Clear Eyes. Full Hearts. Can't Lose.
Here are my three favorite MLB player props today, including home run picks for Dodgers vs Yankees and more.
MLB Player Props Today
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
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| 7:05 PM | |
| 8:05 PM | |
| 8:10 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Dodgers vs. Yankees MLB Player Prop
Trent Grisham
Home Run
New York returns from the All-Star break with a marquee matchup at home against the Los Angeles Dodgers this weekend, and that’s good news for Grisham, because he absolutely loves hitting at Yankee Stadium.
His left-handed swing is tailor-made for the park, and the results speak for themselves; so far in 2026, Grisham is hitting .302 with six home runs and a .575 SLG in home games. The sample size is small, given that Grisham has missed time with an injury this season, but when healthy, he remains one of the catalysts in the New York lineup.
For the year, the Yankees’ leadoff hitter has gone deep just 10 times, which is well behind his career-high mark of 34 just a season ago.
Grisham, however, could be in line for a huge second half, as his xSLG (.457) is considerably higher than his actual SLG (.421) and his hard-hit rate (47.4%) is actually the best mark of his career. The 29-year-old missed the majority of June with a hamstring injury, but has a .257 ISO and a pair of home runs since returning to the lineup on July 3rd.
His opponent tonight, Dodgers right-hander Roki Sasaki, has struggled mightily to keep the ball in the yard as of late.
The 24-year-old has surrendered multiple home runs in three of his last four starts and has given up loud contact throughout much of the season. Sasaki’s 12.8% barrel rate is one of the worst marks in baseball, while his 44.9% hard-hit rate is not an inspiring number either.
Sasaki’s four-seam fastball has been particularly troubling; the pitch has a -10 run value for the season according to Statcast, and has been the source of 10 of the home runs that the young right-hander has conceded. Opponents are slugging .606 against the pitch, yet Sasaki is still offering it 43% of the time.
Grisham’s .556 xSLG and 54.7% hard-hit rate against four-seamers in 2026 make him a great candidate to take Sasaki deep tonight.
Pick: Trent Grisham Home Run
Twins vs. Cubs MLB Player Prop
Pete Crow-Armstrong
Home Run
Crow-Armstrong is putting together a truly special season in 2026.
The 24-year-old center fielder is a weapon in every facet of the game and is a legitimate candidate to win National League MVP. Everyone could see the tantalizing speed and defensive potential when he first debuted, but now, in his third major league season, he is becoming one of the most feared hitters in the game.
PCA made major strides at the plate last season when he finished eighth in the NL with 31 home runs, but still only hit .247 and struck out 155 times. This year, we are only halfway through July, and he has already belted 21 homers to go along with a .296 batting average. He has made significant developments in several areas of his game, as his chase rate (35.5%) and walk rate (11.2%) have improved dramatically in 2026, while the same can be said for his hard-hit rate (48.6%) and average exit velocity (90.2 mph).
The month of June was a snapshot of the type of damage Crow-Armstrong can do when he is locked in; the Cubs phenom hit .381 and launched 11 home runs over the course of 105 at-bats. His slugging percentage in June was a ridiculous .781 to go along with a 1.249 OPS. We shouldn’t expect numbers like this every month, but July has been similar so far for PCA, as he is hitting .353 with a 1.176 OPS and three dingers in 34 AB.
Tonight, Crow-Armstrong and the Cubs open a three-game series at Wrigley Field against the Twins and their struggling pitching staff. Minnesota pitchers as a unit stand in the bottom 10 in WHIP (1.37) and ERA (4.62) among all 30 MLB teams, while the bullpen in particular has really struggled as well (5.19 ERA, 41 HR allowed).
Minnesota will send right-hander Bailey Ober to the mound for his second start since returning from injury earlier this month. Ober finished 2025 tied for seventh in the majors with 30 home runs allowed and has appeared to be prone to the long ball in 2026 as well. The 31-year-old has surrendered 13 home runs over 71.2 innings of work, with 10 of those homers coming against left-handed bats.
Whether it’s against Ober or the beleaguered Minnesota bullpen, look for Crow-Armstrong to take advantage of the hitting-friendly environment of Wrigley Field and start the second half of the season with a bang.
Pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong Home Run
Orioles vs. Astros MLB Player Prop
Yordan Alvarez
Home Run
Speaking of MVP candidates, Alvarez has a chance to run away with the American League hardware if he can keep up his performance at the plate in 2026.
The 29-year-old has logged one of the most remarkable seasons a hitter could dream of so far this year; he currently leads the AL in hits (111), home runs (31), RBI (70), and OPS (1.059), while ranking second in batting average (.318) and runs scored (65).
The surface numbers are incredible, and the underlying stats indeed back up the claim that Alvarez was baseball’s best hitter through the first half of the season. All he has done so far is lead all qualified players in xBA (.335), xSLG (.713), and xWOBA (.474), while posting elite exit velocities (94.7 mph) along the way. In addition, Alvarez’s barrel rate (18.7%) and hard-hit rate (53.2%) are the best marks he has posted since 2022.
Alvarez and the Astros are back at home tonight against the Orioles to open the second half of the season. The hulking left-hander has been dominant at Dalkin Park in 2026, sporting a .361 average and 1.171 OPS to go along with 16 home runs over just 200 plate appearances.
Meanwhile, Baltimore right-hander Dean Kremer could be in for another rough outing; the 30-year-old veteran was torched in his last start before the break, allowing four home runs in just five innings against the Cubs. The damage could have been worse, as he allowed seven different batted balls to travel over 350 feet, including one from Alex Bregman that was robbed of a home run by left fielder Taylor Ward.
Alvarez is 3-for-7 in his career against Kremer and has always been a menace against right-handed pitching. This season, he is hitting .331 against righties to go along with 23 home runs and a 1.120 OPS. Given Kremer’s recent struggles and a favorable home park, Alvarez should be considered the ideal candidate to leave the yard tonight.
