Baseball fans are being treated to another full slate as there are 15 games on the schedule for Tuesday, August 5.
As always, there are plenty of betting opportunities to sift through, but our MLB betting experts are always on top of the action and have already made their predictions for today.
Today's MLB best bets are below, so be sure to continue reading.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:40 p.m. | |
  | 6:40 p.m. | |
  | 7:10 p.m. | |
  | 9:40 p.m. | |
  | 9:40 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Bet Labs' Astros vs Marlins Best Bet: Runs Likely Limited
By Bet Labs
This MLB betting system — "Steam Unders with Low OU Support" — is built on the premise that sharp money moving totals downward, paired with weak public support on the under, creates an exploitable edge in the betting market.
The strategy focuses on regular-season games from 2019 to 2025 in which the closing total lands between 8 and 10 — sweet spots for scoring volatility. It isolates games where the over/under has dropped significantly from open to close, signaling smart money on the under, yet public sentiment heavily favors the over, with only a small share of bets backing the under. This mismatch between money and ticket count indicates potential value, especially when the difference between those two figures is meaningful, but not extreme. To reduce noise, the system excludes games played in extreme heat or cold, only including those where temperatures range from mild to warm. It also requires both teams to have a recent record of games that hover around the total, suggesting no extreme streaks skewing expectations. These filters ensure that neither team is riding unsustainable over or under trends.
Ultimately, this system looks for low-confidence unders that have been steamed down by sharp bettors, where public interest is light and the number still sits within a realistic scoring range. The result is a consistent edge that has been backed by a large sample size and strong return on investment.
Overall, this system is 538-365-46 (60%) with a 15% ROI. This season, this system has generated a 16% ROI and has cashed 61% of its picks (120-77-8).
Pick: Under 8.5 (-110)
| | | | |
Prop Model's Twins vs Tigers Best Bet: Fade Paddack
By Prop Model
The strikeouts prop for Chris Paddack looks like a strong wager based on the current data. The line of 4.5 compares favorably based on our MLB simulations. The prop projects to hit 61.3% of the time based on the assumptions, and that represents a 10.3% edge. You can find all prop bet evaluations in ParlayIQ.
Pick: Chris Paddack Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100)
| | | | |
Charlie Wright's Guardians vs Mets Best Bet: Tough Matchup for Holmes
Clay Holmes scuffled again in his most recent start as he failed to escape the fourth inning against San Diego. With three strikeouts and two walks in that outing, he now has a 26:23 K:BB ratio over his past nine starts. Holmes has a 13.1% strikeout rate and a 7.7% SwStr% in that span.
Tonight's matchup brings a new wrinkle.
Holmes has faced some low-strikeout lineups recently, and Cleveland qualifies there (7th-lowest strikeout rate vs. right-handed pitching since the start of July). However, the interesting factor is the lefties as Holmes' kryptonite as a reliever was always left-handed hitters. He's done a nice job leveling out those splits as a starter, except for the control. His walk rate is a massive 12.1% against lefties this year, compared to 6.3% vs. righties. Over this recent nine-start stretch, Holmes has a silly 14.9% walk rate against lefties.
Cleveland's projected lineup includes a whopping eight lefties and the Guardians also have the second-highest walk rate against righties since the start of July. Workload is already an issue for Holmes, who hasn't completed six innings since early June. The risk of control problems leading to an abbreviated outing is high here.
Pick: Clay Holmes Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+130)
| | | | |
Prop Model's White Sox vs Mariners Best Bet: Woo's Under Showing Value
By Prop Model
Bryan Woo's strikeouts prop looks like a strong wager based on the current data. The line of 6.5 compares favorably based on our MLB simulations. The prop projects to hit 60.62% of the time based on the assumptions, and that represents a 10.1% edge. You can find all prop bet evaluations in ParlayIQ.
Pick: Bryan Woo Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-130)
| | | | |
Bet Labs' Padres vs Diamondbacks Best Bet: Big Night for Scoring
By Bet Labs
Late in the MLB season, games played in hitter-friendly or high-variance environments — such as in Colorado, Arizona and Washington — tend to go over the total when the closing line is modest (≤10.5).
These markets often underestimate run production during the final stretch of the season due to weather conditions (e.g., dry heat in AZ/CO, humid air in DC) and expanded rosters, which increase bullpen volatility. Public perception around fatigue or playoff pressure may further depress totals, which creates value when betting overs in August or later for these specific home teams, particularly during the regular season.
Overall, this system has cashed 57% of its picks (329-249-26) and generated a 10% ROI. This season, it has been red hot, going 4-1 and producing an insane 51% ROI.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-130)
| | | | |
