Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Tuesday, August 5.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Tuesday, I preview Athletics vs. Nationals, Brewers vs. Braves, Yankees vs. Rangers, and Padres vs. Diamondbacks. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Tuesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Tuesday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Tuesday, August 5
Athletics vs. Nationals
| Athletics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 8.5 -102o / -118u | +115 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 8.5 -102o / -118u | -135 |
RHP Luis Severino (ATH) vs. LHP MacKenzie Gore (WSN)
Nationals starting pitcher MacKenzie Gore has struggled over the past six weeks.
| MacKenzie Gore | ERA / xFIP | K-BB% | Pitching+ / botERA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Through Mid-June | 2.89 / 2.80 | 27.1% | 105 / 3.65 |
| Since June 20th | 6.06 / 5.22 | 4.3% | 87 / 4.95 |
Athletics starting pitcher Luis Severino is much better away from Sutter Health Park (3.03 ERA on the road, 6.34 ERA at home), but his underlying indicators are relatively comparable (4.78 xFIP on the road, 4.34 xFIP at home).
That said, the A’s offense is white hot (115 wRC+ over the past month, third), their bullpen is slightly better in this matchup (although neither relief corps gives me confidence), and they’re slightly better on defense (although neither defense gives me confidence).
Ultimately, I project the A’s ML at +104 and the total at 9.02.
Pick: Athletics ML (+125 | Play to +115) & Over 8.5 (+100 | Play to -110)
Brewers vs. Braves
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +110 | 8 -105o / -115u | -150 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -130 | 8 -105o / -115u | +125 |
RHP Freddy Peralta (MIL) vs. LHP Joey Wentz (ATL)
The Braves are continuing to stretch out Joey Wentz as a starter, and he’s been better than his 5.02 ERA indicates (3.89 xERA, 4.59 xFIP), as shown by his six shutout innings against the Royals in his most recent start. He has a solid curveball (103 Stuff+) and improving command (102 Location+).
Brewers starting pitcher Freddy Peralta is having command issues, walking seven batters with a 92 Location+ mark over his past two starts (Cubs, Dodgers).
Atlanta’s bullpen is underperforming (projected 3.80 FIP, 4.58 xFIP over the past month), so I project a smaller gap between these two relief corps than the recent results suggest.
I project the Braves ML at -101 and the total at 7.23.
Pick: Braves ML (+125 | Play to +110) & Under 8 (-110 | Play to 7.5 +100)
Yankees vs. Rangers
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 8 -120o / 100u | +118 |
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 8 -120o / 100u | -135 |
RHP Will Warren (NYY) vs. RHP Nathan Eovaldi (TEX)
Aaron Judge should return to the lineup after a 10-day absence, and the Yankees need him — they’re MLB’s top offense with him (118 wRC+) yet rank around average without him (100 wRC+).
While the public projection on the two is very different, I personally view Yankees starter Will Warren and Rangers starter Nathan Eovaldi somewhat similarly.
| Pitcher | xERA / xFIP | K-BB% | Pitching+ / botERA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Eovaldi | 3.26 / 2.90 | 21.5% | 102 / 4.00 |
| Will Warren | 4.08 / 3.57 | 15.8% | 104 / 3.69 |
Warren has better stuff (three pitches with above 100 Stuff+), although Eovaldi has a decent fastball (100 Stuff+), a solid curveball (106 Stuff+), and better command.
Ultimately, New York’s defense has let Warren down (.322 BABIP), while Texas’s defense has helped Eovaldi out (.257 BABIP, 85.6% strand). Eovaldi is also due for plenty of HR/FB regression (6.6%).
I project the Yankees ML at +103 with Judge (+127 without).
Pick: Yankees ML (+118 | Play to +112)
Padres vs. Diamondbacks
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +118 | 9 -118o / -102u | -135 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -140 | 9 -118o / -102u | +115 |
RHP Yu Darvish (SDP) vs. RHP Ryne Nelson (ARI)
Padres starter Yu Darvish is rounding into form (3.81 xERA, 3.22 botERA). His command took a few starts to return, but he shoved in his most recent outing (7 IP, 2 H, 0 BB, 7 K, 115 Pitching+).
The Padres’ bullpen has uber-elite potential. They ranked among the top-six MLB relief corps in xFIP and strikeout minus walk rate, and then added Mason Miller.
Diamondbacks starter Ryne Nelson is an underrated mid-rotation starter (3.20 ERA, 4.06 xERA, 108 Stuff+, 106 Pitching+), and the lineup is worse without Josh Naylor or Eugenio Suarez (73 wRC+ over the past fortnight, last).
I project the total at 8.4.
Pick: Under 9 (+100 | Play to -105)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Tuesday, August 5
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- Astros ML (-110 | Play to -115)
- Athletics ML (+125 | Play to +115)
- Braves ML (+125 | Play to +110)
- Yankees ML (+118 | Play to +112)
- Athletics vs. Padres Over 8.5 (+100 | Play to -110)
- Blue Jays vs. Rockies Over 11.5 (+100 | Play to -105)
- Padres vs. Diamondbacks Under 9 (+100 | Play to -105)
