MLB Predictions Tuesday | Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today (April 23)
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Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
As a reminder, you can find all of my bets in the Action Network App and get live alerts every time I log a new bet.
You can also find expert projections for every MLB game in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Tuesday, April 23.
MLB Predictions Tuesday | Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today (April 23)
Marlins vs. Braves
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -104 | 8.5 -118o / -104u | +194 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -115 | 8.5 -118o / -104u | -235 |
Trevor Rogers vs. Max Fried
Left-hander Trevor Rogers missed most of the 2023 season due to a biceps strain in his pitching arm.
Still, he showcased a new sinker that he's carried into 2024, and in eight starts over the past two seasons, Rogers has dialed back on his four-seam fastball usage (52.9% career, 32.2% in 2024) in exchange for that sinker, leading to a dramatic increase in ground-ball rate (42% in 2022, 52% over the past two seasons).
With the sinker, Rogers' pitch modeling metrics don't significantly adjust, and his projections (projected FIP range of 3.73 to 4.12) remain fairly relative to his career averages (4.11 ERA, 3.80 xFIP).
Statcast likes the increased ground-ball rate — and weak contact — pegging Rogers at a 3.37 xERA (or expected ERA), which is precisely in line with his breakout 2021 season (while throwing his fastball two ticks harder).
If nothing else, I'm confident that Rogers can still compete despite his velocity dip, and I view his 2022 season (5.47 ERA, 4.84 xERA) as the clear outlier in his profile. He should also continue to suppress home runs (career 0.82 HR/9).
Max Fried (7.71 ERA, 4.89 xERA, 4.41 xFIP) has had a rough start to his 2024 campaign. He's had a pair of starts where he posted more walks than strikeouts, something he hadn't done in any start since 2021. However, his velocity readouts and pitch modeling metrics remain aligned with his injury limited 2023 campaign (2.55 ERA, 2.73 xERA, 3.10 xFIP).
I'd be more concerned about Fried potentially pitching through injury, but he was sharp last September until suffering a blister issue.
Fried has never been a pitch model or projections darling — his arsenal and control typically rate around league average — and he doesn't post dominant strikeout numbers.
Like the current version of Rogers, Fried keeps the ball on the ground (53.5% career ground-ball rate) and limits homers (career 0.81 HR/9) with a low barrel rate (4.5% career). Again like Rogers, Fried's ground-ball rate also climbed to a career-high 58.1% over the past two seasons.
They'll both have the added benefit of wind blowing at their backs in from right field, which should decrease the run-scoring environment at Truist Park by more than 5% compared to an average evening.
I projected Tuesday's total in Atlanta at 8.26 runs — bet under 9 to -118 or under 8.5 to +100.
Bet: Under 9 (to -118) OR Under 8.5 (+100 or better)
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Orioles vs. Angels
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +112 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -146 |
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -134 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +124 |
Grayson Rodriguez vs. Griffin Canning
While rookie Jared Jones is the Pitching+ king in the National League, Grayson Rodriguez (116 Stuff+, 109 Pitching+) has maintained his top spot in the American League since his recall last July.
Over 17 starts in that span, Rodriguez has posted a 2.59 ERA, 2.96 FIP and 3.65 xFIP while limiting hard contact with a low barrel rate (4.4%, which is third among 131 starters with at least 50 innings).
Projections for Rodriguez (projected FIP range of 3.63 to 3.87) are a bit more conservative than his 2024 indicators (2.63 ERA, 3.45 xERA, 3.49 xFIP). However, pitching models would put Grayson's ERA in the low twos, with four above-average offerings, one elite out pitch (142 Stuff+ on his changeup) and plus command.
At this point, I still like Rodriguez to win the AL Cy Young Award at +1500 or better.
I have always been high on his opponent's potential, Griffin Canning, but there are significant red flags in Canning's profile this season.
Canning's fastball velocity is down nearly two full ticks (from 94.8 mph to 92.9 mph), his Stuff+ rating is down to 84 (compared to 96 last season) and his strikeout rate has declined by 7.5% (from 25.9% to 18.2%).
Canning missed the entirety of the 2022 season due to complications from a stress fracture in his back and may have re-aggravated that injury or experienced another ailment.
He showed his best velocity of the season (93.7 mph) in his last start against the Rays, but only posted a 91 Stuff+ in that outing. Canning's slider (109 Stuff+), his lone above-average offering, was significantly sharper last season (124 Stuff+).
I projected the Orioles as -170 favorites for the first half of Tuesday's contest. Bet Baltimore on the F5 (first five innings) moneyline up to -155.
Bets: Orioles F5 Moneyline (-155 or better)
Zerillo's Bets for Tuesday, April 23
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- Baltimore Orioles F5 (-140, Risk 1u) at FanDuel (bet to -155)
- Boston Red Sox / Cleveland Guardians, Under 8.5 (+100, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -106)
- Cleveland Guardians (-115, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -120)
- Chicago Cubs (+102, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +100)
- Chicago White Sox (+250, 0.1u) at ESPNBet (poke to +220)
- Miami Marlins / Atlanta Braves, Under 9 (-105, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to 8.5, +100)
- Oakland Athletics / New York Yankees, Over 7.5 (-118, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to 8, -110)
- San Francisco Giants F5 (-135, 0.25u) at WynnBet (small to -140)
- San Francisco Giants (-126, 0.5u) at Superbook (bet to -135)
- San Diego Padres F5 (-150, Risk 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -155)
- San Diego Padres / Colorado Rockies, Over 9.5 (-115, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to 10, -103)
- Texas Rangers (+105, 0.25u) at ESPNBet (small to +100)
- Toronto Blue Jays / Kansas City Royals, Under 8.5 (-110, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -110)
- Washington Nationals (+202, 0.1u) at Caesars (poke to +165)
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