It's a smaller slate on the diamond this Thursday, and many bettors will be focused on Week 1 college football action.
Regardless, our staff of MLB betting experts is still locked in on August baseball, bringing five best bets for today's action.
Read on for our MLB best bets, predictions and player props for Thursday, August 28.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 2:10 p.m. | |
  | 2:15 p.m. | |
 | 2:10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Sean Zerillo's Best Bet For Thursday
By Sean Zerillo
Jose Quintana is among the most overvalued pitchers in baseball (3.32 ERA, 5.02 xERA, 4.78 xFIP, 5.05 botERA), mainly because of his career-best BABIP (.254) and near-career-best strand rate (78.6%).
Milwaukee’s defense is excellent, but I don’t expect Quintana to continue overperforming at this level with a 7.8% strikeout minus walk rate and a remarkably low whiff rate.
Hopefully, some regression hits against Arizona, as the Snakes have been mashing southpaws since the trade deadline (129 wRC+).
I’m concerned about Arizona’s bullpen, which ranks dead last among MLB relief units in xFIP and strikeout minus walk rate since the deadline.
Still, I project the Diamondbacks ML at +126. I also project their F5 ML at +113 and would bet that at +122 or better while searching for a middle on Milwaukee’s run line if Arizona has a slight lead entering the latter frames.
Check out Zerillo's entire Opening Pitch Column for Thursday here:
Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+145, BetMGM | Play to +136)
| | |
Derek Carty's MLB Player Prop Pick For Thursday
By Derek Carty
There is a value opportunity on Church's hitter strikeouts prop.
THE BAT X is projecting him to record 0.47 hitter strikeouts, while oddsmakers are implying 0.86.
The model believes there is a 62% chance he records fewer than one hitter strikeout, so there is value on the Under at +160.
Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics!
Also: Want more picks? Click here for an EXCLUSIVE discount! Get $50 off your first month of ScoresAndOdds Premium!
Pick: Nolan Church Under 0.5 Strikeouts (+160, bet365)
| | |
Our Featured MLB Bet Labs System For Thursday
This MLB betting system is based on the premise that sharp money moving totals downward, combined with weak public support for the Under, creates an exploitable edge in the betting market.
The strategy focuses on regular-season games from 2019 to 2025, where the closing total falls between 8 and 10 — sweet spots for scoring volatility.
It isolates games where the over/under line has dropped significantly from open to close, signaling smart money on the Under, yet public sentiment heavily favors the Over, with only a small share of bets backing the Under.
This mismatch between the amount of money and the ticket count indicates potential value, especially when the difference between the two figures is meaningful but not extreme.
Ultimately, this system looks for low-confidence Under that have been steamed down by sharp bettors, where public interest is light and the number still sits within a realistic scoring range. The result is a consistent edge, supported by a large sample size and a strong return on investment.
This system has a 138-99-9 record this season, achieving a 58% win rate and generating an 11% ROI.
Three games fit the model for Thursday: Diamondbacks-Brewers, Pirates-Cardinals, and Marlins-Mets.
Want more Bet Labs systems? Get a subscription to Action PRO today:
Picks:
- Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Under 9 (-120, bet365)
- Pirates vs. Cardinals Under 8.5 (-116, DraftKings)
- Marlins vs. Mets Under 9 (-120, Caesars)
| | |
