Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Thursday, August 28.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Thursday, I preview Diamondbacks vs. Brewers, Pirates vs. Cardinals, and Cubs vs. Giants. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Thursday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Thursday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Thursday, August 28
Diamondbacks vs. Brewers
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 8.5 -118o / -102u | +145 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 8.5 -118o / -102u | -175 |
RHP Nabil Crismatt (ARI) vs. LHP Jose Quintana (MIL)
Jose Quintana is among the most overvalued pitchers in baseball (3.32 ERA, 5.02 xERA, 4.78 xFIP, 5.05 botERA), mainly because of his career-best BABIP (.254) and near-career-best strand rate (78.6%).
Milwaukee’s defense is excellent, but I don’t expect Quintana to continue overperforming at this level with a 7.8% strikeout minus walk rate and a remarkably low whiff rate.
Hopefully, some regression hits against Arizona, as the Snakes have been mashing southpaws since the trade deadline (129 wRC+).
I’m concerned about Arizona’s bullpen, which ranks dead last among MLB relief units in xFIP and strikeout minus walk rate since the deadline.
Still, I project the Diamondbacks ML at +126. I also project their F5 ML at +113 and would bet that at +122 or better while searching for a middle on Milwaukee’s RL if Arizona has a slight lead entering the latter frames.
Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+145 | Play to +136)
Pirates vs. Cardinals
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 8 -115o / -105u | +105 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +165 | 8 -115o / -105u | -130 |
RHP Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) vs. RHP Miles Mikolas (STL)
The Pirates have converted Braxton Ashcraft from a reliever to a starter, and he’s now making his fourth straight start. He’s had solid results (3.30 xERA, 3.49 xFIP, 15% K-BB) by minimizing hard contact and keeping the ball on the ground (51.9% GB).
These are two poor offenses, and Miles Mikolas has owned the Pirates in 122 career head-to-head plate appearances (.611 OPS allowed).
We also have a pitcher-friendly umpire behind the plate in Dan Merzel, and I project 7.9 runs for the game.
Pick: Under 8.5 (+100 | Play to -115)
Cubs vs. Giants
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +165 | 7 -120o / 100u | -102 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 7 -120o / 100u | -118 |
LHP Shota Imanaga (CHC) vs. RHP Logan Webb (SFG)
Shota Imanaga is improving as we move further away from his hamstring strain (IL stint from early May to late June). He’s posted a 2.81 ERA, 3.27 xFIP, 102 Pitching+, and 3.56 botERA over the past month.
Imanaga is a fly-ball pitcher, and Oracle Park’s -21% Home Run Factor should really boost his results.
Projections prefer Logan Webb to Imanaga, but the results are somewhat comparable. Webb’s ground-ball ability makes him a better overall pitcher, but that benefits Imanaga more in this ballpark.
I prefer the Cubs lineup (by 10 points in wRC+) and bullpen (by 0.35 runs in ERA), so I project their ML at -110.
Pick: Cubs ML (+105 | Play to -102)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Thursday, August 28
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- Diamondbacks ML (+145 | Play to +136)
- Cubs ML (+105 | Play to -102)
- Pirates vs. Cardinals Under 8.5 (+100 | Play to -115)
