Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Friday, May 30.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Friday, I preview Angels vs Guardians, Yankees vs Dodgers and more. I also have more MLB picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Friday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Friday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Expert Picks — Friday, May 30
Reds vs Cubs
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +145 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -175 |
LHP Andrew Abbott (CIN) vs TBD
We should see some cross-field breeze from left to right at Wrigley on Friday, somewhere in the seven to nine MPH range.
The weather lowered my projected total for the game to 7.84, compared to 8.75 on a weather-neutral day at Wrigley.
It also activates our PRO Bet Labs system, Wrigley Field Unders, which are 296-196-24 all time (60.1% win, 15.5% ROI) and 169-105-12 (61.7% win, 18.4% ROI) in all games starting before 3 PM.
I’m beginning to trust Reds starter Andrew Abbott, who is on pace to post a career-best strikeout rate (27.3%) and xFIP (4.08). He does well to avoid hard contact, ranking in the 92nd percentile among qualified pitchers in hard-hit rate allowed. That helps a lot, considering the Reds have evolved into a decent defensive team, ranking 16th among MLB teams in defensive runs saved and 12th in outs above average.
The Reds rank as the luckiest offense in baseball, with a .311 xwOBA compared to a .320 wOBA, and the Cubs remain one of the three best defensive teams in my model.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-106 | Play to 8 +100)
White Sox vs Orioles
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 9 -118o / -102u | +180 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 9 -118o / -102u | -220 |
RHP Sean Burke (CWS) vs RHP Zach Eflin (BAL)
These are two of baseball’s unluckiest offenses (White Sox with a .308 xwOBA and .286 woBA; Orioles with a .321 xwOBA and .305 wOBA) that have heated up in recent weeks (White Sox 131 wRC+ over the past seven days; Orioles 106 wRC+ over the past two weeks).
Oriole starter Zach Eflin has been shaky since his IL stint (lat strain), allowing 15 runs on 20 hits and four walks with only 10 strikeouts across his past 15 ⅓ innings.
White Sox starter Sean Burke has been a gascan this season (5.93 xERA, 3.7% K-BB, 4.55 botERA).
These are also two very shaky bullpens, and I projected this total at 9.74.
Pick: Over 9 (-105 | Play to -120)
Angels vs Guardians
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +118 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +143 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -140 |
RHP Jose Soriano (LAA) vs RHP Luis L. Ortiz (CLE)
Mike Trout will return for the Angels on Friday, a noticeable boost for the squad. He’s been out for a month with a knee injury. He got pretty unlucky at the plate in the first month of 2025 (.306 wOBA, .372 xwOBA) behind a .159 BABIP, so I expect some positive regression for the future first-ballot Hall of Famer.
The Angels posted an 82 wRC+ in April but a 102 wRC+ in May. Zach Neto (139 wRC+), Logan O’Hoppe (127 wRC+), Nolan Schanuel (114 wRC+), and Taylor Ward (105 wRC+) are driving the improvements.
I prefer Angels starter Jose Soriano (4.14 xERA, 3.74 xFIP, 4.45 botERA, 107 Pitching+) to Guardians starter Luis L. Ortiz (5.15 xERA, 3.82 xfIP, 4.25 botERA, 94 Pitching+).
The Guardians have the better bullpen and are slightly better defensively, but I still only projected their ML price at -110 for this game, and thus would play the Angels at +118 or better.
Pick: Angels ML (+125 | Play to +118)
Yankees vs Dodgers
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 9 -105o / -115u | -125 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 9 -105o / -115u | +105 |
LHP Max Fried (NYY) vs RHP Tony Gonsolin (LAD)
Max Fried recently changed pitch grips and altered his approach against right-handed hitters, and he continues to get some situational luck (1.29 ERA, 3.36 xERA, 3.19 xFIP, 3.37 botERA).
