MLB PrizePicks: How to Bet Pete Alonso & Anthony Rizzo

MLB PrizePicks: How to Bet Pete Alonso & Anthony Rizzo article feature image

Pictured: Pete Alonso. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)

  • Friday's MLB schedule features a full slate of games, which means there are plenty of PrizePicks offerings.
  • Tony Sartori has looked through the player props and found value on some Yankees and Mets hitters.
  • Continue reading for Sartori's PrizePicks plays and analysis.

We have a stacked 15-game Major League Baseball slate on Friday, which means there are plenty of entries to sift through on PrizePicks. A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different player squares to payout up to 10x your entry.

You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money if you do not nail every pick. A Power Play is all-or-nothing.

Here’s how I would approach Friday's MLB slate.

What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player picks in which you combine two or more entries together.

Pete Alonso Fantasy Score More Than 8

After a quick three-game road trip in Detroit, the New York Mets return home for a three-game series against the Colorado Rockies. Antonio Senzatela is slated to take the mound for Colorado.

This will be Senzatela's first start of the season after he tore his ACL last August. The right-hander should be a good fade candidate in this matchup.

Last season, Senzatela finished with a 3-7 record and posted a troubling 5.07 ERA with a 1.69 WHIP. His underlying metrics were even worse as he finished in the 13th percentile or lower in xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, K% and Whiff%.

In fact, since making his debut in 2017, Senzatela has never posted an xERA south of 4.32. The first Mets hitter to back in this contest is Pete Alonso.

Tied for second in the league in home runs (11), Alonso has posted a .250 BA, a .550 SLG and a .873 OPS this season. His underlying metrics suggest further positive regression could be likely.

This year, Alonso boasts a .286 xBA, a .600 xSLG and a .405 xwOBA. This positive regression could come to fruition against Senzatela, a guy whom Alonso possesses a .444 BA, a .556 SLG and a .427 wOBA against through nine career plate appearances.

Since 2021, Alonso has generated a .272 BA, a .512 SLG and a .854 OPS with 58 home runs against right-handed pitching.

Starling Marte Fantasy Score More Than 7.5

In a play with some solid correlation, we are going to back the guy who hits two spots ahead of Alonso in the Mets' batting order. While Starling Marte hasn't had a tremendous season, his underlying metrics suggest brighter days are ahead.

He ranks in the 57th percentile or higher in xwOBA, xBA and K%. Like Alonso, this positive regression could come against Senzatela, a guy Marte has previously dominated.

In 12 career plate appearances against the right-hander, Marte boasts an exceptional .636 BA, a 1.000 SLG and a .691 wOBA. When facing right-handed pitching since 2021, his splits illuminate an impressive .297 BA, a .445 SLG and an .810 OPS.

Additionally, Marte is always a threat to swipe a bag as he has done nine times through the first 27 games.

Anthony Volpe Fantasy Score Less Than 6.5

After rattling off two straight victories over the Cleveland Guardians, the New York Yankees hit the road to take on the Tampa Bay Rays. Yonny Chirinos, who is expected to go anywhere between three-to-five innings, will start for the Rays.

A bulk reliever who is excellent in his role, Chirinos is 1-0 with a 0.64 ERA and a 0.57 WHIP over four appearances. His underlying metrics suggest this domination is likely to continue as he ranks in the 70th percentile or higher in xERA/xwOBA and HardHit%.

Even if Chirinos only pitches a couple of innings, his fellow relievers should be able to hold up their end of the bargain. This season, the Rays' relief pitching ranks second in the league in ERA, first in BA, second in SLG and second in wOBA.

The first New York hitter we are fading in this contest is rookie shortstop Anthony Volpe, who has had a bit of a slow start to his inaugural campaign. Through 32 games, he possesses an underwhelming .221 BA, a .356 SLG and a .681 OPs.

Based on his underlying metrics, positive regression likely isn't coming anytime soon. Volpe ranks in the 33rd percentile or lower in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, K% and Whiff%.

Volpe has failed to clear this number in six of his past seven games.

Anthony Rizzo Fantasy Score Less Than 6.5

The other Yankees hitter we are fading is Anthony Rizzo. He has failed to reach this number in seven of his past 10 games and facing the mighty Tampa bullpen likely isn't the spot to turn that trend around.

Despite batting from the left side, Rizzo's splits have taken a roughly 14% dip when facing right-handed pitchers since 2021. Additionally, playing on the road hasn't been kind to Rizzo.

Since 2021, his splits have also taken an approximate 16% dip when playing away from Yankee Stadium. This drop in production shouldn't be that shocking given that the short porch in right field is a massive advantage for a hitter like Rizzo.

In 37 career plate appearances at Tropicana Field, Rizzo possesses a fade-worthy .091 BA, .212 SLG and a .374 OPS.

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