MLB PrizePicks Today, Featuring Marcus Semien and Luis Arraez (Friday, August 4)
Pictured: Luis Arraez. (Photo by Sam Navarro/Getty Images)
We have a stacked 14-game MLB slate on Friday, which means there are plenty of entries to sift through on PrizePicks.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different player squares to pay out up to 10x your entry.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play provides lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. A Power Play is all-or-nothing.
Here’s how I would approach Friday's MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player picks in which you combine two or more entries together.
Marcus Semien Fantasy Score Less Than 7
The first installment of this three-game interleague series gets underway Friday evening with the AL West's Texas Rangers hosting the NL East's Miami Marlins.
Left-hander Jesus Luzardo takes the mound for Miami and should be a good candidate to back. Through 22 starts this season, the 25-year-old is 8-5 with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are also strong as he ranks in the 67th percentile or higher in xERA/xwOBA, xBA, K%, Whiff% and Chase Rate.
The first Texas hitter to fade is Marcus Semien. While Semien has put together a strong campaign, he has recorded seven or fewer fantasy points in four of his past six games.
Additionally, he has never faced Luzardo, so it may take a few at-bats to figure him out. Semien has been a regression candidate over the second half of the season with a .263 xBA and a .417 xSLG compared to his .278 BA and .454 SLG.
This regression could come against Luzardo, especially considering the fact that Semien's splits take a roughly 4% drop when facing left-handed pitching this season.
Corey Seager Fantasy Score Less Than 7.5
The other Rangers hitter to fade is Corey Seager.
Yes, Seager has been an absolute monster this season and would likely be the AL MVP if Shohei Ohtani weren't around. However, he doesn't fare as well against left-handed pitching.
Against Luzardo, Seager is 0-for-4 in his career with a .049 xBA, a .159 xSLG and a .329 xwOBA.
If Luzardo puts together another strong performance, it's plausible he'll shut down both Semien and Seager.
Luis Arraez Fantasy Score Less Than 6.5
We're also going to fade the Marlins' Luis Arraez.
Left-hander Jordan Montgomery, who put together a strong campaign for the St. Louis Cardinals with a 3.42 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP (21 starts), is set to make his Rangers debut.
Montgomery really started to put things together over the past two months and has posted a 2.47 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP over his past 11 starts. That success is likely to continue in Texas, especially against Miami.
Arraez is an on-base machine, but he still struggles to accumulate a lot of fantasy points due to his tendency to hit singles and the rest of the lineup's inability to do drive him home. He has recorded six or fewer fantasy points in four of his past six games.