MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks: Tuesday Model Predictions

MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks: Tuesday Model Predictions article feature image

Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images. Pictured: Logan Webb.

MLB NRFI & YRFI picks on Monday wasn't much fun. We went 1-2 across three picks, with a Mark Canha solo home run as part of a Tigers offensive explosion (who saw that coming?) making the difference between a profit and a loss.

We have four more picks for Tuesday, including a team-specific YRFI, and a fun workaround to cut the juice on a NRFI. Not featured? A Coors field YRFI. I'm throwing in the towel on those, for now.

Let's get into my MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks: Tuesday Model Predictions.

MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks: Tuesday Model Predictions

Mets vs. Giants

Tuesday, April 23
9:45 p.m. ET
NRFI -130 (Bet to -145)

Starting Pitchers: Luis Severino vs. Logan Webb

It was recently brought to my attention that there's two ways to bet NRFIs at Caesars. The way I'd been using is under the "popular" tab, listed as "any run first inning."

The "no" on that prop is -150 for this game. However, by scrolling over to the "Inning Bets" tab, you can bet on specific totals of runs to be scored. There, 0 runs is listed at -130.

That's obviously a considerable difference, and I wouldn't take this bet at the -150 on the main tab. I love it at the other price, though.

We've got a seven-run total, and two pitchers who've been much better early on in 2024 — meaning it's probably an even better bet than my model suggests.

Red Sox vs. Guardians

Tuesday, April 23
6:10 p.m. ET
YRFI +105 (Bet to -110)

Starting Pitchers: Tanner Houck vs. Ben Lively

Both teams involved are good examples of what my model is designed to predict on offense.

The Guardians have four average-to-above MLB hitters in their lineup, and they all hit in the first four spots in the order. Boston's top three hitters all have wRC+ numbers (dating to the start of 2023) of at least 120, while the rest of the lineup is considerably worse.

That means the bulk of the 8.5-runs implied by the game total should come via those hitters — all of whom are guaranteed to hit in the first inning. That makes this a solid bet at plus money.

Athletics vs. Yankees

Tuesday, April 23
7:05 p.m. ET
Yankees YRFI +200 (Bet to +180)

Starting Pitcher (for Oakland): Paul Blackburn

BetRivers (and similar books using the same odds provider) have joined the party in offering single-team YRFI options.

I have the Yankees projected to score a run about 37% of the time, or implied odds of +170. That makes the +200 offered solid value.

Another alternative is the Yankees' three-way moneyline (which loses in case of a tie) at +231 on Caesars, but that obviously introduces a bit more variance to the equation.

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Blue Jays vs. Royals

Tuesday, April 23
7:40 p.m. ET
NRFI -115 (Bet to -125)

Starting Pitchers: Kevin Gausman vs. Michael Wacha

While this game has an 8.5-run implied total, both Gausman and Wacha have strong early game splits.

Additionally, both lineups are fairly "balanced" so those runs are nearly as equally likely to be produced by hitters further down the lineup. Nothing fancy here, just an old-fashioned NRFI pick at a solid price.

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