MLB Odds & Pitcher Props for Sunday: How To Bet Strikeout Totals for José Quintana & Huascar Ynoa (May 16)
Patrick Smith/Getty Images. Pictured: Huascar Ynoa.
After taking a good, long look at today’s pitching matchups and the Action Labs Player Prop tool, there are two strikeout total props I’m targeting today.
Our Action tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade below my explanation.
MLB Player Props & Picks
José Quintana (BOS) Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110)
|Angels vs. Red Sox||Red Sox -145|
|Time||1:10 p.m. ET|
José Quintana strikes out a lot of guys, but he’s going to get knocked around by Boston’s lineup today.
Quintana is walking nearly 20% of batters he has faced this season while allowing a high average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are among the top 10 teams in both exit velocity and hard-hit percentage, and they rank among the top-five teams in OPS vs. left-handed pitchers.
Moreover, Quintana’s curveball this season has been getting destroyed. He throws it about one-third of the time and is allowing a .438 wOBA on it. The Red Sox are the best team in baseball against the curveball, leading the league in weighted curveball runs created (14.7).
While Quintana is striking out nearly 15 batters per nine inning this season, I don’t believe that number is sustainable. Plus, the Red Sox are striking out less than 20% of the time over the past two weeks.
I’m banking on a rough and short start for Quintana at Fenway Park and don’t believe he’ll pitch deep enough into the game to amass five strikeouts.
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
Huascar Ynoa (ATL) Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-106)
|Braves vs. Brewers||Brewers -121|
|Time||2:10 p.m. ET|
I think Ynoa is in for a big day against the Brewers. He has been a stud this season (2.23 ERA, 0.89 WHIP) and has a great matchup against Milwaukee today.
Ynoa’s most-used and most-effective pitch is his slider. He throws it almost half the time with a whiff rate above 40% and a put-away rate about 30%. Batters are hitting just .191 with a .235 wOBA off the pitch.
Meanwhile, the Brewers are the worst slider team in the league. Milwaukee’s -25 weighted slider runs created is last in MLB by a longshot.
Ynoa is striking out 9.82 batters per nine innings this season. At that pace, he’d have to pitch 5 2/3 innings to hit six strikeouts today. I think there’s a good chance that happens, but it’s also worth noting that the Brewers have posted the fourth-highest strikeout rate this season (26.6%) and the seventh highest over the past two weeks (25.5%).
I’m looking for Ynoa to dominate a pathetic Brewers lineup while potentially amassing more strikeouts than his season average. We’re projecting his strikeout total at six, so I believe there’s value in taking the over 5.5.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10