Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Thursday, October 9.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Thursday, I preview Phillies vs. Dodgers and Brewers vs. Cubs. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Thursday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Thursday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Thursday, October 9
Series Moneyline Corner
My updated series projections put Milwaukee at 78.7% (-369 implied) over Chicago, and Los Angeles at 78.3% (-362 implied) over Philadelphia. In the prop market, I make Brewers 3-2 +273, and Dodgers 3-2 +318.
You can find actionable edges on both favorites relative to my projected series lines; the Brewers are -320 (76.2% implied) and the Dodgers are -330 (76.4% implied) at FanDuel; projected edges of 2.5% and 1.9%, respectively.
I'd make the fair odds on a parlay of those series lines around -161 (61.6% implied), and you can get -141 (58.5% implied) at FanDuel; a 3.1% edge (higher than betting either individually), and an example of compounding your edge with a +EV parlay.
The Dodgers' updated futures projections place them between +187 and +122 (average of +157) to win the World Series, and between -124 and -156 (average of -134) to win the NL Pennant.
Best available odds have the Dodgers at -105 (51.2% implied) to win the NL Pennant and +200 (33.3% implied) to win the World Series.
The pennant odds offer an edge of 6.1% compared to the average projection of -134, after dropping from roughly -170 before Game 3. In contrast, the World Series odds offer an edge of approximately 5.5%, having moved back up from +160.
This could be your final chance to invest in Dodgers futures at reasonable prices.
Phillies vs. Dodgers
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 7.5 -120o / 100u | +110 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +160 | 7.5 -120o / 100u | -130 |
Cristopher Sanchez vs. Tyler Glasnow
The Dodgers and Phillies will have a rare 3:08 p.m. local time start at Dodger Stadium on Thursday, which initially concerned me about abnormal shadows. However, games played in that timeslot are 163-152-15 to the Over at Dodger Stadium since 2005, alleviating that concern.
The ball generally flies better at Dodger Stadium during the day than it does at night (+2% to the run scoring factor, day 104 vs. night 102 per Baseball Savant), and the park will feature good hitting weather on Thursday — 81 degrees (84 real feel) at first pitch, with 5-to-6 MPH winds blowing out to right field.
Moreover, the game will have a hitter-friendly umpire behind the dish in Mark Wegner (career 294-273-23 or 51.8% to the Over); his 11.4% K-BB% is 2.7% below the MLB average.
Cristopher Sanchez has shown a notable home/road split both throughout his career (2.79 xFIP, 21.4% K-BB% at home; 3.54 xFIP, 12.3% K-BB% on the road) and in 2025 (2.44 xFIP, 26% K-BB% at home, 3.09 xFIP, 16.3% K-BB% on the road). He permitted four runs over seven innings at Dodger Stadium in mid-September, but did also face their offense — which ranked second against left-handed pitching (113 wRC+) — last Saturday.
The Phillies have less familiarity with Tyler Glasnow, who had an abbreviated outing in Philadelphia in April (2 IP, 2 H, 5 R, 5 BB, 2 K). Still, he's thrown just 4 2/3 innings total since September 20, including a 34-pitch relief appearance in Game 1.
Glasnow struggled with his command down the stretch (3.71 xFIP, 17.4% K-BB%) and his numbers were down this year (3.25 xERA, 3.72 xFIP, 17.2% K-BB%, 98 Stuff+, 4.39 botERA) relative to recent seasons (2.66 xERA, 2.90 xFIP, 25.5% K-BB%, 108 Stuff+, 3.46 botERA).
The Dodgers opened as -106 favorites for Game 4, but quickly moved as high as -125 – in alignment with my projected odds.
However, I set the total at 8.25 runs, and would bet Over 7.5 to -115 pregame, or I'd wait for a live Over 7.
Pick: Over 7.5 (-115 | Bet to 8 -105) | Cristopher Sanchez Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115 | Bet to -130) | Tyler Glasnow Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+126 | Bet to +105)
Brewers vs. Cubs
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 7 -120o / 100u | -125 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -165 | 7 -120o / 100u | +105 |
TBD vs. TBD
As of Thursday night, the Brewers and Cubs have yet to announce their Game 4 starters.
It's anticipated that Freddy Peralta would retake the ball in Game 4, after looking dominant in Game 1, but he has shown a notable home/road split this season (3.58 xFIP, 21.9% K-BB% at home; 4.15 xFIP, 16.2% K-BB% on the road). The Brewers may try to win Game 4 without him, allowing him to pitch Game 1 and potentially up to three times in the NLCS.
The Cubs' pitching usage should involve the starters — some turned relievers — who took the mound for them in Game 1, including Matthew Boyd (3.72 xERA, 4.22 xFIP, 15.6% K-BB%), Michael Soroka (3.42 xERA, 4.21 xFIP, 17.4% K-BB%), and Aaron Civale (4.16 xERA, 4.73 xFIP, 12.6% K-BB%).
Otherwise, their high-leverage arms remain relatively well rested; only Daniel Palencia and Drew Pomeranz have pitched twice in this series, and they had an off-day between appearances. Brad Keller worked a multi-inning stint on Wednesday, but tossed just 19 pitches.
The Brewers deployed their non-starting starters (Jose Quintana, Nick Anderson, Chad Patrick) on Wednesday, but also utilized Jared Koenig and Nick Mears each for the third time in the series. Still, Trevor McGill and Abner Uribe are fresh at the back of their bullpen, and Milwaukee has Robert Gasser, who projects significantly better than his results (5.11 xERA, 6.84 xFIP) as a long option.
Conditions will be chilly (56-to-58 degrees with a 6 MPH crossbreeze) for Thursday's extremely rare 9:08 p.m. ET start at Wrigley Field. In fact, a post-9 pm ET start time has only happened six times at Wrigley since 2005 — including four postseason games — and the Under is 5-1 in those contests (3-1 in the postseason).
Plate umpire Lance Barksdale is the third most profitable under umpire in our database (54.4% +5.4% ROI since 2005), but he carries a below-average K-BB% (11.7%) and grades closer to neutral in my model.
Assuming Peralta starts for Milwaukee against one of Boyd, Soroka, or Civale — all of whom should factor into Game 4 — I'd set the total at 6.5 runs; bet Under 7.5 to 7 (-110).
And I suppose you can probably look for a live under for the fourth consecutive game of this series, as the starters continue to implode in the first and second innings before the bullpens grab the reins.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-115| Bet to 7 -110)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Thursday, October 9
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Sides and Totals
- Cubs/Brewers Under 7.5 (-115, 1u) at Fanatics; bet to 7 (-110)
- Dodgers/Phillies Over 7.5 (-115, 1u) at FanDuel; bet to 8 (-105)
Player Props
- Cristioher Sanchez Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115, 0.1u) at Fanatics; bet to -130
- Tyler Glasnow Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+126, 0.1u) at DraftKings; bet to +105
Futures and Props
- NL Pennant: Los Angeles Dodgers (-105, 1u) at DraftKings; Bet to -125
- World Series: Los Angeles Dodgers (+200, 0.5u) at FanDuel; Bet to +170
