Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, 7/16: Should You Wager on Waguespack vs. Cashner, Red Sox?
Dan Hamilton, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Jacob Waguespack
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes Tuesday's slate of games, including how to bet Rays-Yankees (7:05 p.m. ET) and Blue Jays-Red Sox (7:10 pm. ET).
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
The Red Sox acquired Andrew Cashner from the Orioles earlier this week, and he will start for Boston on Tuesday against the Blue Jays. Cashner faced the Blue Jays in his most recent start on July 6 and defeated Toronto for the second time this season; allowing seven hits and one run over 13 total innings pitched.
Cashner has pitched to a 3.83 ERA over 17 starts in 2019 and has made a big change to his repertoire – drastically reducing his sinker and cutter usage while increasing his rate of four-seam fastballs and changeups. But with an xFIP (4.90) more than a run higher than his actual ERA, can bettors really trust Cashner going forward?