MLB Playoff Odds, Picks | Same Game Parlay for Mariners vs Astros Game 2
Alika Jenner/Getty Images. Pictured: Julio Rodriguez
Mariners vs. Astros Game 2 Odds
|Over/Under||6.5 (-120 / +100)|
|Time||3:37 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
After a thrilling come-from-behind victory in Game 1 which ended on a Yordan Alvarez walk-off home run, the Houston Astros will take aim at a commanding 2-0 lead over the Seattle Mariners in the ALDS.
We've got two great pitchers on the hill Thursday in Luis Castillo and Framber Valdez. Shall we fade them with a same-game parlay? I think we shall.
The Parlay (+270):
- Over 6.5
- Luis Castillo 5+ Hits Allowed
- Julio Rodriguez to Get a Hit
Same Game Parlay – Mariners vs. Astros
Let's not sit here and act like these two pitchers have been absolute world-beaters. Luis Castillo did absolutely shove against the Blue Jays in the Wild Card series, but he finished the season with a 2.99 ERA and a 3.17 ERA in Seattle. Over his final three regular-season starts, he gave up 10 runs in 16 innings.
I'm not here to say he's not a great pitcher, but this idea that he is an untouchable pitcher and worthy of this total is probably a little far-fetched. He was shelled by the A's and Royals down the stretch and while he blanked the Jays, he did allow six hits.
That's only one part of the equation and the Astros very well may score just a run or two. I'm a believer that Houston has a top-five offense, but if you choose to believe it'll struggle against Castillo, that's your right. What seems inevitable is Framber Valdez letting some Mariners cross the plate.
Seattle scored seven runs on 13 hits in Game 1 and should be plenty capable of jacking up the run total here against Valdez. If you don't remember, the lefty owns a 4.53 career ERA in the postseason and allowed five earned runs in each of the two starts — a total of 4 2/3 innings — he made in the World Series last year.
I don't trust Valdez enough in this spot to take the under on a total so low and I think this is a splendid buy-low opportunity on both offenses.
Luis Castillo 5+ Hits Allowed
Now, to get more specific with the call for offense. Castillo allowed 7.6 hits per nine this season and finished off the regular season allowing five or more hits in four of his final six outings. In fact, he allowed five or more hits in 14 of his 25 appearances this year.
If you want to talk strictly postseason, there's reason for hope as well. While the righty does own that sparkling 0.71 ERA in 12 2/3 innings pitched in his playoff career, he's allowed 12 hits and six in each outing.
Houston is lethal at the plate and racked up 11 hits in Game 1, including six off of starter Logan Gilbert in 5 1/3 innings. I think, once again, this line is a bit off.
Julio Rodriguez to Get a Hit
Finally, we'll look to Rodriguez to take us home. The All-Star rookie hit leadoff in Game 1 and there's no reason to expect anything different Thursday. With that, and the fact that he hit .302 from the leadoff spot this season, I love throwing him in here to sweeten the payout.
Not only has Rodriguez done well from the top of the order, he also hit .303 in the second half of the season, .283 on the road and .275 against lefties. I think it's fair to say he's in position to crack one into the outfield off of Valdez.
We've already touched on how poorly I think Valdez will pitch, so why not back a red-hot hitter, who could easily step to the plate five times, to register a hit?