It’s a relatively shorter slate on Monday, with just 11 games on deck.
Still, our staff of betting experts has locked in on three MLB best bets for Monday, August 11, including a side and two player props.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:10 p.m. | |
  | 7:40 p.m. | |
  | 8:10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Derek Carty's Phillies vs Reds Pick
By Derek Carty
There is a valuable opportunity on Bryce Harper's walks prop.
THE BAT X projects 0.57 walks for him on Monday, with a 45% chance that he records at least one.
If you can get the over at +200 or better, there is excellent value here.
Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics!
Pick: Bryce Harper Over 0.5 Walks (+200, bet365)
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Sean Zerillo's Nationals vs Royals Prediction
By Sean Zerillo
Nationals starting pitcher Cade Cavalli had an impressive 2025 debut, generating 19 whiffs against the Athletics behind elite stuff (115 Stuff+), four plus offerings (107 Stuff+ fastball, 123 Stuff+ curveball, 125 Stuff+ sinker, 116 Stuff+ changeup), and an electric fastball (97.3 MPH on average but can touch triple digits).
Cavalli is already a better pitcher than Royals starter Bailey Falter (4.81 xERA, 4.40 botERA, 96 Stuff+).
However, it’s worth mentioning that the Nationals are struggling mightily against southpaws over the past month (57 wRC+).
On the other hand, the Royals are shorthanded in the bullpen, as Carlos Estevez, Lucas Erceg and Angel Zerpa have all worked on consecutive days.
I project the Nationals ML at +114 and the Nationals F5 ML at -103. I would bet the full-game ML at +123 or better and the F5 ML at +105 or better.
Pick: Nationals ML (+128, FanDuel)
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Charlie Wright's Red Sox vs Astros Player Prop
Astros starting pitcher Cristian Javier is set to make his season debut on Monday. He's been sidelined for the past 14 months while recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Based on his rehab work and Houston's current roster, there are questions about Javier's effectiveness and workload.
Javier posted an 18% strikeout rate and a 12.7% walk rate across seven starts before going down with the injury in 2024. He was more like a league-average arm in 2023, with a 23.1% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate across 31 starts.
Javier is now three years removed from the back-to-back elite strikeout seasons he posted in 2021 and 2022. His swinging-strike rate has ticked down each of the past two years. Javier made five rehab appearances and maxed out at 3 2/3 IP and 77 pitches. His rising control problems were present at Triple-A, as he walked 15 batters to 15 strikeouts across 14 innings.
The Red Sox boast the seventh-lowest team strikeout rate against right-handed pitching since the start of July. This is a subpar matchup.
The most significant factor in this handicap might be the obvious piggyback option. Colton Gordon was slated to start on Sunday but was bumped from the rotation in favor of Jason Alexander. Gordon could be pushed into a full-time long relief role, and he’s a strong candidate to follow Javier and cover several innings, limiting Javier’s length.
Pick: Cristian Javier Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145, Caesars)
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