Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Tuesday, June 17.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
For Tuesday, I preview Angels vs. Yankees, Orioles vs. Rays, Brewers vs. Cubs and Royals vs. Rangers. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Tuesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Tuesday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Tuesday, June 17
Angels vs. Yankees
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +106 | 9.5 -100o / -122u | +215 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -128 | 9.5 -100o / -122u | -260 |
Kyle Hendricks vs. Will Warren
For this game, it'll be 71 degrees with the wind blowing in from right field. However, there will be high humidity (typically 65% in June, but 80% on Tuesday). That 15% rise in humidity adds roughly 13.2 feet in flyball distance.
Kyle Hendricks currently has a 5.20 ERA, 4.16 xERA, 4.96 xFIP and 7.6% K-BB% with a career-high 43.6% FB% (33% career) and 1.52 HR/9 (1.07 career). The Angels need length from him, as the bullpen is tired after going extra innings on Monday.
Kenley Jansen and Brock Burke have pitched back-to-back days and Hunter Strickland has taken the bump three times in four days. Plus, the next off day the Angels have is June 26, so they need to recoup their pen quickly.
Ben Rice (25%), Austin Wells (23.4%) and Cody Bellinger (23.4%) lead the team as dinger targets and each have above-average Pull AIR%. If I'm taking one player to hit a home run, I prefer Rice (+500).
The Angels' offense is good (projected 104 wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching), but they're terrible defensively (27th in DRS and OAA).
Zach Neto is +7 in Defensive Runs Saved, but he's awful everywhere else.
Meanwhile, Logan O'Hoppe (-11) is a liability behind the dish, as he's cost his pitchers 29 strikes vs. the average and has a career 15% caught stealing rate. He's in the third percent in blocking, eighth percent in framing and 21st% in pop time.
My projected total is 9.82 runs, so bet the over 9 to -120.
Pick: Over 9 (Play to -120)
Orioles vs. Rays
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 9 -120o / 100u | +110 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 9 -120o / 100u | -130 |
Dean Kremer vs. Zack Littell
First, let's start with the weather, which will feel like 94 degrees with the wind blowing out four mph. That's comparable weather to Monday's game, but Tuesday's starters are worse.
Zach Eflin and Ryan Pepiot have a combined weighted ERA of around 3.9, while Dean Kremer and Zack Littell have combined for 4.48.
Steinbrenner Field is +19% for home runs, which also sets us up nicely for the over here.
Also, Littell has a home run issue, as he's posting a career high 2.18 HR/9 (1.49 career) even though it's not related to his new home environment (1.60 at home, 2.66 on the road).
Kremer is also below average (1.36 HR/9, 1.32 career vs. 1.10 league-wide) in limiting the long ball.
On Monday, this matchup was a 7-1 through five innings, but five double plays kept the game under the total of 8.5. Thus, we're going to see a regression to the mean here.
Finally, Cedric Mullins (31.7% Pull AIR%) and Brandon Lowe (23.7%) set up nicely to do damage via a short porch versus right-handed pitching.
I projected 9.53 runs on Monday (before umpire) vs. 8.7 on a weather-neutral day, and I make Tuesday’s game 9.81 (9.74 with a neutral umpire) vs. 8.9 on a weather-neutral day.
Bet the over to 9.5.
Pick: Over 9 (Play to 9.5)
Brewers vs. Cubs
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -164 | 9 -106o / -115u | +124 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +134 | 9 -106o / -115u | -151 |
Chad Patrick vs. Ben Brown
The top two defensive clubs in my model face off on Tuesday, as the Cubs are third in OAA and eighth in DRS, while the Brewers are third in OAA and 15th in DRS.
I would project the total at 9.4 with average defensive teams, but for this one, my model is projecting 8.76 runs.
These bullpens are well-rested after an off day on Monday, and both are pitching well. Over the last 30 days, Milwaukee is third in xFIP and seventh in K-BB%, while Chicago is seventh and 14th, respectively.
Chad Patrick (3.78 xERA, 15% K-BB%) leads NL rookies in WAR (1.7) with an elite cutter (112 Stuff+ and fastball (104 Stuff+). He has a 27% ground-ball percentage, which is the lowest among qualified starting pitchers. He generates a lot of pop-ups (14%), too.
This play triggers the "Wrigley Field Unders" system, which has a +15.5% ROI since 2005.
Pick: Under 9
Royals vs. Rangers
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -189 | 8.5 -102o / -119u | +111 |
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +154 | 8.5 -102o / -119u | -136 |
Seth Lugo vs. Jack Leiter
Jack Leiter (3.88 ERA, 4.85 xERA, 7.3% K-BB%, 110 Stuff+, 89 Location+, 4.14 botERA) has significant upside (124 Stuff+ fastball, 106 Slider, 104 Sinker, 107 Change), but his command is extremely wonky.
This is an ideal matchup for him, as the Kansas City offense isn't patient, with the fourth-highest swing rate (48.5%) and chase rate (33.3%). The Royals are also 30th in walk rate (6.3%).
They've also been worse over the last 30 days in these categories (49.2% swing, 34.7% chase, 5.3% BB%).
Seth Lugo is a regression candidate, as he has a .242 BABIP (.283 career) and 84.4% strand rate (76.6% career). His ERA is 3.18, but he also has a 5.34 xERA and a 4.83 botERA.
Lugo ran hot with a 3.00 ERA in 2024, but he still carried a 3.75 xERA and a 4.29 botERA.
His K-BB% is down to career-low 10.7% and his hard-hit rate is up to career-high 47.6% (16.9% and 38%, respectively, for his career).
The Rangers' offense is finally awakening, as it has a 115 wRC+ (fifth) in June. It's also sixth in BB%, fifth in K% and eighth in ISO over that span. It's crushing right-handed pitching (125 wRC+, fourth), but left-handed pitching is still an issue (68 wRC+).
Corey Seager (52 wRC+) has barely contributed over that span, while Marcus Semien (158 wRC+ in the last 30 days) is red-hot.
I'm taking the Rangers on the moneyline, as I'm projecting them at -145.
Pick: Rangers ML -130 (Play to -133)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Tuesday, June 17
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Angels-Yankees Over 9 (-113 to -120)
- Nationals-Rockies Over 9.5 (+100 to -107)
- Orioles-Rays Over 9 (-120) to 9.5 (-103)
- Brewers-Cubs Under 9.5 (-110) to 9 (+100)
- Rangers ML (-124 to -133)
