Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Monday, July 7.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
For Monday, I preview Marlins vs. Reds, Blue Jays vs. White Sox, Dodgers vs. Brewers and Diamondbacks vs. Padres. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Monday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Monday
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Monday, July 7
Marlins vs. Reds
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 9 -115o / -105u | +115 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 9 -115o / -105u | -140 |
Janson Junk vs. Brady Singer
Monday's weather in Cincinnati will be 84 degrees (feels like 91) with 3-6 mph winds out to left field. There's rain in the forecast, but more importantly, the humidity is high.
My total projection for this game is up to 9.84 for Monday compared to 9.42 on a weather-neutral day.
Miami's offense is reminiscent of the 2024 Athletics, as it's not deep but it's young and ascending. Over the last 30 days, the Marlins have a 127 wRC+, which ranks 12th in the MLB.
Their position players are young and in their prime, as the entire offensive core is between 25 years old and 28 years old.
Xavier Edwards owns a career 108 wRC+ while Otto Lopez (95), Agustin Ramirez (105), Kyle Stowers (103) and Liam Hicks (124) all contribute as well.
I remain down on Brady Singer, who has a career-low 11% K-BB% and a career-high 4.52 xFIP. He also owns a career-low 35% ground-ball percentage and a lucky 9.2% HR/FB rate (13% for his career).
Great American Ball Park is No. 1 in Park Factor for home run percentage (+28% from 2022-24), so Singer is due to give up some four-baggers.
On the flip side, we're seeing elite results from Janson Junk (37 1/2 IP, 2 walks, 33 strikeouts), but he's command-driven (120 Location+). His Stuff+ (95) is consistent with his career mark (95). He has a good slider (103 Stuff+), but his fastball (96), slider (93), changeup (91) don't reach that mark.
He has the same arsenal, but a 50.9% hard-hit rate indicates regression is likely.
These are a pair of bottom-10 bullpens. Miami is 21st in xFIP and 22nd in K-BB% while Cincinnati is 25th and 26th, respectively.
The Marlins have been better over the last 30 days, though, as they're sixth in xFIP and eighth in K-BB% compared to the Reds' rankings of 19th and 21st, respectively, over that span.
Bet the over.
Pick: Over 9 to -122 or 9.5 to -102
Blue Jays vs. White Sox
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -120 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -200 |
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +100 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +165 |
Jose Berrios vs. Sean Burke
Chicago's weather on Monday at Rate Field will be 76 degrees with 8-10 mph winds out to right field.
Jose Berrios has outperformed his ERA indicators for three straight seasons.
- 2023: 3.65 ERA and 4.51 xERA
- 2024: 3.60 ERA and 4.74 xERA
- 2025: 3.64 ERA and 4.76 xERA
He has a matching 12.6% K-BB% over the last two seasons, which is below average for a starting pitcher.
His Stuff+ is a career-worst 91 and his botERA is a career-high 4.53.
On the other side, Sean Burke is a replacement-level starting pitcher, with a 5.15 xERA, 4.95 xFIP, 9.2% K-BB% and 97 Pitching+.
His FIP projections are 4.67-5.27, with an average of 4.81.
The Jays are a top-10 offense, both season-long (105 wRC+) and over the last 30 days (111 wRC+).
Meanwhile, the White Sox have a bottom-five bullpen (29th in xFIP and K-BB%, including 27th and 29th, respectively in the last 30 days).
The Blue Jays desperately need bullpen help at the trade deadline, as over the last 30 days, they're 30th in xFIP (4.92), 27th in K-BB% (9.5%) and 28th in botERA (4.57)
I'm projecting 9.08 runs in this game, so bet over 8.5 at -112.
Pick: Over 8.5 (Play to -112)
Dodgers vs. Brewers
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +120 | 7.5 -118o / -102u | -140 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -145 | 7.5 -118o / -102u | +115 |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs. Freddy Peralta
Yoshinobu Yamamoto currently owns a 2.83 xERA, 20.2% K-BB% and 3.10 xFIP. His ground-ball percentage has increased by about 6% from 2024, and he's throwing fewer fastballs (-3%) and curves (-5%) while tossing more cutters (+4%) and splitters (+2%).
He gets ambushed early, but he suppresses home runs (0.77 HR/9). In fact, 13 of his 16 career home runs allowed have come the first time through the order. His OPS allowed the second time through the order drops from .695 to .465.
Milwaukee is in its lesser offensive split against a right-handed pitchers. On the season, the Brewers are 24th in wRC+ (98) against righties and 10th in wRC+ (100) against lefties. Over the last 30 days, they're 18th vs. righties and first vs. lefties.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers are first against right-handed pitchers in wRC+ (122) and fourth against left-handed pitchers (118). Over the last 30 days, they're 11th vs. right-handers (109) and fifth vs. left-handers (124)
Freddy Peralta looked better in June than he did across his first 12 starts. Through May, Peralta had a 4.19 xFIP, 14.7% K-BB%, 101 Stuff+, 102 Pitching+ and 4.01 botERA compared to a 3.18 ERA, 3.70 xFIP, 21.3% K-BB%, 105 Stuff+, 108 Pitching+ and 3.62 botERA in June.
The Brewers' bullpen has turned into a shutdown unit, as it's third in xFIP, third in K-BB%, first in Pitching+ and first in botERA over the last 30 days.
I'm projecting 7.25 runs in this game, so the play is on the under down to 7.5.
Pick: Under 8 (Play to 7.5)
Diamondbacks vs. Padres
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 8 -118o / -102u | +110 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +165 | 8 -118o / -102u | -135 |
Zac Gallen vs. Yu Darvish
This is Yu Darvish's 2025 debut (elbow inflammation) after posting a 3.62 xERA and 16.9% K-BB% in 2024.
Darvish missed half of the 2024 season with hamstring tightness and personal issues, so his absence isn't a new thing for the Padres.
In one rehab start in Triple-A, he only threw 51 pitches across four innings while allowing two hits and two runs with one walk and four strikeouts.
His 2025 projections have him in an FIP range of 3.99 to 4.49. I don't expect him to be stretched out on Monday, though.
Meanwhile, Arizona's bullpen is struggling, so it's looking for extra length from its starting pitcher, Zac Gallen. That means a quick hook is unlikely from manager Torey Lovullo.
The bullpen is 18th in xFIP and 13th in K-BB%, but it's down its three best arms, including two (Justin Martinez, A.J. Puk) for the year. Also, now Ryan Thompson has a shoulder strain.
Gallen has a career-worst ERA (5.45) and underlying indicators, including a 4.82 xFIP (previous high 4.16), 12.5% K-BB% (previous low 16.4%) and 98 Pitching+ (previous low 100).
Gallen's FIP projections are from 3.85 to 4.20, but I'd take the over on that range, as he currently has a 4.22 xFIP.
Both offenses are in their superior splits. Arizona is second against right-handed pitchers in wRC+ (121) and 11th (97 wRC+) against left-handed pitchers, while San Diego is 16th (101) and 19th (85), respectively.
The Diamondbacks also welcomed back Corbin Carroll (162 wRC+ vs. right-handers in 2025) into their lineup over the weekend.
I'm projecting 8.74 runs in this one, so bet the over to 8.5.
Pick: Over 8 (Play to 8.5)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Monday, July 7
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- Tigers ML +116 (Play to +105)
- Phillies ML -135 (Play to -142)
- Marlins vs. Reds Over 9 (-115 to -122)
- Blue Jays vs. White Sox Over 8.5 (-105 to -112)
- Dodgers vs. Brewers Under 8 (-115) to 7.5 (+100)
- Diamondbacks vs. Padres Over 8 (-115) to 8.5 (+100)
