MLB Player Prop Bets & Picks: 3 Strikeout Totals, Including Lucas Giolito (Saturday, July 10)

Throughout this season, I’ll be evaluating my favorite MLB player props of a slate based on what the Action Labs Player Prop tool likes — the tool grades each bet on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.

Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I am playing for Saturday, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.

MLB Player Props & Picks

Ryan Yarbrough Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100)

Usually when teams hit a lot of home runs, you expect them to be boom-or-bust, and either hit the long ball or strikeout a lot — but that has not been the case for this Toronto team. While the Blue Jays lead the league in slugging percentage and in home runs per game this season, they also have the second-fewest strikeouts in the league.

Ryan Yarbrough isn’t a power arm and has just a 7.39 K/9 rate this season. His main pitch is an 82.8 mph cutter that he uses to generate soft contact. He’s averaging only 4.4 strikeouts per game this season.

While sometimes a soft tossing pitcher can take some time to get adjusted to, the Blue Jays will be facing Yarbrough for the fourth time already this season, and the second time in a week. I think the Blue Jays will be able to make adjustments and get to Yarbrough here before he reaches this number.

Action Labs Grade: 10/10

Mike Foltynewicz Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110)

Mike Foltynewicz has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this season. In 17 starts, he has amassed a 2-8 record and a 5.17 ERA, and has allowed at least two runs in seven straight starts while surrendering a home run in each.

The tall right-hander ranks in the bottom 20% of the league in xERA, xBA, xwOBA, xSLG, Avg. Exit Velocity, and K%. He also has just a 16.8 K% and a 6.41 K/9 rate.

Foltynewicz is averaging just 3.9 strikeouts per start this year, and has stayed under this number in seven of his last 10 outings. Against an Oakland offense that has seen him twice in the last two weeks, I expect him to stay under this total again.

Action Labs Grade: 10/10

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Lucas Giolito Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-113)

It’s been an up-and-down season for Lucas Giolito, posting a 4.20 ERA and 6-6 record over 17 starts. While his strikeout numbers are down a tad at 10.58 K/9, they are still pretty solid.

Giolito still eats up innings, pitching into the sixth inning in 14 of his 17 starts. He averages 6.8 strikeouts per start and still has an elite changeup, generating a 35.5 K%.

This should be a good spot for Giolito against a lowley Baltimore team that ranks 20th in wOBA and wRC+. When Giolito faced the Orioles earlier this season, he allowed just one run on three hits and struck out 12. He can have five fewer punch outs and still go over this total tonight.

Action Labs Grade: 7/10