Friday MLB Player Props Odds, Betting Picks: 2 Strikeout Totals, Including Kwang-Hyun Kim & Carlos Rodon (June 25)
Ronald Martinez/Getty Images. Pictured: Carlos Rodon.
- A big MLB slate means there's plenty of player props on the board.
- Kevin Davis has two targets for Friday's slate: Unders for Carlos Rodon and Kwang-Hyun Kim.
- Check out Davis' full breakdowns complete with two picks and predictions below.
With a full slate of baseball games, there are many props to choose from on Friday’s Major League Baseball card.
Unfortunately, the betting markets are more efficiently setting strikeout prop totals. Despite this, there are two strikeout props that I like, and they’re both unders.
For this article, I will be evaluating my favorite MLB player props based on what my model likes and what the Action Labs Player Prop tool likes. The Action Labs Player Prop tool grades each bet on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade. I will be adding my own personal grades as well.
Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I am playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
2021 MLB Pitcher Prop Record: 52-47, -1.84 Units, -1.9% ROI
MLB Player Props & Picks
Carlos Rodón (CHW), 8.5 Strikeouts (-132 / +104)
|Mariners at White Sox||White Sox -210|
|Time||8:10 p.m. ET|
The Chicago White Sox are in first place in the AL Central despite several key injuries. A reason why the Chi Sox are on top is not just because of their dominant lineup, but their pitching as well.
One of their breakout stars is starting pitcher Carlos Rodón. This season, Rodón owns a 6-2 record with a 1.83 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP.
He should have many strikeouts against a strikeout-prone Mariners lineup, but the question is whether or not his strikeout total at 8.5 strikeouts has been set too high.
Rodón averages 12.83 strikeouts per nine innings while pitching for around six innings per start. That gives him 8.55 strikeouts for his typical start.
However, Friday’s start against Seattle is not typical. The median MLB lineup averages 8.8 strikeouts per game this season, but the Mariners average 9.54 strikeouts per game, which is the seventh-highest in the league.
Additionally, Seattle does poorly against left-handers like Rodón, owning the fifth-highest strikeout percentage in MLB against lefties.
Even though Rodón should go over his strikeout total against the Mariners based on how he has played, I believe the under is the best bet. Rodón is unlikely to maintain his high strikeout rate and level of pitching as the season progresses.
Pick: Carlos Rodón Under 8.5 Strikeouts (+104 | Play to -110)
- Action Labs Score: N/A
- Kevin Davis Score: 5
Kwang-Hyun Kim (STL), 4.5 Strikeouts (-110 / -116)
|Pirates at Cardinals||Cardinals -178|
|Time||8:15 p.m. ET|
From a strikeout prop angle, Cardinals starting pitcher Kwang-Hyun Kim is interesting.
Since arriving from Korea last season, Kim’s identity as a pitcher has been clear. He pitches for a low number of innings, has a low strikeout rate but also boasts a low ERA.
Kim typically pitches a solid game, but St. Louis prefers to use him conservatively. As a result, his strikeout totals are typically set at a low number.
His number is set at 4.5 strikeouts for Friday night’s game against the Pirates.
Kim averages fewer than 4.2 innings per start — even fewer than the typical starter who pitches for five innings. Last year, Kim’s strikeout rate sat at only 5.54 strikeouts per nine innings, but this season, it has improved to 7.92.
In those 4.2 innings, he averages 3.96 strikeouts.
However, Kim has the disadvantage of going against the Pirates lineup. Even though Pittsburgh averages only 3.59 runs per game — the worst mark in the league — they are disciplined at the plate. The Pirates average only 8.25 strikeouts per game, which is the third-fewest in the league.
When you adjust Kim’s total for Pittsburgh’s lineup, he should have only 3.72 strikeouts. At -116, the under on Kim is a steal, and I would bet it up to -140.
Pick: Kwang-Hyun Kim Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-116 | Play to -140)
- Action Labs Score: N/A
- Kevin Davis Score: 8