Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Monday, July 21.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Monday, I preview Angels vs. Mets, Athletics vs. Rangers, Astros vs. Diamondbacks, and Twins vs. Dodgers. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Monday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Monday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Monday, July 21
Angels vs. Mets
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -131 | 8 -116o / -105u | +157 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +108 | 8 -116o / -105u | -193 |
LHP Tyler Anderson (LAA) vs. RHP Kodai Senga (NYM)
The wind is blowing in from left-center field at close to 10 MPH in Queens on Monday, triggering a few of our Action Labs PRO betting systems, includuing this one:
Mets starting pitcher Kodai Senga is an ace when healthy (1.39 ERA, 3.17 xERA). He’s lost some stuff (94 Stuff+) and command (95 Location+), but he’s been much better at generating weak contact.
New York’s bats are ice cold, posting an 83 wRC+ over the past two weeks. Conversely, the Mets are super underrated defensively (+27 DRS).
I project 7.61 runs for this ballgame.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-115 | Play to 8 -105)
Athletics vs. Rangers
| Athletics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -169 | 8.5 -116o / -105u | +119 |
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +138 | 8.5 -116o / -105u | -144 |
LHP Jacob Lopez (ATH) vs. RHP Jack Leiter (TEX)
Athletics starter Jacob Lopez (3.54 xERA, 4.21 xFIP, 19.4% K-BB) has surprisingly performed better than Rangers starter Jack Leiter (5.03 xERA, 4.74 xFIP, 9% K-BB).
However, Leiter has better advanced pitching model metrics (110 Stuff+, 101 Pitching+).
Lopez is a good command pitcher (102 Location+) but dosn’t have any elite pitches. He gets excellent extension which helps his limited velocity play beter than it should. Ultimately, I think his solid strikeout minus walk rate is somewhat legitimate given the sample size.
I give the A’s the lineup and bullpen advantage on Monday.
The A’s have posted a 104 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, while the Rangers have posted a 74 wRC+ against southpaws. The A’s have also been a top-10 bullpen over the past month by xFIP and strikeout minus walk rate.
Ultimately, I project the A’s ML at +103.
Pick: Athletics ML (+130 | Play to +115)
Astros vs. Diamondbacks
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -164 | 9 -102o / -119u | +124 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +134 | 9 -102o / -119u | -151 |
LHP Colton Gordon (HOU) vs. RHP Zac Gallen (ARI)
I prefer Astros starter Colton Goron (4.01 xERA, 15.4% K-BB, 103 Pitching+, 3.23 botERA) to Diamondbacks starter Zac Gallen (4.87 xERA, 4.12 xFIP, 13.1% K-BB, 98 Pitching+, 4.23 botERA).
Gordon is a 26-year-old potential stud with a 113 Stuff+ slider and excellent command (110 Location+, 3.9% BB). Meanwhile, Gallen looks potentially washed, or perhaps he’s been pitching through injury.
Both offenses are in their lesser split, but I strongly prefer the Houston bullpen, which ranks top-two among MLB relief units in xFIP and strikeout minus walk rate. Additionally, the Snakes are currently without many of their key relievers (Jalen Beeks, Justin Martinez, Shelby Miller, AJ Puk, Ryan Thompson).
I project the Astros ML at +112.
Pick: Astros ML (+135 | Play to +120)
Twins vs. Dodgers
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -119 | 9 -102o / -119u | +165 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -102 | 9 -102o / -119u | -203 |
RHP David Festa (MIN) vs. RHP Shohei Ohtani (LAD)
Monday will mark the sixth start for Shohei Ohtani, who finally worked three innings in his most recent outing, throwing 36 pitches. So far, his stuff (119 Stuff+, 109 Pitching+) and results (1.38 xERA) look excellent.
I expect Dustin May 4.90 xERA, 4.35 xFIP, 11.8% K-BB) will piggyback Ohtani, which is troublesome considering his career-worst advanced pitching model metrics (99 Stuff+, 96 Pitching+, 4.09 botERA).
The Dodgers’ bats are slumping, posting a 93 wRC+ over the past month and a 58 wRC+ over the past two weeks. Mookie Betts is struggling mightily (93 wRC+, .302 xwOBA), even getting benched on Saturday.
I prefer the Twins bullpen, which leads the league in xFIP, and ultimately project the team’s ML at +152 for Monday’s road matchup.
Pick: Twins ML (+184 | Play to +165)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Monday, July 21
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- Pirates ML (-118 | Play to -125)
- Nationals ML (+120 | Play to +115)
- Phillies ML (-200 | Play to -220)
- Blue Jays ML (+102 | Play to -105)
- Athletics ML (+130 | Play to +115)
- Astros ML (+135 | Play to +120)
- Twins ML (+184 | Play to +165)
- Angels vs. Mets Under 8.5 (-115 | Play to 8 -105)
- Padres vs. Marlins Under 8.5 (-112) to 8 (+100)
- Reds vs. Nationals Over 8.5 (-120) to 9 (-110)
- White Sox vs. Rays Over 9 (+100) to -110
- Royals vs. Cubs Under 7.5 (+105) to +100
- Tigers vs. Pirates Over 7 (-115) small to -120
- Orioles vs. Guardians Over 8 (-115) small to 8.5 (-105)
- Yankees vs. Blue Jays Under 8.5 (-105) small to -112
