Sunday MLB Player Props: Fade Brandon Pfaadt (March 31)
Getty Images. Pictured (left to right): Brandon Pfaadt, Bryan Reynolds, Reid Detmers.
Pitching has been challenging to predict early in the MLB season, but we've found a pair of arms with big edges attached to them for Sunday MLB Player Props.
Games start bright and early, so let's not waste any more time and dive into our top three MLB player props for Sunday, March 31 featuring a pick for Bryan Reynolds of the Pittsburgh Pirates, plus a pair of strikeout props for Reid Detmers and Brandon Pfaadt.
Sunday MLB Player Props (March 31)
We saw Brandon Pfaadt step up big time during the Diamondbacks' postseason run to the World Series last season. However, he did not look so sharp this spring and was not missing bats in the limited innings he pitched.
That adds to the bewilderment of this line, as it's far too high for Pfaadt. Pfaadt went under this line in 75% of starts last season. Like Detmers above, this gives us a huge price edge with his implied odds at -300.
Also, Colorado is typically a team to target for strikeouts, but they are right around last year's league average thus far. Whether their ability to put the ball in play continues to improve is a question mark, but they are more than good enough for this play.
Lastly, based on our Action Labs projections, this under is the most significant edge on the board. They have Pfaadt projected for just 5.3 strikeouts this afternoon.
Pick: Brandon Pfaadt Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-120)
Angels starter Reid Detmers has been an enigma over the past few seasons. He's had a roller coaster of results that led to a demotion to the minors, but then he returned with even better stuff as he figured out his mechanics.
However, since solving that mechanical issue and making his stuff even more electric, Detmers has been shaky with his command. He has the potential to strike out double-digit guys but also rack up the walks in the process.
This afternoon, he'll take on a Baltimore Orioles lineup that has been crushing the baseball out of the gate. The matchup is certainly not ideal, but Detmers strikeout total is too low based on his stuff and the length he will need to provide for the Angels.
He exceeded this number in 75% of his starts last season, which gives us implied odds of -300 that he will go over again today. According to our Action Labs projections, this is also one of the day's top plays, which has him slated for 5.9 strikeouts.
Pick: Reid Detmers Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-115)
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Pirates outfielder Bryan Reynolds is in the midst of his prime but is also one of the veteran bats in a young Pittsburgh order. The switch-hitter has been a consistent source of production, and that should continue today as he gets to face Marlins lefty Trevor Rogers.
Reynolds has handled lefties slightly better than righties in his career, as he holds a .284 lifetime average against them. However, Rogers is not even an average left-handed starter. He was abysmal in 2022, posting a 5.47 ERA over 23 starts. He made just four starts in 2023 before an injury put him on the shelf for the season.
A rusty Trevor Rogers is the perfect guy for Reynolds to pick on, especially considering how he's been in the early going. Reynolds has exceeded this mark in the first three games of the season, adding to a 51% hit rate over the last three years combined.
While that hit rate does not give us an implied odds edge, the matchup is more than enough to be confident in Reynolds being in the middle of the Pirates' run production once again.
Pick: Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-110)
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