MLB PrizePicks Today for Friday, May 12, Featuring Luis Robert Jr., Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Dylan Buell/Getty Images. Pictured: Luis Robert Jr.
We have a stacked 15-game Major League Baseball slate on Friday, which means there are plenty of entries to sift through on PrizePicks.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different player squares to payout up to 10x your entry.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money if you do not nail every pick. A Power Play is all-or-nothing.
Here’s how I would approach Friday's MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player picks in which you combine two or more entries together.
Luis Robert Jr. Fantasy Score Less Than 6.5
The Chicago White Sox host the Houston Astros in the first installment of this three-game series. Slated to take the mound for Houston is right-hander J.P. France, who made his MLB debut last week against the Seattle Mariners.
France threw a gem in that debut performance, allowing zero runs on just three hits through five innings while striking out five. Boasting a five-pitch arsenal, France did a terrific job mixing his pitches and keeping Seattle hitters on their toes last week, something that could continue against Chicago.
The first White Sox hitter to fade on Friday is Luis Robert Jr.. While Robert enters this matchup in good form, now is the time to sell high against the right-handed France.
Since 2021, Robert's splits take approximately a 44% dip when facing right-handers. Additionally, Robert has never faced France in his career, so it may take a few turns through the batting order to figure him out, especially considering the five-pitch arsenal.
Andrew Benintendi Fantasy Score Less Than 7
The other Chicago hitter to fade in this contest is Andrew Benintendi. Unlike Robert, Benintendi enters this contest in poor form, failing to surpass this number in nine of his past 11 games.
This recent slide in production is not surprising given that his underlying metrics have suggested all season that regression is looming. Currently, Benintendi ranks in the 12th percentile or lower in HardHit%, xwOBA, xSLG, and Barrel%.
There is little reason to believe he will turn things around against the right-handed France. When facing right-handers this season, Benintendi's numbers take a roughly 17% dip to a .257 BA, .310 SLG and .616 OPS.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Fantasy Score More Than 7.5
The Miami Marlins host the Cincinnati Reds in the first installment of this three-game series. Slated to take the mound for Cincinnati is right-hander Graham Ashcraft, who got obliterated by the Chicago White Sox in his last start.
Before getting pulled in the second inning, Ashcraft surrendered eight runs on six hits. A poor outing had been due for the right-hander, whose underlying metrics suggested that regression was looming.
Further regression could hit in this matchup against Miami, especially considering his 42nd percentile ranking in xBA. The first Marlins hitter to back in this contest is Jazz Chisholm Jr.
When facing right-handed pitching since 2021, his splits jump by roughly 38% to a smooth .260 BA, .480 SLG and .803 OPS. Additionally, Chisholm is always a massive threat to swipe a bag, currently ranked third in the league with 13.
Luis Arraez Fantasy Score More Than 6.5
The other Miami hitter to back is Luis Arraez, who is off to a monster start in 2023. Through 34 games, Arraez leads the league with a spectacular .398 BA while boasting a terrific .488 SLG and .945 OPS.
His underlying metrics are also outstanding, ranking in the 83rd percentile or higher in xwOBA, xBA and K%. Like Chisholm Jr., Arraez thrives against right-handed pitching.
Since 2021, his splits take a roughly 20% jump when facing right-handers to a .329 BA, .430 SLG and .818 OPS. Despite failing to surpass this number in each of his past five games, now could be the time to buy low on Arraez, someone whose fantasy score entry typically bounces between seven and 7.5.
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