MLB Playoff Prop Picks & PrizePicks Plays for Yankees vs Astros & Phillies vs Padres
Via Jim McIsaac/Getty Images. Pictured: Yordan Alvarez.
- With a pair of championship series games today, our props analyst has found value on five PrizePicks plays.
- He's eying five prop overs for three pitchers and two hitters.
- Check out Tony Sartori's picks and analysis below.
Player props have become among the most popular bets in the industry, but while the amount of states with legalized gambling is growing, some may feel left out.
With PrizePicks, you get the opportunity to essentially parlay game prop over/unders with cash payouts depending on how many you get correct on that day’s slate.
Therefore, let’s take a look at some of the options on Sunday’s Major League Baseball slate and see where we can find some value to turn a profit.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different O/U player props to payout up to 10x your wager.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. Meanwhile, a Power Play is similar to a parlay — it’s all or nothing.
Here’s how I would approach today’s MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
Yu Darvish Pitcher Fantasy Score Over 34.5
It is win-or-go-home for the San Diego Padres as they trail the NLCS 3-1 to the Philadelphia Phillies. Right-hander Yu Darvish takes the mound for the Padres tonight.
Through 30 starts during the regular season, Darvish went 16-8 with a 3.10 ERA and 0.95 WHIP.
This strong pitching has continued into the postseason as he is 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA through three starts. Based on his metrics, regression should not be an issue for Darvish as he boasts a .291 xwOBA, .227 xBA, and .388 xSLG.
In Game 1 of this series, Darvish allowed just two runs on three hits through seven innings while striking out seven. Over seven career starts against Philadelphia, the right-hander is 2-1 with a 2.23 ERA and 0.98 WHIP.
Zack Wheeler Pitcher Fantasy Score Over 35.5
We are also going to back the Phillies’ starting pitcher, left-hander Zack Wheeler. Sunday should feature a low-scoring, tightly-contested game as both pitchers are outstanding while the weather calls for light rain and 8-10 mph winds blowing directly in from center field.
Through 26 starts during the regular season, Wheeler went 12-7 with a 2.82 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. His strong pitching has continued into the playoffs as he is 1-1 with a 1.40 ERA and 0.52 WHIP through three starts.
Based on his metrics, regression should not be an issue for Wheeler as he boasts a .275 xwOBA, .226 xBA, and .343 xSLG. In Game 1 of this series, Wheeler was nearly perfect as he allowed zero runs on just one hit through seven innings pitched while striking out eight.
Over seven career starts against San Diego, the left-hander is 3-1 with a 2.06 ERA and 1.09 WHIP.
Lance McCullers Jr. Over 5.5 Strikeouts
Sunday’s nightcap features the Houston Astros attempting to complete their sweep of the New York Yankees. Right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. will take the mound for Houston and should be an excellent candidate to back in the strikeout department.
Since making his season debut in the middle of August after missing more than half the season with a forearm injury, McCullers has been dealing on the mound. Including his playoff start against the Mariners in the ALDS, he is 4-2 with a 2.01 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over his outings this season.
Based on his metrics during the regular season, regression should not be an issue in the postseason as he produced a .294 xwOBA, .224 xBA and .342 xSLG. A big part of his success has been his ability to strike batters out as he boasts a 25.6 K%.
Since returning from injury, McCullers has collected at least six strikeouts in six of his nine starts. We should expect this trend to continue against the Yankees.
Through five career starts against New York, the right-hander is 2-0 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. McCullers has collected at least six punchouts in four of those five outings.
Looking at the Yankees’ projected starting lineup for Game 4, five of the nine hitters possess a K% north of 22% this season.
Alex Bregman Hitter Fantasy Score Over
We are also going to back a few Astros hitters in this game as they are slated to go against left-hander Nestor Cortes. These plays are not a fade of Cortes as he has done his job at an extremely high level; however, in a battle of strength versus strength, I am going to side with Houston’s bats.
The first batter we are backing is Alex Bregman. Going over this total in three of the last four games, we should expect Bregman to keep it going against Cortes.
In his career against the left-hander, Bregman is 3-6 with a homer. His metrics are very strong this season as he boasts a .350 xwOBA, .257 xBA, and .416 xSLG.
Projected to hit in the clean-up spot on Sunday, Bregman should have more than enough opportunities to get over this number. This total has not been released yet, but It will be no higher than seven and I would even play It at that number.
Yordan Alvarez Hitter Fantasy Score Over
Superstar Yordan Alvarez is projected to hit right in front of Bregman, and he also will have more than enough opportunities to get over this total. Producing some of the best metrics in baseball this season, Alvarez boasts a .462 xwOBA, .329 xBA, and .672 xSLG.
After a monster series against the Mariners, Alvarez has gone relatively quiet against the Yankees. However, this should be a great opportunity to buy low on the outfielder.
In his career against Cortes, Alvarez is 2-4 with a homer. His metrics across those four at-bats suggest that regression should not be an issue as he produced a .360 xBA, .649 xSLG, and .430 xwOBA.
When facing left-handed pitching this season, Alvarez has posted an incredible .321 BA, .586 SLG, and .998 OPS. This total has also not been released yet, but It will be no higher than seven-and-a-half, and I would even play It at that number.