Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Wednesday, August 6.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Wednesday, I preview Orioles vs. Phillies, Giants vs. Pirates, and Reds vs. Cubs. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Wednesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Wednesday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Wednesday, August 6
Orioles vs. Phillies
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +190 | 8.5 -102o / -118u | +125 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -250 | 8.5 -102o / -118u | -150 |
LHP Trevor Rogers (BAL) vs. LHP Ranger Suarez (PHI)
We have two southpaw starters on the mound for this game, which puts both offenses in their lesser split.
Orioles starter Trevor Rogers is in the best form he’s been in since his rookie year. He’s been lucky (.185 BABIP, 84.6% strand), but his underlying indicators are still high-end (3.29 xERA, 3.69 xFIP, 3.48 botERA, 16.7% K-BB).
Phillies starter Ranger Suarez is also in career-best form (3.12 xERA, 3.56 xFIP, 16.6% K-BB, 105 Pitching+) behind a career-low 29.2% hard-hit rate allowed.
We’ll have a pitcher-friendly umpire behind the plate in Alex MacKay (career 36-24-6 to the Under, +13.5 ROI; +2.4% K-BB compared to MLB average).
I project 7.49 runs for this game.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-110 | Play to 8 -110)
Giants vs. Pirates
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +115 | 8 100o / -120u | -155 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -140 | 8 100o / -120u | +125 |
LHP Robbie Ray (SFG) vs. LHP Andrew Heaney (PIT)
Giants starter Robbie Ray is struggling with command lately, and he’s lost a tick of velocity across his past few starts.
Pirates starter Andrew Heaney has also been struggling, posting lackluster stats over the past few months (6.70 ERA, 4.93 xFIP, 10.6% K-BB). However, the southpaw puts the Giants in their much lesser split (70 wRC+ against the side over the past month).
The Pirates have the defensive edge in this game as a top-five unit (fifth in DRS, fourth in OAA), and the Giants' bullpen is significantly weaker after they traded away some key pieces at the deadline (4.87 xFIP, 4.26 botERA over the past week).
I project the Pirates ML at +113.
Pick: Pirates ML (+135 | Play to +122)
Reds vs. Cubs
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | +115 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | -135 |
LHP Andrew Abbott (CIN) vs. RHP Cade Horton (CHC)
The wind is projected to be blowing in from right field at around seven MPH, triggering our Action Labs Systems for Wrigley Field Unders.
This system is 26-13-2 (+26.9% ROI) over the past two years.
After adjusting for the weather, I project 7.14 runs for this game.
In my opinion, the Cubs have the National League’s best lineup. However, they’re slumping, posting a 96 wRC+ over the past month.
Reds starter Andrew Abbott continues to overperform at insane levels (2.15 ERA, 3.32 xERA, 4.35 xFIP, 4.13 botERA). He’s an anomaly who should continue to overperform because he’s so excellent at suppressing hard contact.
Pick: Under 8 (-110 | Play to 7.5 -103)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Wednesday, August 6
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- Pirates ML (+135 | Play to +122)
- Rays ML (-110 | Play to -115)
- Orioles vs. Phillies Under 8.5 (-110 | Play to 8 -110)
- Reds vs. Cubs Under 8 (-110 | Play to 7.5 -103)
- Guardians vs. Mets Under 8 (-110 | Play to -115)
