Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Wednesday, July 9.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
For Wednesday, I preview Rays vs. Tigers, Mets vs. Orioles and Braves vs. Athletics. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Wednesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Wednesday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Wednesday, July 9
Rays vs. Tigers
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 8 -118o / -102u | +125 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 8 -118o / -102u | -150 |
Zack Littell vs. Reese Olson
Zack Littell has altered his pitch mix and improved his underlying indicators in-season.
Through May 20 (40% slider usage, 24% splitter, 13% sinker), he was posting a 4.25 ERA, 4.50 xFIP and 11.7% K-BB%.
Since that date (30% slider, 29% splitter, 18% sinker), he's recording a 2.63 ERA, 3.74 xFIP and 16.5% K-BB%.
The splitter (106 Stuff+) is his only pitch that grades out as a plus offering.
I prefer the Rays' lineup and bullpen in a vacuum. Over the last 30 days, the Rays are No. 1 in wRC+ (127) and tied for fifth in xFIP and K-BB%.
They'll be without Brandon Lowe, though, who's posting a 149 wRC+ against right-handed pitching.
Over the last 30 days, Detroit is fourth offensively in wRC+ (121), but now it's without Kerry Carpenter (125 wRC+ vs. right-handers).
Meanwhile, the Detroit bullpen is 10th in xFIP and 19th in K-BB% over the last 30 days.
The Rays need to weaponize speed against Tigers catcher Jake Rogers, as they currently project as the No. 1 base-running team in the MLB (fourth on the season).
Josh Lowe, Ha-Seong Kim, Jake Mangum, Jose Caballero and especially Chandler Simpson (99th percentile sprint speed) are difference makers.
Rogers is a good pitch framer, but he's average when it comes to stolen base prevention. He has a career +15 Defensive Runs Saved from framing, but he's neutral when it comes to stolen base runs saved.
He's -5 since the MLB began limiting pickoffs in 2023 (-4 in 2023, +1 in 2024 and -1 in 2025). He has a 26% Caught Stealing Rate, and the league average is 28.5% since Rogers debuted.
I'm projecting the Rays at +116 on the moneyline, so bet this to +125.
Pick: Rays ML (Play to +125)
Mets vs. Orioles
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +110 | 10 -110o / -110u | -145 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -135 | 10 -110o / -110u | +120 |
David Peterson vs. Tomoyuki Sugano
David Peterson is struggling with his command as of late. Over his last four starts, Peterson has posted 12 walks to 16 strikeouts in 22 1/3 innings pitched.
His ERA has climbed from 2.49 to 3.18 since those outings, and he had previously shown a 1.5-run gap between his ERA and xERA (4.18), which is finally regressing.
He has a sub-MLB average K-BB% (13.4%) over the past two seasons (13.3% career, 10.8% in 2024, 11.6% in 2025). The models remain skeptical, too, as he has a 89 Stuff+ and 4.51 botERA in 2025 compared to a 90 Stuff+ and 4.82 botERA for his career.
On the flip side, Tomoyuki Sugano is finally getting shelled, too. He has 13 earned runs in his last two starts, and he had a 3.55 ERA vs. a 4.53 xFIP before those outings. His 5.77 xERA says the floor is the ceiling, but modeling metrics are half decent on him (100 Pitching+, 4.48 botERA).
He has a wide range of projections, including a 5.50 FIP from The BAT and a 4.91 FIP from Steamer.
Flipping to the bullpens, these teams used 11 relievers combined in an extra-inning affair on Tuesday.
Baltimore used Yennier Cano and Gregory Soto for the third time in four days, while Felix Bautista, Bryan Baker and Andrew Kittredge worked for the third time in five days. The Orioles desperately need length from Sugano.
The Mets are better rested, but they've fallen from a clear tied-for-fifth in the league (or better) to 15th in xFIP and 14th in K-BB% over the last 30 days.
I'm projecting 10.51 runs, so take the over to 10.
Pick: Over 9.5 (Play to 10)
Braves vs. Athletics
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 10.5 -118o / -102u | -120 |
| Athletics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 10.5 -118o / -102u | +100 |
Bryce Elder vs. Mitch Spence
Bryce Elder is replacement level when he doesn’t get bailout double plays (career 50% ground-ball percentage), and he currently has a 5.92 ERA, 5.99 xERA and 10.7% K-BB% in 2025.
FIP Projections for Elder sit between 4.22 and 4.57, but I would take the over on those numbers, as he's currently sitting at 5.51 and his career mark is 4.57.
He has no plus pitches in his arsenal (90 Stuff+ overall), as his best pitch is a 98 Stuff+ slider.
He has a career-best 4.68 botERA with improved Location+ ratings, but his career 4.57 FIP and 5.05 botERA paint a bleaker portrait.
I prefer Mitch Spence (5.01 xERA, 13.2% K-BB%, 104 Pitching+, 3.73 botERA), who has a good slider (109 Stuff+) and curve (118) and a higher overall ceiling as a result.
Also, the Athletics' bullpen seems underrated, as it's more than just Mason Miller. Over the last 30 days, the A's pen is 12th in xFIP and seventh in K-BB%.
They turned Sean Newcomb into a left-handed reliever who's now posting a 103 Pitching+, 3.49 botERA and 3.99 xFIP. J.T. Ginn has a nasty sinker for jams and an elite combo consisting of a 21% K-BB% and 49% ground-ball percentage.
To reiterate from Tuesday, this is the new best offensive venue in the MLB, and it's heading into its hottest month of the year.
The updated Sutter Health Park Factors include +25% runs (tied with Coors Field), +3% singles (ninth), +37% Doubles (first), +9% HRs (ninth), +9% Walks (fourth) and -5% strikeouts (23rd). Overs are 26-19-1 at the park, as well.
It's still using closer to a +10% Park Factor than the +25% in my model as a baseline before weather.
Tuesday's weather was 86 degrees (felt like 81) with nine mph winds.
Meanwhile, Wednesday will be 92 degrees (feels like 90) with five mph winds.
I'm projecting the Athletics as slight favorites, and I'm also projecting 11 runs, giving us good value on both picks.
Pick: Athletics ML (Play to +103) | Over 10.5 (-110)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Wednesday, July 9
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Rays ML (+132 to +125)
- Athletics ML (+115 to +105)
- Dodgers F5 (-152 flat to -170)
- Phillies F5 (-140 flat to -150)
- Mets vs. Orioles Over 9.5 (-103) to 10 (-110)
- Cubs vs. Twins Under 9 (+100 to -105)
- Braves vs. Athletics Over 10.5 (-105 to -110)
