I will be evaluating my favorite MLB player props based on what the Action Labs Player Prop tool likes. The tool grades each bet on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I am playing, the case for each bet, and the best books to find odds on those player props.
MLB Player Props & Picks
John Means Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-114)
| Athletics vs. Orioles | Athletics -130 |
| Time | 1:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
John Means has been great for the Orioles this season. He has allowed just four total runs in his four starts this season and sports a 1.52 ERA and 3.01 FIP.
The one thing Means hasn’t been great at, is generating swings and misses. The left-hander has an 8.75 K/9, which is actually a bit higher than his previous two seasons. His slider is his only real put-away pitch, and he throws it just 6.7% of the time, instead relying on his fastball and changeup.
Means has a HardHit% of 45.2% which is a lot higher than a guy with a sub-two ERA would typically produce. It seems like Means has gotten pretty lucky this season that his hard contact has not turned into runs. That will likely change against a red-hot Oakland A’s squad that ranks fifth in wOBA and third in wRC+ against left handed pitchers.
Means has gone over 5.5 K’s just once in his first four starts and will have trouble against this Oakland lineup as they search for their 14th straight win.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Luis Castillo under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100)
| Reds vs. Cardinals | Cardinals -130 |
| Time | 2:15 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | PointsBet |
Luis Castillo is becoming one of the guys considered as a top-end starter that I like to try and fade. He has a 6.05 ERA this season and has allowed 13 earned runs in 19 innings.
Castillo’s K/9 rate is at 7.45, down from 11.44 last season and his K% is just 17.8. In his first four starts of the season, Castillo has totaled over 5.5 strikeouts just once.
With a fastball average velocity down almost two mph from 97.4 to 95.7 and a sinker that has gotten shelled this season, I expect Castillo to stay under this number.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Dustin May over 5.5 Strikeouts (-115)
| Padres vs. Dodgers | Dodgers -120 |
| Time | 7:08 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
I have loved what I’ve seen from Dustin May early this season. He has allowed five earned runs in his first three starts and has a 2.93 ERA and 1.11 WHIP.
May has struck out at least six batters in all three of his starts this season, including eight in his last outing. He has an incredible 12.91 K/9 rate this season and 33.8 K%.
The 6-foot-6 “Big Red” brings the heat with a 99.1 mile-per-hour fastball, the fastest among any starting pitcher in baseball. He also throws a 98.3 mph sinker and 93.4 mph cutter that all look the same coming out of his hand. Then he throws his curveball for the put away, with a 69.2 K% and zero hits allowed.
I like May to continue his success, even against a strong Padres lineup.
Action Labs Grade: N/A
