Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Tuesday, July 8.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
For Tuesday, I preview Rays vs. Tigers, Mariners vs. Yankees, Cubs vs. Twins and Braves vs. Athletics. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Tuesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Tuesday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Tuesday, July 8
Rays vs. Tigers
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -210 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +105 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +160 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -125 |
Ryan Pepiot vs. Jack Flaherty
This is another fade of Jack Flaherty, as his injured arm is wearing down and he's falling behind more in counts. Through May 31, Flaherty has a 3.94 ERA, 3.39 xFIP, 22% K-BB%, 100 Pitching+ and 5.12 botERA.
Since that date, he has a 6.60 ERA, 4.29 xFIP, 14.3% K-BB%, 92 Pitching+ and 5.12 botERA.
Flaherty struggled in the second half of last season, too. The Yankees backed out of a deal at the trade deadline due to his medicals, and he had a very soft free agency market in the offseason.
In the first half of 2024, Flaherty had a 2.53 xFIP and 27.8% K-BB%. Meanwhile, in the second half of the 2024 season, he posted a 3.65 xFIP and 19.1% K-BB%.
On the flip side, Ryan Pepiot (3.93 xERA, 16.5% K-BB%, 109 Pitching+, 3.15 botERA) has a higher floor and ceiling and has shown better strikeout stuff lately (19.9% strikeout rate through May 31 and 34.4% since).
These are two hot offenses, as the Rays are No. 1 in the MLB in wRC+ over the last 30 days (127) while the Tigers are No. 4 (121).
I prefer the Rays' bullpen to the Tigers', as it's fifth in xFIP and fourth in K-BB% compared to Detroit's stats of 10th and 19th, respectively.
I project the Rays ML at -114 for the first five innings and -112 for the game.
I also have the total set at 8.88 runs.
Pick: Rays ML (Play to -103) | Small Play on Rays F5 to -105 | Over 8.5 to -105
Mariners vs. Yankees
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +165 | 9 -105o / -115u | +100 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 9 -105o / -115u | -120 |
Logan Gilbert vs. Will Warren
Logan Gilbert has ascended this season, as he's sitting first among starting pitchers (minimum 50 innings pitched) in K-BB% (31.3%) and xFIP (2.12).
To compare him against another great starter, Tarik Skubal has a 30.7% K-BB% and 2.27 xFIP in 2025. In the preseason, I rated them about the same, and even though I prefer Skubal now, Gilbert is my No. 1 overall starting pitcher behind Paul Skenes
Gilbert has been a bit unlucky in his four starts since his return from the injured list (right elbow strain), posting a 4.95 ERA vs. 2.68 xFIP, 29.8% K-BB%, 3.22 botERA and 117 Pitching+. Before the injured list, his stats consisted of a 2.37 ERA, 1.75 xFIP, 32.5% K-BB%, 3.05 botERA and 115 Pitching+.
The Yankees' offense is in a colder stretch, and their bullpen has turned into a pumpkin. Over the last 30 days, the offense is 12th in the MLB in wRC+ (108), although they've improved to fourth in wRC+ over the last 14 days.
Meanwhile, the bullpen is 19th in xFIP and 26th in K-BB% over the last 30 days. It's even down to 26th in both categories over the last 14 days.
Seattle's offense is always better away from T-Mobile Park, as it's third in the MLB in wRC+ (117) on the road compared to 15th at home (106). I prefer the Mariners' bullpen, too.
Will Warren's velocity, stuff and command is down in his last two starts. In his last outing, Warren's velocity was down to 92.2 (his season average in 2024 was 93.3). His Stuff+ is down from 103 to 99 and his botERA is up from 3.59 to 4.12 in his last two starts compared to the first 16.
Pick: Mariners ML -102 (Play to +105)
Cubs vs. Twins
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +115 | 9 -105o / -115u | -145 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -140 | 9 -105o / -115u | +120 |
Shota Imanaga vs. Simeon Woods Richardson
Both of these starters have a fly-ball profile (56.5% for Shota Imanaga, 48.9% for Simeon Woods Richardson), and the wind will be blowing out (eight mph to right field) in Minnesota today.
Imanaga's velocity and stuff remains down following his injured-list stint and rehab. I wasn't initially concerned given that the injury was a hamstring strain, but his average fastball sits at 90.5 mph since then with a Stuff+ of 91 and a botERA of 4.34.
Before the injured list, Imanaga's fastball was 91.2 mph (91.7 in 2024) with a Stuff+ of 99 and a 2.76 botERA.
The Cubs' bullpen remains sketchy at best, as it's 24th in xFIP and 27th in K-BB%. They've had better splits lately, but I don't trust their arms or project them better than an average unit.
Meanwhile, the Twins have a well-rested, elite bullpen that's second in xFIP, fifth in K-BB%, first in Pitching+ and fifth in botERA.
The Minnesota lineup is as healthy as it's been all year, especially with Royce Lewis back from the injured list.
The Cubs' offense is red-hot, too, with a 132 wRC+ over the last 14 days (first in the MLB).
I like the Twins on the moneyline and the over, as I project the Twins at +105 and the total at 9.54.
Pick: Twins ML (Play to +115) | Over 9 to -110
Braves vs. Athletics
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 10.5 -105o / -115u | -115 |
| Athletics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 10.5 -105o / -115u | -105 |
Didier Fuentes vs. Jeffrey Springs
The updated Sutter Health Park Factors are +25% Runs (tied with CoorsField), +3% singles (ninth), +37% doubles (first), +9% home runs (ninth), +9% walks (fourth) and -5% strikeouts (23rd). Overs are 25-19-1 this season, but unders are on a 5-1-1 run at Sutter Health Park.
This is the new best offensive venue in the MLB, and it's heading into one of its hottest months of the year.
As for the Braves' starter, Didier Fuentes has electric stuff (110 Stuff+), but his command is a liability. He regularly has had three-ball counts through three starts, and the K% and BB% Park Factors in Sacramento indicate that the minor-league mound may not be up to MLB standards.
Fuentes has a 106 Stuff+ when throwing his fastball, 116 for his slider and 117 on his curveball. He also has a 96 Location+ and 24.5% Called Strike plus Whiff Percentage.
Tuesday's weather will be 86 degrees with nine mph winds. I'm still using closer to a +10% Park Factor (than +25%) in my model, but it's closer to +20% for Tuesday with the wind blowing out.
I'm projecting 10.97 runs, so take the over to 10.5.
Pick: Over 10 (Play to 10.5)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Tuesday, July 8
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- Rays ML +108 (Play to -103) & F5 +107 small to -105
- Mariners ML (+110 to +105)
- Twins ML (+120 to +115)
- Rays vs. Tigers Over 8.5 (+102 to -105)
- Cubs vs. Twins Over 9 (+100 to -110)
- Blue Jays vs. White Sox Over 8.5 (-115) to 9 (-110)
- Nationals vs. Cardinals Under 8.5 (-110) to -115
- Rangers vs. Angels Over 8 (-110) to 8.5 (+100)
- Diamondbacks vs. Padres Over 7.5 (-119) to 8 (-108)
- Braves vs. Athletics Over 10 (-119) to 10.5 (-108)
