Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Tuesday, August 12.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Tuesday, I preview Cubs vs. Blue Jays, Pirates vs. Brewers, Padres vs. Giants, and Dodgers vs. Angels. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Tuesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Tuesday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Tuesday, August 12
Cubs vs. Blue Jays
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 9 -105o / -115u | +110 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 9 -105o / -115u | -135 |
RHP Ben Brown (CHC) vs. RHP Jose Berrios (TOR)
The Blue Jays pieced together a two-phase Rogers Centre renovation in 2023 and 2024, reducing the foul territory and bringing the power alleys in. As a result, we’ve seen a drastic increase in the Park Factors (+6% Runs, +16% Home Runs) due to fewer popouts and more extra-base hits.
The roof will likely be open on Monday, with 82-degree temperatures — i.e., hitting weather.
These are two elite offenses, as the Blue Jays and Cubs rank among the top-three MLB lineups in wRC+. Specifically, these two lineups have super low strikeout rates and tend to grind opposing pitchers down.
Meanwhile, we have two shaky starting pitchers and two even shakier bullpens.
Cubs starter Ben Brown (6.04 ERA, 4.45 xERA, 18.8% K-BB, 97 Pitching+, 4.25 botERA) only has two pitches that he trusts, and thus becomes far less effective as he works deeper through the order.
Blue Jays starter Jose Berrios is on pace for some career-worst numbers (4.60 xERA, 4.34 xFIP, 12.5% K-BB, 93 Pitching+, 4.70 botERA).
All that said, I prefer the Cubs on defense, and I project their ML at -110.
I also project the total at 9.5 runs.
Pick: Cubs ML (+112 | Play to -101) & Over 9 (-105 | Play to -110)
Pirates vs. Brewers
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +170 | 7 -105o / -115u | +100 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -210 | 7 -105o / -115u | -120 |
RHP Paul Skenes (PIT) vs. RHP Freddy Peralta (MIL)
Pirates superstar starting pitcher Paul Skenes looks like he’s re-emphasizing his four-seamer while beginning to move away from his splitter. The split grades as his worst pitch (92 Stuff+) and has the worst results in his arsenal (.330 xwOBA).
Since making the change, Skenes has seen some of his metrics improve, including his xFIP (2.88), strikeout minus walk rate (35.9%), and botERA (2.82).
Brewers starter Freddy Peralta is solid but still a tier below Skenes (3.64 xERA, 4.05 xFIP, 4.02 botERA, 16.9% K-BB).
We have a pitcher-friendly plate boss for this game in Roberto Ortiz, who is 104-80-11 to the Under in his career (56.5% win, 8.1% ROI).
I project the Pirates ML at -106, the Pirates F5 ML at -130, and the total at 6.22.
Pick: Pirates ML (+110 | Play to +100) & Pirates F5 ML (-110 | Play Smaller to -120) & Under 7 (-115 | Play to -120)
Padres vs. Giants
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -210 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | +110 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +170 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | -130 |
LHP Nestor Cortes (SDP) vs. LHP Robbie Ray (SFG)
Padres starting pitcher Nestor Cortes had several productive seasons in the Bronx (3.65 xERA across 42 starts), but his stock has plummeted after one bad outing against his former team during Torpedo Bat Week (2 IP, 6 H, 8 R, 5 HR, 5 BB, 2 K). It’s easy to forget that projections are still high on him (4.12 to 4.73 FIP range, 4.20 average).
Giants starter Robbie Ray is in line for Comeback Player of the Year (3.39 xERA, 16.1% K-BB, 3.96 xFIP). However, advanced pitching models aren’t quite that high on him (97 Stuff+, 4.67 botERA). He also typically wears down as the season progresses, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a second-half dip in production.
I prefer the Padres’ offensive splits with both teams facing a southpaw, and I much prefer their bullpen — they have a top-six bullpen since the deadline.
I project the Padres ML at -103.
Pick: Padres ML (+112 | Play to +105)
Dodgers vs. Angels
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 9.5 -120o / 100u | -175 |
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 9.5 -120o / 100u | +145 |
RHP Emmet Sheehan (LAD) vs. RHP Victor Mederos (LAA)
Angels starting pitcher Tyler Anderson has crashed back to Earth (4.63 ERA, 4.69 xERA, 5.19 xFIP) after overperforming last season (3.81 ERA, 4.37 xERA, 4.85 xFIP). If anything, he’s still overperforming in the BABIP department (.268 BABIP) despite playing in front of a bad defensive team (the Angels rank among the bottom-two MLB teams in DRS and OAA).
The Dodgers are struggling in the bullpen over the past month, and we have a hitter-friendly umpire in Scott Berry.
I project 10.15 runs for this game.
Pick: Over 9.5 (-105 | Play to -115)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Tuesday, August 12
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- Cubs ML (+112 | Play to -101)
- Diamondbacks ML (+120 | Play to +120)
- Pirates ML (+110 | Play to +100)
- Pirates F5 ML (-110 | Play to -120)
- Padres ML (+112 | Play to +105)
- Mariners vs. Orioles Over 9 (-110 | Play to -118)
- Cubs vs. Blue Jays Over 9 (-105 | Play to -110)
- Pirates vs. Brewers Under 7 (-115 | Play to -120)
- Tigers vs. White Sox Over 8.5 (-114 | Play to 9 -108)
- Red Sox vs. Astros Under 8.5 (-115 | Play to 8 +100)
- Dodgers vs. Angels Over 9.5 (-105 | Play to -115)
- Rays vs. Athletics Over 9.5 (-110 | Play to 10, -115)
