We have a full 15-game slate today, starting with Pirates vs Guardians at Progressive Field at 7:10 PM ET, and closing with Nationals vs Athletics at Sutter Health Park at 9:40 PM ET.
Our experts have analyzed the matchups and found great options for Friday, July 17.
Below are 4 expert MLB best bets today.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each matchup our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:10 PM | |
  | 8:10 PM | |
  | 8:40 PM | |
  | 9:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Sean Zerillo's Pirates vs Guardians Best Bet
By Sean Zerillo
I project some value on the Under in this game.
If you want to dive deeper into this matchup, I recommend checking out BARTOLO, our new PRO baseball betting tool giving PRO subscribers access to all the data I use to project MLB games every day.
Here's a sneak peek of what BARTOLO spits out for Pirates-Guardians:
Pick: Under 7.5 (-125 or Better)
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Tanner McGrath's Orioles vs Astros Best Bet
Orioles slugger Pete Alonso is priced at bet365 at +300, implying a 25% chance to hit a homer tonight in Houston.
However, Action PRO projects him with 0.41 home runs, or a fair price closer to +144, which makes him a great pick.
At this time, he leads our prop edges for tonight's matchup against the Astros.
Alonso has 21 homers this season, and his splits favor him tonight. He's doing better on the road with a .262 average compared to .244 at home, and also against right-handed pitchers with an .878 OPS against .680 vs. lefties.
He's hit two dingers in his past five games, and we'll back him to get another one tonight against the Astros.
Pick: Pete Alonso Home Run (+250 or Better)
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Derek Carty's Rockies vs Reds Pick
By Derek Carty
I like Gabriel Hughes under 4.5 strikeouts at -135 or better.
Hughes is not a major prospect. He never pitched deep into games in the Minor Leagues, and it’s unlikely he’ll pitch deep into this game, given he might get hit around up in the altitude at Coors Field.
Additionally, Denver's altitude significantly suppresses strikeouts.
THE BAT X projects around four strikeouts for Hughes in this start, with about a 63% chance that he stays under 4.5 strikeouts.
Pick: Gabriel Hughes Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-134 or Better)
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Kev Mahserejian's Nationals vs Athletics Prediction
Cade Cavalli and Gage Jump are two promising young pitchers, both stuck on teams looking past 2026. Cavalli and Jump each have ERAs just below 4.00 and should be front-line starters for their respective organizations going forward.
Sadly, Sutter Health Park is a cruel mistress that may muddy these quality ERAs tonight. Jump is no stranger to the dangers of his minor league home park.
His 6.20 home ERA is well ahead of his 0.75 road ERA. Both averages are extreme in each split, but his road metrics beyond ERA are all better than home.
While Cade Cavalli has a better ERA and wOBA allowed on the road, his K% is lower, and his BB% is higher. Cavalli should come out cleaner than Jump, but his league-worst bullpen may continue hurting the team's chances.
With the Athletics offense ranking third in wRC+ at home (118 wRC+) and the Nationals offense ranking second-best against LHP (118 wRC+), there should be plenty of runs in Sacramento tonight.
Pick: Over 10.5 (+100 or Better)
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