MLB Playoffs Picks, Odds, Best Bets for Game 4 of NLDS Braves vs Phillies

Braves vs. Phillies Game 4 Odds

The Phillies' offense erupted in Game 3 as Philadelphia took a 2-1 lead in the series. The Braves are facing a must-win in Game 4, but our expect isn't targeting either side in this matchup.

Instead, D.J. James is fading the starters and betting the over. Continue reading for his full analysis of his best bet for NLDS Game 4.

MLB Odds & Picks

Over 9 (-110)

Odds via FanDuel
DJ James: The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies will meet in Game 4 on Saturday with the home side looking to pull off the series upset and advance to the NLCS. Charlie Morton will be the Braves’ Game 4 starter and Noah Syndergaard, who has an xERA of 4.29 on the season, will start for the Phillies.

Overall, both bullpens have shown their best already, so some runs could come across the plate late in the game.

Morton has a 4.11 xERA, so he is not much better than Syndergaard in that regard. However, he does tout an elite curveball, which could throw a wrench in some Philadelphia swings. Morton is a solid veteran with plenty of playoff experience, but he may be over the hill now.

He ranked in the 28th percentile in average exit velocity and the 17th percentile in hard-hit rate. He is still top of the line when it comes to strikeouts and whiffs, but he walks more batters than the median starter.

The Phillies also tout six batters in their lineup with a .325 xwOBA off of righties since August 1.

Morton threw four games against Philly and in three of the four starts, he allowed at least four earned runs.

Atlanta’s bullpen is about league average. The Braves are elite in LOB percentage, but otherwise a 3.85 xFIP ranks 14th in MLB in relief since August 1.

On the other side, Syndergaard prevents hard contact, ranking in the 80th percentile in average exit velocity and the 79th percentile in hard hit rate. However, he doesn’t miss many bats anymore as his 25% K rate is far below what we saw during his prime in Queens.

Since August 1, the Braves have a 114 wRC+ and .775 OPS against righties.

The Philly bullpen has a similar xFIP as Atlanta’s (3.96 vs. 3.85). They also struggle mightily with preventing baserunners from scoring, so this almost definitely means Atlanta will find a way to get some runs off of the middle relief options

The over is the best call in this game because neither team has a lockdown starting pitcher. Play the over in this game at anything from 9 (-120) or better.