We've got a full slate of MLB action on Tuesday.
And our top experts have a full slate of MLB picks, predictions, and best bets, including three bets on the Cubs-Phillies game from Matt Trollo, an underdog pick on the Brewers-Tigers game from Tanner McGrath, and a home run banger on the Blue Jays-Angels game from Grant Neiffer.
MLB Picks Today
The team logos in the table below represent the matchups our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:40 PM | |
  | 6:45 PM | |
  | 9:38 PM | |
 | 6:05 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Phillies vs Cubs Moneyline & Over/Under Picks
By Matt Trollo
Weather forecasts can and often do change overnight, especially for Wrigley, but the early projections are for mid-60s temperatures with winds blowing out to right field at just under 10 MPH. Similar conditions have been a significant boost to run scoring and power in a moderate sample size.
However, Wrigley is a negative run environment (94 Park Run Factor via Statcast) on a neutral day. The expected weather boost (if it doesn't change much) may make it play closer to Fenway (108 PRF), but projected home plate umpire Vic Carapazza brings that back towards the pitchers, close to a quarter of a run overall historically.
While I firmly believe much better days are ahead for Jesus Luzardo, this version of Shota Imanaga may still be the slightly better pitcher and is also in a better spot with the Cubs' projected lineup, owning a 10-point wRC+ edge against lefties since last year compared to the Phillies, and that's even with J.T. Realmuto in there.
The Cubs also have a significant defensive edge and a slight edge in base running.
If you're buying peripherals strictly, the Phillies have been the better bullpen by half a run. If including actual results its closer to even, though both teams suffer from the absence of their All-Star closers.
I give the Cubs a much larger F5 edge and overall edge than the market (-122 and -118, respectively), with a bit larger lean towards the F5 given the bullpen instability. I would play to win 0.6 and 0.4 units at -150 and -140, respectively.
This is more a bet on the Philadelphia offense continuing its rut than on Luzardo continuing his. In fact, despite the weather forecast, I'm also endorsing the under 8.5 for half a unit.
The Cubs have superior run prevention and a strong matchup. The Chicago offense may be the largest obstacle to a lower-scoring affair, but I still believe Luzardo's unconventional struggles have pushed this number past where it should be.
Read Trollo's full Phillies-Cubs preview here:
Pick: Cubs ML | Cubs F5 ML | Under 8.5
| | | |
Brewers vs Tigers Moneyline Pick
The Brewers shouldn’t be dogs on Tuesday.
I am the world’s biggest Kyle Harrison fan. I wrote a piece about him for Pitcher List a few years ago, dissecting his four-seam fastball. He throws it very flat, but with a low arm angle, meaning he throws it “up” to reach the top of the zone, keeping it out of the traditional swing path. That’s how a guy can sport a 16% swinging-strike rate on a 94 MPH flat four-seam.
As the Brewers are known to do, they have optimized Harrison. His botERA is down to 2.60, compared to 4.80 just two seasons ago with the Giants.
Harrison could be in for a good start on Tuesday because the Tigers are in their worse split. So far this season, they’ve posted a 108 wRC+ against righties but an 86 wRC+ against lefties.
Harrison is a far better pitcher than opposing starter Keider Montero. While Montero’s results have been good, I struggle to see how a guy with an 8% swinging-strike rate, spotty fastball/sinker command, and a meh feel for his main secondary pitch (slider) can sustain a 24% strikeout rate.
And while the Tigers are in their worse split, the Brewers are in their better split. So far this season, Milwaukee has posted a 114 wRC+ against righties but just a 74 wRC+ against lefties.
By my numbers, the Brewers also have the better bullpen, and they’re very well-rested — Milwaukee hasn’t deployed most of their higher-leverage relief options in four days. Also, by my numbers, the Brewers are the far better defensive and base-running team.
The Brewers shouldn’t be underdogs in this spot. I would project this line closer to -110, while Zerillo would project it closer to -130.
Check out Tuesday's full Payoff Pitch episode here:
Pick: Brewers ML (+100 or Better)
| | | |
Blue Jays vs Angels Home Run Picks
Mike Trout has looked incredible to start the season, and all of the underlying numbers have backed it up.
He gets a great matchup against Patrick Corbin, who has been a gas can for righty power for years.
The weather is a bit of a concern, but given Trout's recent form, I don't care.
I make the fair odds on this home run prop around +325.
Pick: Mike Trout Home Run (+350 or Better)
| | | |
Zerillo's Full Action App Card for Tuesday
Need more bets for Tuesday's slate? It's always wise to see what our guy Zerillo is betting on!
Additionally, if you haven't already, make sure you download the Action Network App and get an Action PRO subscription to track all your bets and follow all our top experts.
| | | |
