve got Colorado as a very short underdog with odds at +110 at best. BetMGM is offering Colorado at +145 and that’s just too much value to pass up in my book.
Probably the most intriguing point of interest I found has to do with the total.
In Gallen’s eight starts at home, the total is 6-0-2 to the under. The combined score in each of those starts has been nine runs or less.
We can grab an alt-total of 9 at BetMGM for roughly a 20-cent juice.
I’ll take the Rockies as dog for half a unit and take the total of under 9 for the full unit. I think we’ve got a great chance to come out ahead with these bets.
The Bets: Rockies ML +145 (play down to +125); Total Under 9 -129 [Bet now at BetMGM and get a $500 INSTANT deposit match]