MLB Odds, Picks and Predictions (Wednesday, July 29): Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels

Credit:

Abbie Parr, Getty Images. Pictured: Justin Dunn

  • BJ Cunningham previews tonight's West Coast matchup between the Seattle Mariners and Los Angeles Angels, complete with odds and a pick.
  • Find out why he's betting on a low-scoring matchup on Wednesday night.

Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels

Mariners Odds +205 [Bet Now]
Angels Odds -245 [Bet Now]
Over/Under 9 (-112/-109) [Bet Now]
First Pitch Wednesday, 10:10 p.m. ET
TV ESPN

After dropping three of their first four games of the season the Angels rebounded with a 10-2 drubbing of the Mariners on Monday night. If the Halos are going to end their playoff drought, they are going to need to win these games where they are huge favorites.

The Mariners have only one win on the season and will need to rebound pretty quickly if they want to stay relevant in the playoff race.

Seattle Mariners

Projected Lineup (via Fantasy Labs)

The Mariners project out as the worst offense in my model. Besides Kyle Seager, they have nobody that an opposing pitcher should be afraid of, yet.

In their first series versus the Astros, they actually were better than projected with a .317 wOBA and 105 wRC+.

Going up against Andrew Heaney will be a challenge, though, as the Mariners were middle of the pack last season against left-handed pitching.


If you want to know more about BaseRuns and how I use it to build my projections, check out this deep dive on my model.

Advanced Stats Glossary

FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP  is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.

wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.

wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA. xwOBA is a regressed version of wOBA that accounts for variables like park factors.


Mariners Projected Starter

Justin Dunn, RHP

Projected Stats (ZIPS) (via Fangraphs)

Justin Dunn came over to the Mariners in the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz trade two years ago. He was the 19th pick in the 2016 draft and was a highly-touted prospect in the Mets farm system for a while. Dunn only has 6.2 innings in the big leagues in his career, so I watched some film to see why he’s so well regarded.

He has a very average fastball, sitting around 93 MPH and he struggles commanding it. So far, 49% of the fastballs he’s thrown in the big leagues have missed the strike zone.

His best weapon is by far his slider. It has fantastic late, breaking action and he’s able to command it as well. Tonight’s matchup should bode well for Dunn as the Angels ranked 26th against sliders in 2019.

If he’s going to stay in the big leagues he’ll have to command his fastball better, so he can unleash his slider when he’s ahead in the count.

Los Angeles Angels

Projected Lineup (via Fantasy Labs)

The Angels struggled offensively in their first series opposite the A’s, but rebounded last night, scoring 10 runs off 10 hits against Justus Sheffield. Mike Trout is surprisingly in a slump to start the season, with only four hits against eight strikeouts in his first 19 at-bats.

We’ll see if facing Dunn will help Trout break out of his slump.

Angels Projected Starter

Andrew Heaney, LHP

Projected Stats (ZIPS) (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Andrew Heaney was very effective in his first limited start of the season. He went 4.1 innings allowing only two hits and compiling six strikeouts. He is primarily a sinker-ball guy, but that pitch rates out as average at best.

Usually, good sinker-ball pitchers produce high ground-ball rates, meaning they’re able to keep their sinkers down in the zone. Heaney only produced a 33.6% ground-ball rate in 2019, which lead to a .331 wOBA against.

The Mariners were one of the best team’s against sinkers in 2019, so navigating this lineup could be tricky.

Mariners and Angels Bullpens

The Mariners’ bullpen has been stretched thin over the past five days, as they’ve been called on for 22.2 innings. They only used two of their back-end guys in the blowout last night, so their main guys should be ready to go tonight.

The Angels’ bullpen could also be worn down for this game after pitching 23.2 innings through their first five games. My numbers actually give the Mariners the advantage in the bullpen matchup.

Projections and Pick

Since I have 8.76 runs projected for this game, I am going to look at an alternate total to get better odds. I am going to back Under 9 runs at +110 (DraftKings) and would bet it all the way down to +105.

Pick: Under 9 runs (+110)

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]

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