The Los Angeles Dodgers (34-22) host the New York Yankees (35-20) on Friday, May 30, 2025. First pitch from Dodger Stadium is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on Apple TV+.
Max Fried, who's a perfect 7-0 with an impressive 1.29 ERA, takes on Tony Gonsolin and the vaunted Dodgers on Friday night. How should bettors approach the series opener of this World Series rematch?
Find my Yankees vs Dodgers prediction and pick below.
Yankees vs Dodgers Predictions, Picks
- Yankees vs Dodgers pick: Over 8.5; Bet to Over 9 | Play to -118
My Yankees vs Dodgers best bet is on the game total to go over 9. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Yankees vs Dodgers Odds, Lines
| New York Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +122 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -135 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -145 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +115 |
Yankees vs Dodgers Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Max Fried (NYY) | Stat | RHP Tony Gonsolin (LAD) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-0 | W-L | 2-1 |
| 2.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 1.29/3.35 | ERA /xERA | 4.68/4.74 |
| 2.57/3.20 | FIP / xFIP | 4.47/4.16 |
| 0.93 | WHIP | 1.44 |
| 18.4% | K-BB% | 14.8% |
| 53.2% | GB% | 35.8% |
| 108 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 104 | Location+ | 93 |
Yankees vs Dodgers Betting Preview, Prediction
Yankees Betting Preview: Fried Throwing Well
It appears Max Fried is settling into his new digs — and that's awful news for the rest of the league considering he was off to a fast start in April. The left-hander has recorded a 28.3% strikeout rate in May — up seven points from the first month of the season — and has maintained a sub-7% walk rate next to some positive numbers on contact.
Fried's Expected Batting Average has fallen to .234 this month as well, with a .377 Expected Slugging, both of which represent an improvement of 15 points or more. He continues to pitch to a large complement of ground balls, and it's seemingly a winning strategy considering the Yankees' infield defense is 13th in Outs Above Average this season, even if its performance has waned just a touch in May.
Overall, this is a sound arm, and even if you don't expect him to pitch to a 1.29 ERA all season on account of his 3.35 xERA, he's continuing to build an imposing strikeout-to-walk ratio with friendly numbers on contact.
Offensively, New York has cooled off from the heights we saw this team at just a few weeks ago, but in the past 14 days still owns the 12th-best wRC+ thanks to elite plate discipline numbers and a good — not great — .166 Isolated Power.
Dodgers Betting Preview: Gonsolin Struggling
The opposite story is unfolding for veteran Tony Gonsolin, meanwhile, who was off to an excellent start this season until encountering some resistance in recent outings. His xBA is well over .300 in the last two games, and his xSLG has come in well worse than the league average, which is awful news considering he's punched out just 11 batters and walked 10 over his last three appearances.
Gonsolin was fortunate to face the Miami Marlins twice and the slumping Arizona Diamondbacks once, before taking beatings against the Angels and Mets in the past 12 days. His strikeout numbers have been unassuming over his past two full-ish seasons, and his walk rate has never been friendly, so we can expect things to continue trending the wrong way in these departments.
The righty has also been a fly-ball pitcher for the duration of his stay in the majors, taking things to the extreme in 2023 and the beginning of 2025 at well north of 31%. For context, the league average is just under 24%.
That's yet another reason to be concerned, given the Yankees rank second in baseball with an OPS of .813 against fly-ball arms. It doesn't necessarily represent a drastically different matchup with this team sitting second against ground-ballers, too, but it has been far more potent in the power department, which is exactly where Gonsolin has been at his worst.
Yankees vs Dodgers Prediction, Betting Analysis
There's no good reason to believe in Gonsolin here, particularly with the Yankees staying afloat amidst a bit of a power struggle.
We've covered how the righty's xSLG has shot up in his past two starts — something that's no surprise for a man who posted an abysmal .507 xSLG in his last full season before injury — and if New York's power numbers build back to their previous heights, he's going to be in serious trouble.
On top of that, the Yankees walk a ton — and they're striking out around 20% of the time over these last two weeks, which should further send Gonsolin's numbers down into the gutter.
The numbers for Fried are friendly on the opposite side of this, but the Dodgers do mash ground-ballers with a league-leading .891 OPS. And with Fried's infield defense taking a slight step back this month to rank 18th in OAA, there is a reasonable way through this indomitable lefty for the home team.
It's been a trying time for the Dodgers these past two weeks — they've fallen into a rut which has brought them down to 18th in run production, but things are slowly beginning to turn after a series in Cincinnati where they posted 20 runs in three games.
I'm a believer in both offenses.
Pick: Over 8.5; Bet to Over 9
Moneyline
The sharps are hitting the Yankees as short road favorites, and it's hard to blame them. Not only do the Yankees have the hotter offense and the stronger of the two pitchers, they've also won nine of 10.
Run Line (Spread)
New York is 26-23 to the run line as a favorite this season, and the Dodgers have covered just four times in 10 games and are 5-4 as underdogs.
Over/Under
The sharps are in disagreement here, hitting the Under, but the Over has taken on 78% of the handle and 70% of the bets. It also represents a contrarian spot, as the Yankees have gone just 2-8 to the Over in their last 10.
Yankees vs Dodgers Betting Trends
Dodgers vs Yankees Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, Calif. |
| Date: | Friday, May 30 |
| Time: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | Apple TV+ |
