MLB Picks Today | Odds, Predictions for Orioles vs Royals, Angels vs Cardinals, More on Tuesday, May 2
Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images. Pictured: Nolan Gorman
We’ve got a jam-packed Tuesday of baseball on tap, with all 30 teams in action and every game taking place under the lights.
Our MLB experts are targeting three games in particular: Guardians vs. Yankees, Orioles vs. Royals and Angels vs. Cardinals.
Here are our best bets from the MLB slate on Tuesday, May 2nd.
Tuesday MLB Best Bets | May 2, 2023
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today’s slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
|Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.|
Guardians vs. Yankees
By Nick Shlain
Cleveland Guardians starter Tanner Bibee will make his second major league start of his career Tuesday night and he’ll do it against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium.
Bibee struck out eight batters in 5 2/3 innings in his major-league debut against the Colorado Rockies and one of my favorite bets on the slate for Tuesday is Bibee to go over 4.5 strikeouts at -125 at BetMGM.
Bibee is a big-time strikeout pitcher as he struck out 167 batters in the minor leagues last year. He also had 19 strikeouts in 15 innings in the minor leagues this year before getting the call up.
The Yankees’ lineup has been ravaged by injury already this season and is without major players like Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton as well as role players like Josh Donaldson.
New York has been striking out a decent amount at the plate as well as six players in the projected lineup have at least a 20% strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching this season.
With Bibee’s strikeout stuff playing up and the Yankees lineup at less than 100%, he should cruise over 4.5 strikeouts here.
Pick: Tanner Bibee Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-125)
Orioles vs. Royals
By Jim Turvey
Tyler Wells is a better pitcher than Ryan Yarbrough — let’s start there.
Wells doesn’t have amazing strikeout stuff, but he does a good job limiting hard contact, and he basically never gives away a free pass (three walks in 29 innings this season). His FIP (3.91) and xFIP (4.31) don’t paint the picture of a dominant pitcher, but they also both likely slightly undersell his ability to prevent runs. His 19.0 K-BB% ranks 34th out of 162 starters with at least 10 innings so far this season. Solid!
Yarbrough is anything but. For starters, his 4.0 K-BB% ranks just outside the bottom 10 of that same list and looks even worse when pulled apart. He is striking out just 3.71 batters per nine. His ERA (6.35) matches nearly every one of his advanced metrics, as there is no bad luck to be blamed here. The only positive is that he likely won’t go deep into the game.
However, given the Orioles’ success against lefties this season, they might not need to see him too long to be able to make an impact. Their 122 wRC+ against southpaws ranks seventh in baseball, and their Isolated Power is even higher, at fourth.
On the flip side, the Royals own the worst offense in baseball against right-handed pitchers, a lowly 61 wRC+ that is 12 points off even the second-worst offense versus righties.
Add in a fully rested Orioles bullpen that is elite at the top end, and I would play this number all the way out to Orioles -175.
Pick: Orioles -157
Angels vs. Cardinals
The Cardinals and Angels are two of the bigger offensive platoon splits in all of baseball, and both have very favorable matchups on Tuesday. The Cardinals were the best offense in baseball last season when facing a southpaw, as Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt and Tyler O’Neill all smash lefties in the heart of the Cardinals order.
The Angels weren’t great against lefties last season, but the offseason changes have produced a lineup built to crush lefties. Brandon Drury, Gio Urshela and Hunter Renfroe are all right-handed bats with excellent track records when facing southpaws.
It’s not just the offenses that suggest runs could be plentiful. Patrick Sandoval is dealing with a concerning drop off in his strikeout rate this season, from 23.7% to 17.7%. When you combine that with an increase in walk rate, the result is a much higher ERA projection. Sandoval’s Stuff+ on his fastball is middling too, and he’s vulnerable as a result.
Steven Matz is still working his way back from injury too, and the results and expected metrics haven’t been impressive on the Cardinals lefty either. Two underperforming starting pitchers and an elite offensive split for both offenses is a recipe for lots of runs.
I’d bet the over 8.5 at -125 or better, or grab over 9 at -105.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-122)
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