Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Tuesday, August 26.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Tuesday, I preview Braves vs. Marlins, Phillies vs. Mets, Padres vs. Mariners, and Tigers vs. Athletics. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Tuesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Tuesday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Tuesday, August 26
Braves vs. Marlins
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 8 -105o / -115u | -125 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 8 -105o / -115u | +105 |
RHP Hurston Waldrep (ATL) vs. RHP Sandy Alcantara (MIA)
I’m continuing to buy Braves starting pitcher Hurston Waldrep (No. 24 pick in 2023 draft out of Florida). He’s the second rookie in MLB history to win each of his first four appearances while allowing one or fewer earned runs in each start (Fernando Valenzuela).
Waldrep has a six-pitch arsenal with a double-plus splitter (142 Stuff+) and a plus slider (106 Stuff+). He recently changed his mechanics and pitch mix to fix his command issues from the minors, and it’s made all the difference (107 Location+).
The Braves have the better lineup (projected 112 wRC+ vs. RHPs) compared to the Marlins (projected 89 wRC+ vs. RHPs), and Atlanta has smashed Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara over a 204-plate-appearance sample (.871 OPS, 10.2% BB, 20% K).
I project the Braves ML at -141.
Pick: Braves ML (-118 | Play to -130)
Phillies vs. Mets
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -115 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -105 |
LHP Jesus Luzardo (PHI) vs. LHP Sean Manaea (NYM)
Phillies starter Jesus Luzardo is excellent when he’s not tipping pitches (12 ER vs. MIL on 5/31, 8 ER vs. TOR on 6/5). His underlying indicators are borderline-Ace level (3.46 xERA, 3.26 xFIP, 20% K-BB, 110 Pitching+, 3.41 botERA).
Philadelphia’s best bullpen will be behind Luzardo on Tuesday, with Matt Strahm, Jose Alvarado, Orion Kerkering and Jhoan Duran all available. That quartet is among the best back-end reliever groupings in the sport.
Mets starter Sean Manaea looks good under the hood (3.77 xERA, career-high 23.3% K-BB, career-best 3.70 botERA). That said, he’s struggling with stamina and working multiple times through the order, so I wouldn’t mind targeting a live Over after three innings or when the leadoff hitter comes up the second time.
These two southpaws push both offenses into lesser splits. Over the past month, the Mets are 6% worse against lefties than righties, while the Phillies are 20% worse against the left side.
I project 7.73 runs for this game.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-112 | Play to 8 +100)
Padres vs. Mariners
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +165 | 8 -115o / -105u | -105 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 8 -115o / -105u | -115 |
RHP Dylan Cease (SDP) vs. RHP Luis Castillo (RHP)
A warm front is passing through the Pacific Northwest, and we’re expecting more warm, hitter-friendly weather on Tuesday in Seattle.
I project both offenses well above average (113 wRC+ vs. RHPs for San Diego, 116 wRC+ vs. RHPs for Seattle).
Mariners starter Luis Castillo is due for negative regression (3.57 ERA, 4.38 xERA), and his strikeout minus walk rate has hit a career low (14.1%).
Padres starter Dylan Cease is a much better pitcher, but patient offenses can wait him out, like when he walked six guys against the Dodgers. His 39.6% zone rate is the third-lowest among qualified starting pitchers.
Meanwhile, the Mariners lead the American League in pitches per plate appearance.
I project 8.51 runs for this game.
Pick: Over 7.5 (-115 | Play to 8 -110)
Tigers vs. Athletics
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +105 | 11 -105o / -115u | -145 |
| Athletics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -125 | 11 -105o / -115u | +120 |
RHP Charlie Morton (DET) vs. RHP Osvaldo Bido (ATH)
The Athletics offense is white-hot (121 wRC+ over the past 30 days), and I actually project them as the better offense against right-handed pitching than Detroit.
The A’s bullpen has been better lately, ranking top-10 among MLB relief corps in xFIP and strikeout minus walk rate over the past month.
Sutter Health is a terrible ballpark for late-career Charlie Morton, who has allowed more fly balls and home runs than ever before.
I still think Morton is better than Osvaldo Bido, but I still make the A’s ML +100 on Tuesday.
Pick: Athletics ML (+122 | Play to +110)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Tuesday, August 26
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- Braves ML (-118 | Play to -130)
- Angels ML (+100 | Play to -108)
- Athletics ML (+122 | Play to +110)
- Phillies vs. Mets Under 8.5 (-112 | Play to 8 +100)
- Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Under 8 (+100 | Play to -112)
- Padres vs. Marinres Over 7.5 (-115 | Play to 8 -110)
