Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Wednesday, October 8.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Wednesday, I preview Mariners vs. Tigers, Brewers vs. Cubs, Blue Jays vs. Yankees, and Phillies vs. Dodgers. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Wednesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Wednesday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Wednesday, October 8
Series Moneyline Corner
The Yankees more than doubled their chances – from 14.3% to 30% – with their comeback win in Game 3. While I do show an edge on Toronto's series price (projected -233, listed -220 at DraftKings), I also align with the market for Game 4, implying that I'll show an edge on Toronto's moneyline at home if the series makes it to Game 5 (with Kevin Gausman and Trey Yesavage both available for the Blue Jays).
Regardless of whether you have a series wager on Toronto or not from before Game 1, I'd pass on the Blue Jays series price for now and wait for a better spot straight up in Game 5, unless you can find Toronto 3-2 at +250 or better.
The Mariners moved from 53% to 75% with their Game 3 win, and they moved to -330 or higher in the betting market. Still, I make the final two games of the series near coinflips, and the Yankees will likely be favored in each of their potential remaining games against the Blue Jays; both ALDS matchups are far from decided.
My series projections for the Dodgers and Brewers tightened relative to Tuesday's projections after re-assessing likely Game 3 pitcher usage.
I still don't see an edge in either series line, but would reiterate the actionable value on the Dodgers in the pennant and World Series markets.
Updated projections would place their consensus pennant odds at -181 (high of -212, low of -166) – compared to listed odds as low as -145 at DraftKings. You can take them to -165 before Game 3, or wait for a better price after a potential loss. I recommended the Dodgers at +320 before the playoffs began.
Additionally, their consensus World Series odds are +134 (high of +108, low of +160), and you can take those to +145 before Game 3, or wait for a better price after a potential loss. I recommended that line at +175 on Tuesday, and it has already dropped to +160 at the same two books that offered +175.
Brewers to win their series 3-1 – with Freddy Peralta back on complete rest in Game 4 – seems like a worthy poke as high as +300 (25% implied) compared to my projected line at +269 (27.1% implied).
Mariners vs. Tigers
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -210 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -105 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +170 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -115 |
Bryce Miller vs. Casey Mize
I don't project value on either the pre-game side or the total for Game 4, setting the contest as nearly a true coin flip (Mariners 50.5%) and putting the total at 8.62 runs.
I would consider betting on Seattle at +108 or better (48% implied) at a two percent edge compared to my projection. I would have also liked to bet the Over, but I aligned with the opening number (Over 8.5, -105/-115).
The high-leverage arms on both sides should be relatively exhausted. Seattle has used Andres Munoz, Matt Brash, and Eduard Bazardo in each of the first three games of this series. And while Detroit has only used Brant Hurter across all three games, Tommy Kahnle, Tyler Holton, and Kyle Finnegan have each worked three times in the past six days, dating back to the Wild Card Round.
Like most of the Mariners' arms, Bryce Miller has shown a noticeable home/road split throughout his career (3.84 xFIP, 18.4% K-BB% at home; 4.55 xFIP, 12.5% K-BB% on the road), but as I noted yesterday, their offense also travels extremely well.
After the trade deadline — when the Mariners added Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez — they ranked fourth at home (119 wRC+), but 27th in strikeout rate (24.5%). They were also fourth on the road (116 wRC+) but finished 14th in K% (23.6%).
Seattle's bevvy of right-handed arms keeps the Tigers in their weaker split; Detroit finished 24th post-deadline against righties (89 wRC+), while ranking 27th in K% (25.9%), compared to 4th (116 wRC+) and 15th (22.1%) against left-handed pitchers.
Bryce Miller's numbers were down this season (5.32 xERA, 5.17 xFIP, 4.36 botERA), with a 10.2% K-BB rate compared to 3.71, 3.85, and 3.25, respectively, in 2024. He also experienced a two-month stint with elbow inflammation.
Still, Miller regained some velocity in the minors, which he carried back to the majors (+0.5 mph) he and returned with capable numbers in August and September (4.06 xFIP, 13.6% K-BB%, 104 Stuff+, 102 Pitching+, 3.89 botERA) after a dismal three months to begin the year (5.07 xFIP, 7.4% K-BB%, 101 Stuff+, 95 Pitching+, 4.72 botERA).
Take Miller Over 3.5 Strikeouts up to -140 in a plus matchup.
Casey Mize produced slightly better results for the duration of the season (3.70 xFIP, 3.97 xFIP, 16.4% K-BB%, 103 Pitching+, 4.04 botERA).
While I would still tend to reduce his usage in an elimination game, particularly after recording just nine outs in Wild Card Game 2 and being pushed back behind Jack Flaherty in the divisional round rotation, the Tigers don't necessarily have the long relievers to get through this game unless Mize pitches into the fourth.
I feel that the number on his outs recorded prop (9.5) is too low, and likely a market overcorrection after he went well under 14.5 in his last start. Additionally, however, Mize's strikeout prop is a touch too high at 3.5 if he is indeed pitching just three innings. We'll try to thread the needle with his Over Outs, and under strikeouts to +100 and -185, respectively.
Lastly, I'm interested in waiting for a live Over 7, given the state of these bullpens.
Pick: Bryce Miller Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-118 | Play to -140) | Casey Mize Over 9.5 Outs Recorded (+135 | Bet to +100) | Casey Mize Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-138 | Bet to -185) | Live Over 7
Brewers vs. Cubs
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -220 | 7 105o / -125u | +105 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +180 | 7 105o / -125u | -125 |
Quinn Priester vs. Jameson Taillon
Live Unders would have done well in the first two games of Brewers-Cubs; the teams combined to score just six total runs after the second inning in both games, compared to 16 in the first and second innings.
I recommended the Under 8 in Game 2 on Monday, a bet which closed at 7.5 before getting cooked with a pair of three-run homers in the first inning. Still, the market movement was a strong indicator that we were directionally correct with the bullpen game assessment, which played out to expectations after Aaron Ashby's disastrous first inning.
After an off-day on Monday, both teams should have more than enough capable, high-leverage arms for Game 3, and the Cubs need to be aggressive with their pitching usage, with their backs against the wall in an elimination game.
There are reasons to like the Under on a team level, independent of the spot.
As I mentioned on Monday, these teams featured a pair of top ten bullpens in the second half (the Cubs finished No. 1 in bullpen xFIP and K-BB% in the second half, while the Brewers ranked second in Pitching+ and 3rd in botERA by both first and second-half splits).
Moreover, they also each rank as top five (if not top three) defensive teams in my model; Chicago finished third in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and second in Outs Above Average this season, while Milwaukee ranked 11th and fifth, respectively.
Additionally, Wednesday's weather is extremely pitcher-friendly (62 degrees at first pitch, with 8 mph winds blowing in). It has triggered a trio of Acion Labs systems for unders, including two related to wind and weather, which have performed well at Wrigley Field.
The Wind Blowing In (PRO) system has a record of 148-102-19 (59.2% win) at Wrigley Field since 2005 (37-20-3 over the past three seasons), generating a 13.5% ROI and a profit of +$3,626 for a consistent $100 bettor.
I project just 6.05 runs in this matchup and would bet the Under 7 at -130, or the Under 6.5 at -110.
Despite starting an elimination game, Taillon's projected usage — Over/Under 10.5 outs and 2.5 strikeouts — does seem potentially short given both the low total and his recent usage in a winner-take-all game against the Padres in the wild card round (12 outs, 60 pitches).
The Brewers likely want some length from Quinn Priester (3.62 xERA, 3.81 xFIP, 12.6% K-BB, 4.59 botERA), up 2-0 and coming off of a bullpen game on Monday, and again – given the low total – a pitcher's duel is far likelier.
Take Priester's Overs to even money and -125, respectively.
Pick: Under 7 (-124 | Bet to 6.5 -110) | Jameson Taillon Over 10.5 Outs Recorded (-105 | Bet to -125) | Jameson Taillon Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-118 | Bet to -140) | Quinn Priester Over 12.5 Outs Recorded (+121 | Bet to +100) | Quinn Priester Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-103 | Bet to -125)
Blue Jays vs. Yankees
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -135 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +155 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +115 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -180 |
Louis Varland vs. Cam Schlittler
The Blue Jays will attempt to win Game 4 with a highly uncertain pitching plan as of Wednesday night.
I'd project Eric Lauer (3.81 xERA, 4.15 xFIP, 17.8% K-BB%), who tossed 16 pitches in Game 2, to get the bulk innings work for the Blue Jays.
Still, Louis Varland (who will start Game 4) has already pitched in each of the first three games of this series, and the Yankees have already faced all of their other relievers, except for Yariel Rodriguez and Justin Bruihl, at least twice.
The Yankees used four relief pitchers in multi-inning stints on Tuesday, but each of those pitchers had Friday, Sunday, and Monday off, and should be ready to roll again for Wednesday's Game 4.
I'd typically show a significant edge for the Yankees' bullpen compared to the Blue Jays' bullpen (Yankees 5th in bullpen xFIP, 6th in K-BB%, 12th in Pitching+ post-deadline; Blue Jays 15th, 26th, and 23rd respectively), but see an even more signifficant gap — nearly a full run gap between these units in terms of a projected ERA — for Wednesday.
The Jays have fewer arms to relieve Lauer and avoid the Yankees' No. 1 ranking against left-handed pitching this season.
Moreover, Cam Schlittler (3.98 xERA, 3.74 xFIP, 17.4% K-BB%, 112 Stuff+, 3.85 botERA) is coming off a dominant effort in a winner-take-all game against the Red Sox (8 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 12 K).
Still, the Blue Jays faced Schlittler twice and mostly held him in check (5 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 3 K on 7/22; 1 2/3 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 2 K on 9/5).
Toronto's offense is tailor-made to frustrate Schlittler; the Blue Jays had the second-highest in-zone contact rate (87.8%) and the third-lowest swinging strike rate (9.4%) this season. And I'd have to consider Schlittler Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-153) and/or Under 14.5 Outs (-109) in an elimination game.
I projected the Yankees as -153 favorites and set the total at 8.07 runs, but I don't see value on either the side or the total at current odds.
However, I would bet Under 9 to -125 if the total moves up a half run for the second consecutive day, and I'd recommend betting Toronto small starting at +175, regardless of whether you have a series ticket from before Game 1.
Pick: Cam Schlittler Under 14.5 Outs Recorded (-102 | Bet to -125) | Cam Schlittler Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-152 | Bet to -185)
Phillies vs. Dodgers
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -135 | 8 100o / -120u | +150 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +115 | 8 100o / -120u | -180 |
Aaron Nola vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Like the Cubs, the Phillies cannot afford to give any of their pitchers too long a leash in an elimination game, and while Aaron Nola (4.25 xERA, 3.72 xFIP, 17.1% K-BB%,108 Pitching+, 3.34 botERA) will start Game 3, Ranger Suarez (3.15 xERA, 3.61 xFIP, 17.4% K-BB%, 107 Pitching+, 3.65 botERA) should be ready to take over as early as the second time through the order.
Nola was certainly unlucky this season (6.01 ERA) thanks to a .315 BABIP (.304 career), 62.4% strand rate (74.3% career), and an 18.2% HR/FB rate (14.1% career) – and his xERA was nearly two runs lower than his actual mark, but he's always shown sigifcant time through the order splits (3.11 XFIP, 24.2% K-BB% first time through; 3.86, 14.7% second time through; 4.35, 11% third time through).
And Suarez, who has bullpen experience, can help form a bridge to their high-leverage arms. He owns a significantly lower home run rate (career 0.83 HR/9) than Nola (career 1.34 HR/9; 1.72 in 2025), which is crucial both against the Dodgers nd their Game 3 starter.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (2.73 xERA, 3.05 xFIP, 3.49 botERA, 20.8% K-BB%, 110 Pitching+) has become one of my favorite pitchers to watch; his mechanics are incredibly smooth, and even when he gets himself into trouble early, he always settles into the game.
I noted before his wild card start that Dave Roberts has given Yamamoto — one of the best pitchers in the history of Japanese baseball — a significantly longer leash this season.
Yama has averaged 93 pitches per start this year, and 103.6 over his past five outings, compared to 81.6 per start during the 2024 regular season and 70.5 per start in the 2025 postseason.
If you haven't figured it out yet, Dave Roberts does not trust his bullpen. With Game 4 starter Tyler Glasnow unavailable, and the Dodgers less likely to utilize Roki Sasaki for the third time in five days, Yamamoto should be permitted another 100+ pitch outing.
His Over 17.5 outs prop is juiced (-155 best), but I would probably take it to -185 (65% implied) or look at Under 4.5 hits at the same price point.
Conversely, I would lean toward Nola Under 8.5 outs at plus money.
I projected 7.4 runs in this game and would bet Under 8 to -120.
Pick: Under 8 (-115 | Bet to -120) | Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-155 | Bet to -185) | Aaron Nola Under 8.5 Recorded Outs (+129 | Bet to +105)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Wednesday, October 8
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Sides and Totals
- Brewers/Cubs Under 7 (-124, Risk 1u) at BallyBet; bet to -130 or 6.5 -110
- Phillies/Dodgers Under 8 (-115, 0.5u) at Caesars; bet to -120
Player Props
- Aaron Nola Under 8.5 Outs Recorded (+129, 0.1u) at DraftKings; bet to +105
- Bryce Miller Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-118, 0.2u) at DraftKings; bet to -150
- Cam Schlittler Under 14.5 Outs Recorded (-102, 0.1u) at DraftKings; bet to -125
- Cam Schlittler Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-152, 0.1u) at DraftKings; bet to -185
- Casey Mize Over 9.5 Outs Recorded (+135, 0.1u); bet to +100
- Casey Mize Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-138, 0.1u); bet to -185
- Jameson Taillon Over 10.5 Outs Recorded (-105, 0.1u) at BetMGM; bet to -125
- Jameson Taillon Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-118, 0.1u) at BetMGM; bet to -140
- Quinn Priester Over 12.5 Outs Recorded (+121, 0.1u) at DraftKings; bet to +100
- Quinn Priester Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-103, 0.1u) at DraftKings; bet to -125
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-155, 0.1u) at BetMGM; bet to -185
Futures and Props
- NLDS Correct Series Score: Brewers 3-1 (+320, 0.15u) at Caesars; bet to +300
