Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Thursday, June 12.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Thursday, I preview Nationals vs. Mets, Cardinals vs. Brewers, Yankees vs. Royals, and White Sox vs. Astros. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Thursday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Thursday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Thursday, June 12
Nationals vs. Mets
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -105 | 8 -115o / -105u | +195 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -115 | 8 -115o / -105u | -235 |
RHP Michael Soroka (WSN) vs. RHP Kodai Senga (NYM)
We should have hitter-friendly weather in Queens on Thursday, with 88-degree temperatures and eight MPH winds heading out toward right field.
That said, both starting pitchers are in a groove.
Mets starter Kodai Senga (1.59 ERA, 3.31 xERA) has thrown a quality start in six of his last 10 outings. He hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any start this season, and he’s held opponents to two or fewer in eight of 12.
David Peterson threw a complete game shutout for the Mets on Wednesday, and the bullpen will be fully rested behind their ace. It’ll be tough for the Nationals to score, especially given the bats are ice cold (53 wRC+ over the past week, last in MLB).
Conversely, the Mets' bats are white hot (159 wRC+ against righties over the past two weeks, first in MLB). But Nationals starter Mike Soroka is in career-best form (2.99 xERA, 18.3% K-BB, 3.67 botERA) and just produced his best outing since 2019 (6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 7 K, 1 BB vs. TEX).
I project 7.71 runs for this matchup.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-112 | Play to 8 -102)
Cardinals vs. Brewers
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -130 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +110 |
RHP Sonny Gray (STL) vs. RHP Jacob Misiorowski (MIL)
Welcome to The Show, Jacob Misiorowski!
MLB Pipeline’s No. 68 overall prospect and a 2022 second-round pick out of Crowder College in Nebraska, the 6-foot-7 pitcher has legit stuff but shaky control. He’s got an 80-grade fastball that touches 100 MPH with two decent secondary offerings (65-grade curveball, 55-grade slider), but just 40-grade command.
As such, Misiorowski likely runs a high strikeout and walk rate (32% K, 14% BB in Minors). Pitching models project him with a 107 Stuff+ mark based on Triple-A results, but his projected FIP range is around 4.14 to 4.91.
I still prefer Cardinals starter Sonny Gray (projected FIP range of 3.23 to 3.50), but Milwaukee has the better bullpen.
While the Cardinals' offense (110 wRC+) has vastly outperformed the Brewers’ bats (93 wRC+), my model projects them similarly moving forward (105 wRC+ for STL, 103 wRC+ for MIL). Milwaukee also projects as the top Baserunning team in my model and currently leads all MLB teams in BsR.
I project the Brewers ML at -102.
Pick: Brewers ML (+110 | Play to +106)
Yankees vs. Royals
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +110 | 9 -110o / -110u | -155 |
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -135 | 9 -110o / -110u | +125 |
RHP Will Warren (NYY) vs. RHP Seth Lugo (KCR)
Royals starting pitcher Seth Lugo is due for significant negative regression (3.46 ERA, 5.21 xERA), mainly because he’s running a low BABIP (.253) and a high strand rate (83%). His decreased velocity and a career-low strikeout-minus-walk rate (11.9%) will catch up to him.
Yankees starter Will Warren is the opposite (5.34 ERA, 3.78 xERA), as he’s running a high BABIP (.324) and low strand rate (62%). That said, he also owns a super high hard-hit rate (50.2%) and barrel rate (10.4%) allowed, and the Royals are much better against right-handed pitching (90 wRC+) than southpaws (69 wRC+).
Umpire Alfonso Marquez is a hitter-friendly balls-and-strikes guy (career 52.9% to the Over, 2.4% ROI), and I project 9.78 runs for this matchup.
Update: No Aaron Judge in the Yankees lineup; updated projections Yankees -101 and 9.18 runs.
Pick: Over 9 (-105 | Play to +100 after lineups) | Royals ML (+120 | Play to +110)
White Sox vs. Astros
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +100 | 7.5 -118o / -102u | +220 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -120 | 7.5 -118o / -102u | -275 |
RHP Davis Martin (CWS) vs. LHP Framber Valdez (HOU)
White Sox starter Davis Martin (projected FIP range of 4.25 to 4.51) is no worse than Sean Burke (projected FIP range of 4.74 to 5.40).
I bet the Under 8.5 (-110) between these two on Wednesday with lesser pitchers, and it closed 8 (-104). As I’ve written many times on these virtual pages, I’ll continue to target Unders and opponents when Houston faces righties (97 wRC+ vs. RHP, 123 wRC+ vs. LHP).
Astros starter Framber Valdez (3.62 xERA, 3.24 botERA) has been much better in May and June than he was in April, and the White Sox are slightly worse against lefties (77 wRC+) than righties (83 wRC+).
Umpire Brennan Miller is very pitcher-friendly (career 61-31-2 to the Under, 66.3%, +27% ROI), and I project 6.98 runs for this game.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-105 | Play to -110)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Thursday, June 12
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Brewers ML (+110 | Play to +106)
- Royals ML (+120 | Play to +110)
- Nationals vs. Mets Under 8.5 (-112 | Play to 8 -102)
- Pirates vs. Cubs Under 7.5 (-115 | Play to -120)
- Yankees vs. Royals Over 9 (-105 | Play to +100 after lineups)
- White Sox vs. Astros Under 7.5 (-105 | Play to -110)
