MLB Daily Betting Model, 5/12: Can Blake Snell Clinch a Series Win over the Yankees?
Kim Klement, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Blake Snell
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps to find edges in betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and First 5 (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the full slate of games on May 11 with his model below, and highlights Rays-Yankees (1:10 p.m. ET) and Nationals-Dodgers (4:10 p.m. ET) as potential edges.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 3-3 against full-game moneylines, and 2-1-1 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
My actual picks went 6-2, and I was up 2.61 units for the day.
It was another positive day in terms of closing line value.
I gained 19 cents on the A’s line (+127 to +108), 19 cents on the Orioles F5 line (+117 to -102), 13 cents on the Atlanta F5 line (-110 to -123), gained 4 cents on the Detroit F5 line (+135 to +131), played the Rays line at its best value (-132 vs. -135 after opening at -155), and only lost 3 cents on the Pirates line (+165 to +168),
On Deck for Sunday, May 12
The model recommends one full-game moneyline and three moneylines for the first five innings (F5) on Sunday.
As of writing, the 4% trigger threshold officially marked the Milwaukee Brewers, San Francisco Giants, and Texas Rangers as the full-game plays. It also likes the Tampa Bay Rays as an F5 play.
I took the Rays in the first half, and am considering taking the Brewers too.
Going slightly off the board, I selected the Washington Nationals as an F5 play, showing a 3.5% edge at +135. and the Rays as a full-game play, showing a 1.84% edge at -160.
Stephen Strasburg has been better than ever for the Nationals in 2019. His swinging strike rate (15.6%) is about 4% higher than his career norm, pushing his strikeouts per nine innings (12.00) to a career-high and his K-BB% to a career-best (26.2%, up from 22.7% career).
He’s throwing his curveball more (29.6%), a 10% bump over last season, and has also thrown more two-seamers at the expense of four-seam fastballs; dropping his four-seam rate from 53% career to 32.2% in 2019; while the sinker is up from 5.8% to 17.3%.
Stephen Strasburg, Filthy Curveball (home plate view).
[And then has to remind CB Bucknor that it was strike 3. 😂] pic.twitter.com/59yTs8wMWN
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 8, 2019
In Tampa Bay, we’re getting some value on the reigning 2019 AL Cy Young Award winner, who after being roughed up twice by Kansas City after returning from a broken toe was virtually unhittable in his last outing against Arizona: 6 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 9 K.
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 6, 2019
Snellzilla owns a ridiculous 50:9 strikeout to walk ratio in 37 innings pitched; roughly a strikeout more and a walk less per nine-innings than in 2018. He has somehow raised his swinging strike rate, from an already ridiculous 15.1% to a now unfair 18.1%. He’s also pumping in first-pitch strikes at a 69.7% clip, a 12% increase from 2018.
On Friday, the Rays line opened at -140 before closing at -168. On Saturday, their line opened at -155 before closing at -135.
I have the Rays winning the first half of the game today 66.9% of the time, fair odds of about -202. I have them winning the game 63.4% of the time, fair odds of -173.
Therefore, I see value either way on the Rays at -160 today, but more value in the first half of the game with the Yankees expected to have their full allotment of relief pitchers back today.
Bets (So Far) for May 12
- Tampa Bay Rays (-160) F5 Moneyline
- Tampa Bay Rays (-160) Game Moneyline
- Washington Nationals (+135) F5 Moneyline
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 5/12
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.