Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Tuesday, October 7.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Tuesday, I preview Mariners vs. Tigers and Blue Jays vs. Yankees. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Tuesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Tuesday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Tuesday, October 7
Series Moneyline Corner
I show a slight edge relative to the Dodgers' updated series price, listed at -1100 (91.7% implied) at both DraftKings and Caesars. Still, that's less than half a percentage point of projected value compared to my number, at a substantial discount, and I'd rather continue to look toward the Dodgers in the futures markets instead.
Their projections stood between -109 and -148 for the NL Pennant (listed at +105) and +212 to +132 to win the World Series (listed at +260) before Game 2. Those improved to ranges of -169 to -218 to win the NL, and +156 to -102 to win the World Series, after taking a 2-0 series lead home to Los Angeles.
If you take the midpoint of those ranges, you can still justify the NL Pennant value on the Dodgers to -175, and on their World Series odds to +133. There's nearly twice as big an edge in the World Series market at current odds, and I would allocate toward their World Series chances before Game 3 — the most significant favorite they will be in this series.
Bet half to three-quarters of a unit before Game 3, with the option to add more later.
The Brewers re-opened at -750 or higher after Game 2, and I don't see value in their updated series odds.
The Blue Jays (projected -597, listed -525 at Caesars) are the only team of the eight I see with a projectable edge compared to their listed series odds. Still, I also show value in their Game 3 odds, both at plus money and with a more significant projected edge.
The Tigers-Mariners series is essentially a coin flip headed to Detroit, with Tarik Skubal slated to start a potential Game 5 back in Seattle. However, I don't see an edge on the series line, correct score props, or Game 3 moneyline.
Mariners vs. Tigers
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | -135 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | +115 |
Logan Gilbert vs. Jack Flaherty
I don't project value on the side or the total for Game 3 — either for the first five innings (F5) or the whole game — between the Mariners and Tigers.
I set the Mariners as -124 road favorites and projected a total of 7.46 runs. I'm assuming that Josh Naylor, who did not travel with the Mariners to Detroit, will miss Games 3 and 4 as his wife is expecting the birth of their first child.
I didn't anticipate that the Mariners would save arguably their best available pitcher, Logan Gilbert (3.03 xERA, 2.95 xFIP, 26.5% K-BB%), for Game 3. Gilbert has a decent home/road split (xFIP 0.6 runs higher from 3.24 to 3.82, and K-BB% 5.5% lower from 23.7% to 18.2%, on the road than at home for his career), though perhaps not as pronounced as Game 1 and 2 starters, George Kirby and Luis Castillo.
Since the start of last season, Gilbert ranks 6th among qualified starters — between Logan Webb and Zack Wheeler — with a 3.05 xFIP, and he's tied with Wheeler for third in K-BB% (24.3%) over the same span.
This is a plus matchup for him, facing an offense that struggles with righties (19th on the season, 24th, 89 wRC+ after the trade deadline) and strikes out a ton (28th vs. RHP after the deadline), even at home.
Conversely, the Mariners significantly improve their own K% on the road, finishing 13th in away strikeout rate (24.3%) vs. right-handed pitching compared to 28th (22.2%) at home.
T-Mobile Park in Seattle has the highest strikeout factor (+17% over the past three seasons) by a wide margin; hitters struggle to see the ball there. Conversely, Comerica Park has a below-average strikeout factor (-3% over the same span) and should play closer to neutral.
The Mariners utilized their high-leverage arms extensively in the first two games of the series, deploying Matt Brash, Andres Munoz, Gabe Speier, and Eduard Bazardo on consecutive days. And Gilbert, crucially, has not shown a significant platoon split (career 3.44 xFIP vs. lefties, 3.63 vs. righties, and K-BB% within 1.1%).
As a result, I expect a longer leash for Gilbert on Tuesday in what will be his only start of the series. Take Over 15.5 Outs to -140, and Over 6.5 Strikeouts to -125.
Conversely, I'd like to fade Flaherty's strikeout prop and play Under 5.5 Strikeouts at -185 rather than fading his outs prop at 14.5 again. Kyle Finnegan (worked four times in five days), Brant Hurter (consecutive over the weekend), and Tyler Holton (three appearances in five days) could also use a rest, and A.J. Hinch had a much quicker hook with Flaherty in a winner-take-all Wild Card Game 3 than he will on Tuesday.
Picks: Logan Gilbert Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (-105 | Bet to -140), Logan Gilbert Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+100 | Bet to -125), Jack Flaherty Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-133 | Bet to -185)
Blue Jays vs. Yankees
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +130 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -155 |
Shane Bieber vs. Carlos Rodon
I project an edge both on the Blue Jays ML and the Over for Game 3 in the Bronx, with the Yankees needing three consecutive wins to advance to the ALCS for the second straight year, and third time in four years.
I give Carlos Rodon (3.31 xERA, 3.89 xFIP, 16.5% K-BB%, 104 Stuff+, 4.13 botERA) the starting pitching edge over Shane Bieber (4.58 xERA, 3.35 xFIP, 18.9% K-BB%, 92 Stuff+, 4.29 botERA). I show an even more significant edge for the Yankees' bullpen compared to the Blue Jays' bullpen, too (NYY 5th in bullpen xFIP, 6th in K-BB%, 12th in Pitching+ post-deadline; TOR 15th, 26th, and 23rd respectively).
Despite their blowout wins, the Blue Jays still managed to use Seranthony Dominguez and Louis Varland on consecutive days — while deploying all of their high leverage arms at least once — whereas the Yankees burned Will Warren and Paul Blackburn in long relief (and deployed a struggling Luke Weaver in both games).
Down 2-0 in the series, the Yankees will commit to their best arms in this game, but if the Blue Jays fall behind, they'll likely utilize their "B" bullpen and reallocate their best arms toward Game 4, if not leave Shane Bieber out to dry.
While Bieber has retained good command after his injuries, his statcast batted ball metrics have arguably never been more concerning:
Bieber — and the other right-handed Blue Jays pitchers — keep the Yankees in their lesser (though still potent) split; the Yankees finished as the No. 1 offense against lefties both this season and after the trade deadline (130 wRC+), compared to 5th (118 wRC+) against righties.
Toronto had a top offense against both right-handed (113 wRC+) and left-handed (111 wRC+) pitching all season, one which improved in the second half (117 vs. righties, 116 vs. lefties).
Moreover, the Blue Jays' defensive alignment — particularly with their left-handed platoon lineup, which features Myles Straw — could be the best defensive lineup in baseball this year, one through nine. In terms of win probability, their defensive edge over the Yankees is worth more than the Yankees' home-field advantage in Games 3 or 4.
I projected the Blue Jays as +110 underdogs to sweep and would bet their Game 3 moneyline to +120.
I also set the total at 8.22 runs, and would bet Over 7.5 to 8 (+100), with ten mph winds blowing out to left field.
Pick: Blue Jays ML (+130 | Bet to +120) & Over 7.5 (-110 | Bet to 8 +100)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Tuesday, October 7
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Sides and Totals
- Blue Jays / Yankees Over 7.5 (-110, 0.5u) at BetRivers; bet to 8 (+100)
- Toronto Blue Jays (+130, 1u) at Caesars; bet to +120
Player Props
- Jack Flaherty Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-133, 0.1u) at DraftKings; bet to -185
- Logan Gilbert Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+100, 0.1u) at BallyBet; bet to -125
- Logan Gilbert Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (-105, 0.1u) at Fanatics; bet to -140
Futures and Props
- World Series: Los Angeles Dodgers (+175, 0.5u) at FanDuel; bet to +133
